Will the "Peak Oil" Pinheads FINALLY Shut the Heck Up?

[roo_ster]

http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/128847/
http://www.npr.org/2011/09/25/140784004/new-boom-reshapes-oil-world-rocks-north-dakota

New Boom Reshapes Oil World, Rocks North Dakota. “Two years ago, America was importing about two thirds of its oil. Today, according to the Energy Information Administration, it imports less than half. And by 2017, investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts the US could be poised to pass Saudi Arabia and overtake Russia as the world’s largest oil producer. Places like Williston are the reason why.”

The US, Jaffe says, could have 2 trillion barrels of oil waiting to be drilled. South America could hold another 2 trillion. And Canada? 2.4 trillion. That’s compared to just 1.2 trillion in the Middle East and north Africa.

Peak Oil was always all wet, given that it did not take into account gov't action, market re-action, and technological advances in the industry.

Prediction:
Within 5-10 years, we will see $2/gal gasoline as the average that gets fluctuated about. 

This will occur because of:
1. Domestic US production
2. S American increases in oil production in Brazil & Venezuela after Pineapple Head II dies
3. The great belly flop Red China's economy is headed toward spikes Chinese demand.  (This assumes Red China does not react to that flop by starting WWIII.)

[Fitz]

The gas industry has not lowered prices when oil gets cheaper in recent memory, what makes you think that will change?

MY prediction, no matter how cheap crude gets, gasoline will stay where it's at and/or climb, because americans are dumb enough to pay it.

[MechAg94]

The gas industry has not lowered prices when oil gets cheaper in recent memory, what makes you think that will change?

MY prediction, no matter how cheap crude gets, gasoline will stay where it's at and/or climb, because americans are dumb enough to pay it.

Sure they have, it is just not quite the same market as crude oil.  On the other side, gas prices have no always gone up with crude oil fluctuations. 

[MechAg94]

Regarding #3, I would think a chinese civil war might be a possibility if their economy flops hard enough.

[just Warren]

The Peak Oilies and the rest of the eco-nmen won't shut up about it because it's not about saving energy it's about preventing regular folk from having easy and cheap access to energy.

Controlling a person's energy supply means you have a lot of control over the rest of his life.

It's the same template that gun control rests on, as well as this explosion in food nannyism, and even political correctness. It's all about closing doors and posting guards and making you pay politically by giving up freedom as well as economically for access to the fundamental stuff of life. Such as food, self-defense, free-expression and so on.

When you look back in history at societies that had centralized irrigation the people that controlled the water controlled everyone. Control the water control the food. Want to eat? Be my bitch.   

It's the exact same desire-to-control with energy supplies. 

[makattak]

The gas industry has not lowered prices when oil gets cheaper in recent memory, what makes you think that will change?

MY prediction, no matter how cheap crude gets, gasoline will stay where it's at and/or climb, because americans are dumb enough to pay it.

Someone doesn't understand how markets work.

If the prices are just going to stay up, can you explain why prices were higher than they are now 3 years ago and almost half of what they are now ~two years ago?

[wacki]

Will the "Peak Oil" Pinheads FINALLY Shut the Heck Up?

I have a problem with this title.  The oil industry was looking pretty scary not too long ago and the peak oil folks had some valid arguments.  The peak oil skeptics on the other hand weren't really acting like skeptics but more like deniers.  If they were skeptics they'd point to things like "fraking" and stuff.  Instead the loudest skeptics were acting like deniers and pointing to technologies that had no future (like the well touted and subsidized corn ethanol and hydrogen industries).  

Robert Rapier and the oildrum are two of the best sources of information on this topic (that I know of).  They allowed guests posts from just about any credible expert on the topic and had the scientific background to analyze it properly.

If you are going to denounce peak anything you need to say something like ... if prices get above XXX a gallon then technology Y, which has been proven in small scale, comes into play.. and it's perfectly scalable.

I didn't see a lot of that happening.  Instead, there were a lot of smart people that lost a lot of money betting on technologies that failed.  One of the most famous is Vinod Khosla.  

[brimic]

Peak Oilers are nothing but a different flavor of malthusians- they fail to take into account that there are many human brains out there that are thinking of much more useful things for society than their own.

[Tallpine]

At one point in history we were running out of whale oil 

[geronimotwo]

and at some point in our future we will run out of petrol.  i would prefer if we continued to use the rest of the worlds reserves before tapping all of ours.

[RevDisk]

and at some point in our future we will run out of petrol.  i would prefer if we continued to use the rest of the worlds reserves before tapping all of ours.

Out of natural, underground reserves of crude oil on Earth, you mean.  We don't technically have to run out of "petrol".

Hydrocarbons are simply carbon, hydrogen and oxygen.  (In practice, also nitrogen, sulfur, et al, but let's keep it simple.)   What is a large chunk of earth's atmo composed of?   If you have cheap enough energy, we can make a very large supply of relatively cheap hydrocarbons out of air.  Pick a corner of the US without too much NIMBY idiots, install a whole mess of nuclear plants (I'd do a mix of reactors so we could also do R&D on various designs) and start making hydrocarbons.  Expensive in the short run, necessary in the very long run.

It's quite amazing what humanity can do, and chooses not to do.

[MillCreek]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/business/energy-environment/using-water-to-turn-wood-chips-into-motor-fuel.html?_r=1&ref=science

A fascinating article on what may be a relatively cheap and environmentally-benign way to turn cellulosic waste into hydrocarbon feedstocks. 

Boy, if this can be economically done with less energy input than the feedstock output, how exciting.  In a nutshell, it uses supercritical water under pressure. 

[Regolith]

Out of natural, underground reserves of crude oil on Earth, you mean.  We don't technically have to run out of "petrol".

Hydrocarbons are simply carbon, hydrogen and oxygen.  (In practice, also nitrogen, sulfur, et al, but let's keep it simple.)   What is a large chunk of earth's atmo composed of?   If you have cheap enough energy, we can make a very large supply of relatively cheap hydrocarbons out of air.  Pick a corner of the US without too much NIMBY idiots, install a whole mess of nuclear plants (I'd do a mix of reactors so we could also do R&D on various designs) and start making hydrocarbons.  Expensive in the short run, necessary in the very long run.

It's quite amazing what humanity can do, and chooses not to do.

You can use organic garbage as well.  Basically, anything from the wood chips Mills talks about to tossed meat scraps, banana peals, whatever.  I remember reading about someone who was trying to start up a process for that back in 2003, but was having a hard time getting it cheap enough to compete with regular crude.

[Tallpine]

You can use organic garbage as well.  Basically, anything from the wood chips Mills talks about to tossed meat scraps, banana peals, whatever.

Mr. Fusion 

[Perd Hapley]

The peak oil skeptics on the other hand weren't really acting like skeptics but more like deniers.  

What is a "denier," please?

[Hawkmoon]

What is a "denier," please?

Someone who engages in denial?

[Tallpine]

What is a "denier," please?

An animal that lives in a den ...?   

[KD5NRH]

What is a "denier," please?

A French coin worth one twelfth of a sou, or one 240th of a pound of silver.  Roughly $1.99 at today's silver prices.  Thus a peak oil twit is worth less than a Taco Bell meal, despite having roughly the same effect on its victim's stomach.

AFAICT, peak oil is just the trendy (for over four decades now) secular version of "the end is near."  Unlike the EOTW crowd, they generally don't pin it to a specific date, though it's always within 5-10 years of the date of their prophecy.

[geronimotwo]

Out of natural, underground reserves of crude oil on Earth, you mean.  We don't technically have to run out of "petrol".

Hydrocarbons are simply carbon, hydrogen and oxygen.  (In practice, also nitrogen, sulfur, et al, but let's keep it simple.)   What is a large chunk of earth's atmo composed of?   If you have cheap enough energy, we can make a very large supply of relatively cheap hydrocarbons out of air.  Pick a corner of the US without too much NIMBY idiots, install a whole mess of nuclear plants (I'd do a mix of reactors so we could also do R&D on various designs) and start making hydrocarbons.  Expensive in the short run, necessary in the very long run.

It's quite amazing what humanity can do, and chooses not to do.

you would advocate using our atmosphere to replace oil?  i thought it was bad enough that we consider splitting H20. 

[Tallpine]

i thought it was bad enough that we consider splitting H20. 

Even worse is the emissions from burning hydrogen and oxgen: water vapor 

[geronimotwo]

we can get oxygen from trees.   where does the hydrogen come from?  as long as we are not using our finite water reserves.

[Scout26]

Rev wants to take all our air and turn into oil !!!  What will we breath ?!?!??!  OHTHENOES!!!!!!

Next he'll want to take all our precious fluids.


Oh, you mean we're already doing something like this to make fertilizers and other products?



NEVERMIND.....

[RaspberrySurprise]

you would advocate using our atmosphere to replace oil?  i thought it was bad enough that we consider splitting H20. 

we can get oxygen from trees.   where does the hydrogen come from?  as long as we are not using our finite water reserves.

I'm not sure if you're joking or serious...

[geronimotwo]

sorry, seriously, where does the hydrogen come from,  our finite supply of water?

[RevDisk]

sorry, seriously, where does the hydrogen come from,  our finite supply of water?

The oceans are kinda.... Big.   Plus most of the hydrogen would recombine with oxygen.