Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: Ben on March 21, 2017, 02:10:14 PM
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What do you guys think? Not a lot of info in the story, but if you go by "autopilot" and no signs of anyone at the crash site, it sure sounds like maybe the kid put the plane on autopilot and jumped without a chute (or maybe with one to pull a DB Cooper?).
It would help if there was a photo to show whether it was a "possibility of walking away" crash or not.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/03/21/plane-crash-mystery-michigan-student-vanishes-without-trace.html
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Either suicide of faked death. If suicide, he should have crashed the plane with him in it. This sounds more like a faked death or some other poorly devised stunt.
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Either suicide of faked death. If suicide, he should have crashed the plane with him in it.
Not arguing, but I'm curious as to your reasoning?
I haven't ever spent time contemplating on how to kill myself, but I could see someone wanting to do it "cleanly" by jumping out vs auguring in. Not that they wouldn't be killed instantly with the latter, but people don't always think about that, and maybe he was afraid of burning to death or something? I know burning is not a way I would want to go. At least if you jump out, you know that once you hit the ground, "splat" that's it.
Though I think I'm leaning towards some kind of scheme.
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http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/03/21/plane-crash-mystery-michigan-student-vanishes-without-trace.html
Wonder if the kid took a chute with him and jumped out somewhere to disappear.
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Double posted, please merge or delete.
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My thoughts are he wanted to disappear.
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Not arguing, but I'm curious as to your reasoning?
I haven't ever spent time contemplating on how to kill myself, but I could see someone wanting to do it "cleanly" by jumping out vs auguring in. Not that they wouldn't be killed instantly with the latter, but people don't always think about that, and maybe he was afraid of burning to death or something? I know burning is not a way I would want to go. At least if you jump out, you know that once you hit the ground, "splat" that's it.
Though I think I'm leaning towards some kind of scheme.
He made it too complicated for a suicide. I can see making things complicated and/or looking like an accident so he doesn't lose his life insurance, but for a plain (plane. Heh) suicide it looks like too much work. And if he wanted make the crash look like an accident, his body would have to be with the plane.
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Dupes merged.
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(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/08/4e/5c/084e5c22a285404026bcd102dcd55b55.jpg)
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http://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/index.ssf/2017/03/missing_um_student_rented_plan.html
(Shows map... sort of.)
Over water? My bet's suicide. Will a note be discovered and kept under wraps for insurance purposes?
Would like to know what the people at the point of origin saw as he boarded: packs, suitcase, parachute, dinghy, flight plan?
Would like to know what his friends' observations were beforehand.
Would like to know what his academic situation was beforehand.
Would like to know about insurance policies and general finances beforehand.
Would like to know about any evidence of drug use beforehand.
Right now, P=0.7 suicide, P=0.1 insurance fraud, P=0.1 escape from a robbery, otherwise not solvable in any reasonable time frame.
Terry
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Well, I suppose one way to narrow things down is to find out from family or friends if he ever took skydiving lessons.
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Could be the rapture has started and the Power That Be is working from top to bottom?
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I vote Langoliers.
Brad
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I vote Langoliers.
Brad
Michigan not Maine
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Right now, P=0.7 suicide, P=0.1 insurance fraud, P=0.1 escape from a robbery, otherwise not solvable in any reasonable time frame.
With an analysis like that, I'm thinking this whole thing is Terry's coverup for that full set of black market organs he just sold.
How long between crash and first search? Bent the rented plane, panicked and hoofed it somewhere, and it snowed since?
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Swamp gas.
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How long between crash and first search? Bent the rented plane, panicked and hoofed it somewhere, and it snowed since?
Was he reported missing? I bet he is an adult, so cops don't really care.
I bet the search was cursory, if it happened at all. The plane crashed in Canada, eh, so that investigation belongs to them. The Michigan local or state police won't spend much time looking into the crash. They won't look into the disappearance of an adult either if they don't suspect "foul play."
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Well, I suppose one way to narrow things down is to find out from family or friends if he ever took skydiving lessons.
Does one really need them? I know of a few people who left their planes and the only training they had was on the ground and in the pool. ;)
bob
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Swamp gas.
Reflecting the light from Venus.
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Does one really need them? I know of a few people who left their planes and the only training they had was on the ground and in the pool. ;)
bob
A skill that is possible to learn OJT, as it were....
I'd like to know more about motives to be "running from something" that might lead to either faking ones death, or taking that first big step without a net...
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,,,
I'd like to know more about motives to be "running from something" that might lead to either faking ones death, or taking that first big step without a net...
Yup:
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Over water? My bet's suicide. Will a note be discovered and kept under wraps for insurance purposes?
Would like to know what the people at the point of origin saw as he boarded: packs, suitcase, parachute, dinghy, flight plan?
Would like to know what his friends' observations were beforehand.
Would like to know what his academic situation was beforehand.
Would like to know about insurance policies and general finances beforehand.
Would like to know about any evidence of drug use beforehand.
...
Terry
Terry, 230RN
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If the plane somehow got to a "still flying and controllable, but not for much longer" state and there was nowhere to land, I could see the attraction of turning into the wind, flaps full, and jumping out as low and slow as possible, aiming for what appears to be the deepest snowbank around. Not sure how long a 172 could continue on once the pilot left, though.
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If the plane somehow got to a "still flying and controllable, but not for much longer" state and there was nowhere to land, I could see the attraction of turning into the wind, flaps full, and jumping out as low and slow as possible, aiming for what appears to be the deepest snowbank around. Not sure how long a 172 could continue on once the pilot left, though.
They are stable, so if it was trimmed for straight and level it would fly until it ran out of gas. Just like in this story.
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Out-of-the-blue thought - maybe a dumba** attempting an "ultimate selfie"? Sets the autopilot, leans out the door onto the strut step for said selfie, and achieves Epic Life Fail.
Brad
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They are stable, so if it was trimmed for straight and level it would fly until it ran out of gas. Just like in this story.
I guess in the end, that comes down to how much of an autopilot it had; if it was just a wing leveler, and had to deal with a sudden loss of ~200lbs at stall speed and <50ft AGL, would it damp the oscillation quickly enough?
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Does a 172 even have an autopilot? Especially since this was a rental. I could see how otherwise once it was properly trimmed, it could just keep puttering along in still air.
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I guess in the end, that comes down to how much of an autopilot it had; if it was just a wing leveler, and had to deal with a sudden loss of ~200lbs at stall speed and <50ft AGL, would it damp the oscillation quickly enough?
Does a 172 even have an autopilot? Especially since this was a rental. I could see how otherwise once it was properly trimmed, it could just keep puttering along in still air.
This plane had an autopilot, but they are aren't standard equipment. It was probably just a wing leveler as those are more common, but it could have had altitude hold.
I bet the plane would stay stable if the sole occupant jumped out.
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This plane had an autopilot, but they are aren't standard equipment. It was probably just a wing leveler as those are more common, but it could have had altitude hold.
I bet the plane would stay stable if the sole occupant jumped out.
2400lb plane losing 5-8% of weight that was off center? I'd expect both a sudden climb and likely some roll before it accounted for the change in CG. Just not sure how quickly the wing leveler would react to that. (i.e. quickly enough to avoid second and subsequent oscillations, and/or quickly enough to avoid further altitude loss from the roll) If he was already at the edge of a stall and low enough to feel like he could survive a jump, that doesn't leave much margin.
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Off center? Yeah, by the width of a seat cushion. The AP could handle that drastic change.
Yes, less weight could induce a climb if the AP was only single-axis. Or a stall from the sudden pitch up. Or the pilot could have planned for that so the plane crashed far away.
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If the plane somehow got to a "still flying and controllable, but not for much longer" state and there was nowhere to land, I could see the attraction of turning into the wind, flaps full, and jumping out as low and slow as possible, aiming for what appears to be the deepest snowbank around. Not sure how long a 172 could continue on once the pilot left, though.
Or you know you would just put it down in the best area you could find and use the structure of the aircraft to absorb the energy of the crash
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Or you know you would just put it down in the best area you could find and use the structure of the aircraft to absorb the energy of the crash
That is so boring. And safe. Who wants that?
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Or you know you would just put it down in the best area you could find and use the structure of the aircraft to absorb the energy of the crash
Inexperienced pilot, not much practice picking emergency landing spots, but several touch-and-go and or not-quite touch landings would likely give him some confidence in skimming along under 10-20' AGL at stall speed. Given a choice between a 15' fall at 50mph and being inside 2500 pounds of 1955-design (Crumple zones? Airbags? Maybe we'll invent those in a few more decades.) cheap airplane hitting an immovable object at the same speed, it's far from unthinkable that he'd choose the former.
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Inexperienced pilot, not much practice picking emergency landing spots, but several touch-and-go and or not-quite touch landings would likely give him some confidence in skimming along under 10-20' AGL at stall speed. Given a choice between a 15' fall at 50mph and being inside 2500 pounds of 1955-design (Crumple zones? Airbags? Maybe we'll invent those in a few more decades.) cheap airplane hitting an immovable object at the same speed, it's far from unthinkable that he'd choose the former.
Your logic is infallible. There is no reason for us experienced pilots to atrempt to refute your theories.
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Out-of-the-blue thought - maybe a dumba** attempting an "ultimate selfie"? Sets the autopilot, leans out the door onto the strut step for said selfie, and achieves Epic Life Fail.
Brad
Not a bad hypothesis, actually. Lots of dumbasses taking fatal selfies these days.