Author Topic: XKCD takes on global warming  (Read 18158 times)

Fly320s

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #50 on: September 14, 2016, 01:00:01 PM »
As a proud member of ICA (The International Chemtail Association, like us on Facebook), let me remind you that dimmer skies are safer skies.

 ;)

I'm a member, too.   :lol:
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RevDisk

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #51 on: September 14, 2016, 01:17:56 PM »
Bit of a strong response...

To clarify, I'm not suggesting only thorium.  I'm also not suggesting that it's inherently safer.

Got news for you... I just attended a Trane seminar.  Looks like R134a and R410a are on the chopping block.  Last year for R134a in motor vehicles is model year 2021.  R410a isn't on a final rule yet, but it is on proposed rules.  They want to get rid of all HFC's.

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-08/documents/snap_regulatory_factsheet_july20_2015.pdf
https://www.chemours.com/Refrigerants/en_US/assets/downloads/opteon-refrigerants-us-epa-snap-regulations.pdf


Last word I hear is that HFC's are allegedly thousands of times the greenhouse gas of CO2. Hence why the chopping block. Personally I think it's incredibly stupid to near-ban something without an "as good or better" replacement waiting. HFO-1234yf has some issues.

Single component refrigerant, not blend. Operating characteristics are near identical to R134a. Retrofitting from R134a to HFO-1234yf will not be allowed, dunno why. Restricted to certified shops, because screw you. Slightly flammable, whee. New vehicles will need stronger evaporators and leak sensors, so more expensive. Alleged global warming potential is extremely low (allegedly one hundredth the impact).

Allegedly initial costs were $20 - $40 per lb. Then allegedly supposed to be $45-50 lb. When you add in shop markup, it'd be very very expensive. Now? Current price varies, but I'd seen it consistent at $70 per lb for bulk, $100+ for small 'retail' purchases.
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KD5NRH

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #52 on: September 14, 2016, 01:33:39 PM »
I'm a member, too.

Need to rig up about a half dozen of these under each wing, then make an announcement about having to divert momentarily at the request of the Fed gov, while you flick on the smoke and zig zag over a major city for 10 minutes.

Nick1911

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #53 on: September 14, 2016, 02:18:57 PM »
Last word I hear is that HFC's are allegedly thousands of times the greenhouse gas of CO2. Hence why the chopping block. Personally I think it's incredibly stupid to near-ban something without an "as good or better" replacement waiting. HFO-1234yf has some issues.

Single component refrigerant, not blend. Operating characteristics are near identical to R134a. Retrofitting from R134a to HFO-1234yf will not be allowed, dunno why. Restricted to certified shops, because screw you. Slightly flammable, whee. New vehicles will need stronger evaporators and leak sensors, so more expensive. Alleged global warming potential is extremely low (allegedly one hundredth the impact).

Allegedly initial costs were $20 - $40 per lb. Then allegedly supposed to be $45-50 lb. When you add in shop markup, it'd be very very expensive. Now? Current price varies, but I'd seen it consistent at $70 per lb for bulk, $100+ for small 'retail' purchases.

The one I don't really get is why R123 is being phased out?  It has very good environmental properties, despite being an HCFC.

/shrug/  Ultimately, as a tech, it just means more refrigerants I have to stock, along with more recovery cylinders.  If some of the proposed replacements that have A2L safety ratings get adopted, might mean some different handling procedures.

birdman

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #54 on: September 14, 2016, 02:37:02 PM »
Isn't plutonium needed to initiate the thorium-uranium cycle?
It was my understanding that plutonium breeder reactors would still be needed to produce the plutonium needed for thorium reactor startup.


Plutonium or uranium...either works for a starter.  But, yes.  Thankfully, "plutonium breeder" = any LWR at least to the extent needed.  Hell, most LWR's are close to unity gain already, to bad we don't reprocess.

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MechAg94

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #55 on: September 14, 2016, 06:01:21 PM »
So will R123 be phased out for thorium.  Can I just get a breeder air conditioner?  

I need to replace my home A/C system at home in a few months.  3.5 ton I think.  
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charby

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #57 on: September 14, 2016, 11:31:27 PM »
The one I don't really get is why R123 is being phased out?  It has very good environmental properties, despite being an HCFC.

/shrug/  Ultimately, as a tech, it just means more refrigerants I have to stock, along with more recovery cylinders.  If some of the proposed replacements that have A2L safety ratings get adopted, might mean some different handling procedures.

Patent run out?
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freakazoid

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #58 on: September 15, 2016, 05:15:12 AM »
http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/09/14/493925781/epic-climate-cartoon-goes-viral-but-it-has-one-key-problem?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20160914

NPR points out some of the problems with the cartoon and the models thereto.

It starts off so good and remains that way, until the last few paragraphs. It's like well we know that this model doesn't actually represent what is going on truthfully, but it's still totally real guys.
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Fly320s

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #59 on: September 15, 2016, 06:09:52 AM »
I thought XKCD was mocking the globular wormers.  Is that not the case?
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Jocassee

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #60 on: September 15, 2016, 08:16:40 AM »
I thought XKCD was mocking the globular wormers.  Is that not the case?

Nope. XKCD is part of the "I Love Science Sexually!" crowd.
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MechAg94

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #61 on: September 15, 2016, 09:25:02 AM »
Nope. XKCD is part of the "I Love Science Sexually!" crowd.
=D  I guess that is a good way to put it.  There does seem to be a set of people who seem to love science as some sort of fad, and seem to have zero understanding of scientific principles.  

I couldn't tell you what XKCD is trying to show.  If it was a joke, it is a bit too subtle.  Kind of like how The Onion isn't unique anymore as actual news seems to often be more unbelievable.  The global wormer politicians and fanboys say some pretty crazy stuff.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2016, 11:08:39 AM by MechAg94 »
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KD5NRH

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #62 on: September 15, 2016, 11:07:57 AM »
I'm still wondering where all those other temperatures happen to make the difference between "normal" and "ice age" only a couple of degrees.  If Texas (~69F average) is covered in ice (32F maximum) but the average global temperature is only down 5F, then either somewhere had to get a lot hotter than normal or a lot of somewheres had to warm up a bit.

MechAg94

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #63 on: September 15, 2016, 11:09:50 AM »
I'm still wondering where all those other temperatures happen to make the difference between "normal" and "ice age" only a couple of degrees.  If Texas (~69F average) is covered in ice (32F maximum) but the average global temperature is only down 5F, then either somewhere had to get a lot hotter than normal or a lot of somewheres had to warm up a bit.
That is when you get into How They Calculate a Global Average which is an adventure unto itself. 
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230RN

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #64 on: September 15, 2016, 11:11:45 AM »
I wasn't sure if it was sarcasm/mockery or not.  Glad I'm not the only one.

On the one hand it looked outrageously ridiculous.

On the other hand it looked like something a rabid single-minded do-gooder might come up with in all "honesty" to shove his Opinions down your throat.

Interesting historical time-line though.

Amused at the remark about the Onion becoming obsolete because of the nature of current events.

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KD5NRH

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #65 on: September 15, 2016, 11:36:03 AM »
That is when you get into How They Calculate a Global Average which is an adventure unto itself.

Does this involve algebra that runs out of Latin and Greek letters and has to start using Kanji, hieroglyphs and the blood of virgins?

Firethorn

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #66 on: September 15, 2016, 03:08:42 PM »
http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/09/14/493925781/epic-climate-cartoon-goes-viral-but-it-has-one-key-problem?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20160914

NPR points out some of the problems with the cartoon and the models thereto.

What gets me is that they're complaining about inaccuracy when Munroe built a notation about said inaccuracy into his graphic...  look on the right side between 16000 bce and 15500 bce.  He has a notation labled "limits of this data"

I'm still wondering where all those other temperatures happen to make the difference between "normal" and "ice age" only a couple of degrees.  If Texas (~69F average) is covered in ice (32F maximum) but the average global temperature is only down 5F, then either somewhere had to get a lot hotter than normal or a lot of somewheres had to warm up a bit.

Texas was never covered in Ice.  Per the graphic, New York and Boston was covered in ice.  All that's required to get massive depths of ice is to have temperatures cold enough that not all of the ice deposited in the winter melts in the summer before it cools again.  Same deal with "permafrost" up in Alaska.  The winter freezes the dirt deeper than the summer thaws it, so you have a more or less permanently frozen layer of earth within a certain range.  Change the average temperature even 1C warmer, and that layer may disappear, as the winter doesn't freeze as deep, and summer thaws deeper. 

Even small amounts of change can affect massive areas, as a larger freezing 'ice accumulation area' can get large enough to PUSH glaciers down into zones where they couldn't form, but thaw the accumulated kilometers of ice relatively very slowly, so they reach even further south before they finally completely melt.

Does this involve algebra that runs out of Latin and Greek letters and has to start using Kanji, hieroglyphs and the blood of virgins?

Pretty much.

I thought XKCD was mocking the globular wormers.  Is that not the case?

You're not helping your cause here...  The rapidly melting glaciers up here indicates that something has changed.  The data is that global warming is happening.

cordex

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #67 on: September 15, 2016, 03:37:11 PM »
The rapidly melting glaciers up here indicates that something has changed.  The data is that global warming is happening.
First off, I agree that our best measurements (which are far from perfect, even using the modern measuring techniques available today) indicate that there is a warming trend at least over the very small window for which we have somewhat valid measurements. 

That said, local ice reduction is not indicative of global warming any more than the ice expansion in Antarctica is a sign of global cooling.

Sideways_8

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #68 on: September 15, 2016, 09:01:49 PM »
I seem to remember reading a few years back that Katrina was just the first of what's to come hurricane wise due to global warming. Climatologists said so. Hurricane experts disagreed and were lambasted because of the lack of knowledge of climatology. Looking back, eh someone was wrong.

AJ Dual

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #69 on: September 15, 2016, 09:37:45 PM »
First off, I agree that our best measurements (which are far from perfect, even using the modern measuring techniques available today) indicate that there is a warming trend at least over the very small window for which we have somewhat valid measurements. 

That said, local ice reduction is not indicative of global warming any more than the ice expansion in Antarctica is a sign of global cooling.

Inevitably, wherever satellite data shows growing ice or the North Polar Sea ice coverage is better, it's "the wrong kind of ice".
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Sideways_8

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #70 on: September 16, 2016, 02:26:16 AM »
Inevitably, wherever satellite data shows growing ice or the North Polar Sea ice coverage is better, it's "the wrong kind of ice".

Is it deplorable ice?

Hawkmoon

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #71 on: September 16, 2016, 09:30:32 AM »
Is it deplorable ice?

No, it's just the wrong kind of ice.

As in, ice that's growing instead of being "good ice" and melting, as projected by the [all hail the mighty] computer model.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #72 on: September 16, 2016, 09:41:36 AM »
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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #73 on: September 16, 2016, 09:54:19 AM »
It's that tricky black ice.

Black ice matters.

De Selby

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Re: XKCD takes on global warming
« Reply #74 on: September 16, 2016, 09:28:47 PM »
Inevitably, wherever satellite data shows growing ice or the North Polar Sea ice coverage is better, it's "the wrong kind of ice".

Link to any of this data showing polar ice growth?

One of the most hilarious things is the argument that it's too expensive to address even if it is an issue.

Let's see:  consumer goods might go up today, therefore we need "practical" solutions to the problem of maybe not being able to grow wheat in a 100 years???  

What the hell is more practical than making some sacrifices now to avoid long term catastrophe?
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