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Author Topic: Think This Was a Suicide?  (Read 3553 times)

Ben

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Think This Was a Suicide?
« on: March 21, 2017, 02:10:14 PM »
What do you guys think? Not a lot of info in the story, but if you go by "autopilot" and no signs of anyone at the crash site, it sure sounds like maybe the kid put the plane on autopilot and jumped without a chute (or maybe with one to pull a DB Cooper?).

It would help if there was a photo to show whether it was a "possibility of walking away" crash or not.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/03/21/plane-crash-mystery-michigan-student-vanishes-without-trace.html
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Fly320s

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2017, 02:13:04 PM »
Either suicide of faked death.  If suicide, he should have crashed the plane with him in it.  This sounds more like a faked death or some other poorly devised stunt.
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Ben

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2017, 02:19:26 PM »
Quote from: Fly320s on March 21, 2017, 02:13:04 PM
Either suicide of faked death.  If suicide, he should have crashed the plane with him in it. 

Not arguing, but I'm curious as to your reasoning?

I haven't ever spent time contemplating on how to kill myself, but I could see someone wanting to do it "cleanly" by jumping out vs auguring in. Not that they wouldn't be killed instantly with the latter, but people don't always think about that, and maybe he was afraid of burning to death or something? I know burning is not a way I would want to go. At least if you jump out, you know that once you hit the ground, "splat" that's it.

Though I think I'm leaning towards some kind of scheme.
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wmenorr67

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Missing Pilot
« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2017, 02:34:53 PM »
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/03/21/plane-crash-mystery-michigan-student-vanishes-without-trace.html

Wonder if the kid took a chute with him and jumped out somewhere to disappear.
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Re: Missing Pilot
« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2017, 02:36:15 PM »
Double posted, please merge or delete.
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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2017, 02:36:39 PM »
My thoughts are he wanted to disappear.
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There are five things, above all else, that make life worth living: a good relationship with God, a good woman, good health, good friends, and a good cigar.

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Fly320s

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2017, 02:57:09 PM »
Quote from: Ben on March 21, 2017, 02:19:26 PM
Not arguing, but I'm curious as to your reasoning?

I haven't ever spent time contemplating on how to kill myself, but I could see someone wanting to do it "cleanly" by jumping out vs auguring in. Not that they wouldn't be killed instantly with the latter, but people don't always think about that, and maybe he was afraid of burning to death or something? I know burning is not a way I would want to go. At least if you jump out, you know that once you hit the ground, "splat" that's it.

Though I think I'm leaning towards some kind of scheme.

He made it too complicated for a suicide.  I can see making things complicated and/or looking like an accident so he doesn't lose his life insurance, but for a plain (plane. Heh) suicide it looks like too much work.  And if he wanted make the crash look like an accident, his body would have to be with the plane.

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Ben

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2017, 03:10:32 PM »
Dupes merged.
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Hawkmoon

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2017, 03:16:29 PM »
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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2017, 08:47:39 PM »
http://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/index.ssf/2017/03/missing_um_student_rented_plan.html
(Shows map... sort of.)

Over water?  My bet's suicide.  Will a note be discovered and kept under wraps for insurance purposes?

Would like to know what the people at the point of origin saw as he boarded: packs, suitcase, parachute, dinghy, flight plan?

Would like to know what his friends' observations were beforehand.

Would like to know what his academic situation was beforehand.

Would like to know about insurance policies and general finances beforehand.

Would like to know about any evidence of drug use beforehand.

Right now, P=0.7 suicide, P=0.1 insurance fraud, P=0.1 escape from a robbery, otherwise not solvable in any reasonable time frame.

Terry
« Last Edit: March 21, 2017, 09:14:19 PM by 230RN »
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Ben

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2017, 08:53:28 PM »
Well, I suppose one way to narrow things down is to find out from family or friends if he ever took skydiving lessons.
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griz

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2017, 12:53:15 PM »
Could be the rapture has started and the Power That Be is working from top to bottom?
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Brad Johnson

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #12 on: March 22, 2017, 04:06:50 PM »
I vote Langoliers.

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wmenorr67

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #13 on: March 22, 2017, 04:29:02 PM »
Quote from: Brad Johnson on March 22, 2017, 04:06:50 PM
I vote Langoliers.

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #14 on: March 22, 2017, 04:49:08 PM »
Quote from: 230RN on March 21, 2017, 08:47:39 PM
Right now, P=0.7 suicide, P=0.1 insurance fraud, P=0.1 escape from a robbery, otherwise not solvable in any reasonable time frame.

With an analysis like that, I'm thinking this whole thing is Terry's coverup for that full set of black market organs he just sold.

How long between crash and first search?  Bent the rented plane, panicked and hoofed it somewhere, and it snowed since?
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #15 on: March 22, 2017, 06:40:14 PM »
Swamp gas.
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Fly320s

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #16 on: March 22, 2017, 08:00:29 PM »
Quote from: KD5NRH on March 22, 2017, 04:49:08 PM
How long between crash and first search?  Bent the rented plane, panicked and hoofed it somewhere, and it snowed since?

Was he reported missing?  I bet he is an adult, so cops don't really care.

I bet the search was cursory, if it happened at all.  The plane crashed in Canada, eh, so that investigation belongs to them.  The Michigan local or state police won't spend much time looking into the crash.  They won't look into the disappearance of an adult either if they don't suspect "foul play."

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2017, 08:05:06 PM »
Quote from: Ben on March 21, 2017, 08:53:28 PM
Well, I suppose one way to narrow things down is to find out from family or friends if he ever took skydiving lessons.

Does one really need them? I know of a few people who left their planes and the only training they had was on the ground and in the pool.  ;)


bob
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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2017, 10:09:05 PM »
Quote from: fistful on March 22, 2017, 06:40:14 PM
Swamp gas.

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Scout26

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #19 on: March 22, 2017, 10:33:55 PM »
Quote from: BobR on March 22, 2017, 08:05:06 PM
Does one really need them? I know of a few people who left their planes and the only training they had was on the ground and in the pool.  ;)


bob

A skill that is possible to learn OJT, as it were....


I'd like to know more about motives to be "running from something" that might lead to either faking ones death, or taking that first big step without a net...
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230RN

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2017, 04:00:31 AM »
Quote from: scout26 on March 22, 2017, 10:33:55 PM

,,,

I'd like to know more about motives to be "running from something" that might lead to either faking ones death, or taking that first big step without a net...

Yup:

Quote from: 230RN on March 21, 2017, 08:47:39 PM
...
Over water?  My bet's suicide.  Will a note be discovered and kept under wraps for insurance purposes?

Would like to know what the people at the point of origin saw as he boarded: packs, suitcase, parachute, dinghy, flight plan?

Would like to know what his friends' observations were beforehand.

Would like to know what his academic situation was beforehand.

Would like to know about insurance policies and general finances beforehand.

Would like to know about any evidence of drug use beforehand.
...
Terry

Terry, 230RN
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WHATEVER YOUR DEFINITION OF "INFRINGE " IS, YOU SHOULDN'T BE DOING IT.

KD5NRH

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #21 on: March 23, 2017, 09:50:54 AM »
If the plane somehow got to a "still flying and controllable, but not for much longer" state and there was nowhere to land, I could see the attraction of turning into the wind, flaps full, and jumping out as low and slow as possible, aiming for what appears to be the deepest snowbank around.  Not sure how long a 172 could continue on once the pilot left, though.
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Fly320s

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #22 on: March 23, 2017, 09:57:31 AM »
Quote from: KD5NRH on March 23, 2017, 09:50:54 AM
If the plane somehow got to a "still flying and controllable, but not for much longer" state and there was nowhere to land, I could see the attraction of turning into the wind, flaps full, and jumping out as low and slow as possible, aiming for what appears to be the deepest snowbank around.  Not sure how long a 172 could continue on once the pilot left, though.

They are stable, so if it was trimmed for straight and level it would fly until it ran out of gas.  Just like in this story.
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Brad Johnson

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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #23 on: March 23, 2017, 10:18:10 AM »
Out-of-the-blue thought - maybe a dumba** attempting an "ultimate selfie"? Sets the autopilot, leans out the door onto the strut step for said selfie, and achieves Epic Life Fail.

Brad
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Re: Think This Was a Suicide?
« Reply #24 on: March 23, 2017, 11:04:35 AM »
Quote from: Fly320s on March 23, 2017, 09:57:31 AM
They are stable, so if it was trimmed for straight and level it would fly until it ran out of gas.  Just like in this story.

I guess in the end, that comes down to how much of an autopilot it had; if it was just a wing leveler, and had to deal with a sudden loss of ~200lbs at stall speed and <50ft AGL, would it damp the oscillation quickly enough?
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