Third try the charm for Governor Romney?

[charby]

I eagerly await the hordes of Republican sycophants assuring us how "severely conservative" Romney is. 

You should be asking how conservative are the majority of GOP voters.

[roo_ster]

You should be asking how conservative are the majority of GOP voters.

Given that many did not bother to turn out for Romney in 2012, probably more conservative than Romney.

[Waitone]

Democrats = Globetrotters
Republicans = Washington Generals

[charby]

Given that many did not bother to turn out for Romney in 2012, probably more conservative than Romney.

I'm trying to find a legitimate chart or new article that spells that out.

[Jocassee]

I'm trying to find a legitimate chart or new article that spells that out.

Let me know what you find. Include Project Orca in your searches. The GOP had a massive project management failure on it GOTV management software.

[charby]

Let me know what you find. Include Project Orca in your searches. The GOP had a massive project management failure on it GOTV management software.

Hence the credible source. I was on the reporting side of that fiasco.

[RocketMan]

I think you VASTLY overestimate her popularity.

Liz Warren...

Liz Warren of Fauxcahontas fame?  That Liz Warren?  The Clinton camp will beat Warren bloody over that stuff and the PC wing of the Democrat Party will write her off.

[RoadKingLarry]

Liz Warren of Fauxcahontas fame?  That Liz Warren?  The Clinton camp will beat Warren bloody over that stuff and the PC wing of the Democrat Party will write her off.

My wife has been working with some of the up and coming "movers and shakers" in the Cherokee Nation. I've heard several of them say good things about Warren.

[Scout26]

Yes, but the super-liberals love her.  She is "more to the left" of Hillary.  And while Hillary can pull in some big money, the base is not enamoured with her.  ANd if Warren runs, she'll only pull money from Hillary as Warren doesn't have Hillary's baggage.  (Bill, Monica, Obama, and Benghazi among others).

While Hillary thought she was going to be anointed president in 2008, when suddenly the D base flocked to Obama.  For many, it seemed like they were grateful to not have to vote for Hillary.

[Balog]

I'm trying to find a legitimate chart or new article that spells that out.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

[MicroBalrog]

I'll just leave this here.

[makattak]

I'll just leave this here.

 

We're doomed.

[roo_ster]

EARLY ANALYSIS: POST-ELECTION NOVEMBER 2012

The Case of the Missing White Voters

But most importantly, the 2012 elections actually weren’t about a demographic explosion with non-white voters. Instead, they were about a large group of white voters not showing up.

As of this writing, Barack Obama has received a bit more than 60 million votes. Mitt Romney has received 57 million votes. Although the gap between Republicans and Democrats has closed considerably since 2008, Romney is still running about 2.5 million votes behind John McCain; the gap has closed simply because Obama is running about 9 million votes behind his 2008 totals.

Of course, there are an unknown number of ballots outstanding. If we guesstimate the total at 7 million (3 million in California, 1.5 million or so in Oregon and Washington, and another 2.5 million or so spread throughout the country), that would bring the total number of votes cast in 2012 to about 125 million: 5 million votes shy of the number cast four years ago.

With this base line, and armed with the exit-poll data, we can get a pretty good estimate of how many whites, blacks, and Latinos cast ballots in both 2008 and 2012. Assuming the 72/13/10/5 percentage split described above for 2012, that would equate to about 91.6 million votes cast by whites, 16.6 million by blacks, 12.7 million by Latinos, with the balance of 6.3 million votes spread among other groups.

Compare this with 2008, when the numbers were 98.6 million whites, 16.3 million blacks, 11 million Latinos, and 5.9 million from other groups.

In other words, if our underlying assumption -- that there are 7 million votes outstanding -- is correct, then the African-American vote only increased by about 300,000 votes, or 0.2 percent, from 2008 to 2012. The Latino vote increased by a healthier 1.7 million votes, while the “other” category increased by about 470,000 votes.

This is nothing to sneeze at, but in terms of the effect on the electorate, it is dwarfed by the decline in the number of whites. Again, if our assumption about the total number of votes cast is correct, almost 7 million fewer whites voted in 2012 than in 2008. This isn’t readily explainable by demographic shifts either; although whites are declining as a share of the voting-age population, their raw numbers are not.

Damage Control Operative At New Republic Concedes White Turnout Fell

Sean Trende’s low white turnout assertion wrecks the Left’s Minority Triumphalism and so it is to be expected that their apparatchiks are deploying to contest it, as Steve Sailer has noted.

But the article Steve links to There Aren`t As Many Missing Voters As It Seems Nate Cohn The New Republic November 8, 2012 concludes with a devastating concession:

   Given the initial exit poll data and the current national popular vote tally, it looks like white turnout might have declined slightly since 2008. I`m holding off judging just how much until the final exit polls and results are reported…

John McCain lost in 2008 because of low white turnout. Romney and Karl Rove failed to reverse that.

Romney lost the presidency. Karl Rove got rich.

LATER ANALYSIS: JUNE 2013

Who did turn out for BHO in exceptional numbers?  Black old ladies.  IOW, BHO won by getting his base riled up to vote.  and Romney lost by alienating his base.

Census Bureau Refutes “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” Mantra—Obama Won Because Of Old Black Ladies (And Turned-Off Whites)

But who did turn out in 2012 to drive Obama to victory? Who was the fresh new face of the American electorate in 2012?

Old black ladies.

According to the Census survey, fans of Tyler Perry movies voted in remarkable numbers in 2012—even more than in Obama’s first victory in 2008.

Unsurprisingly, given Obama’s candidacy, from 2004 to 2008 the number of black voters had grown 15 percent.

Unexpectedly, however, blacks added another 10 percent to their vote total from 2008 to 2012. Nationally, 66.2 percent of eligible blacks voted compared to 64.1 percent of whites, 48.0 percent of Hispanics, and 47.3 percent of Asians.

Nationally, 66.2 percent of eligible blacks voted compared to 64.1 percent of whites, 48.0 percent of Hispanics, and 47.3 percen

Thus in the crucial battleground state of Ohio, blacks achieved a voting rate of 71.7 percent compared to 61.9 percent for whites.

Overall, the raw black vote total grew more than even the Hispanic vote from 2008 to 2012: an incremental 1.68 million for blacks versus 1.44 million for Hispanics, and a decline of 2.00 million for whites.

Among blacks, older women were the most diligent at increasing their turnout in 2012.

The Census Bureau explains:

   In 2012, overall turnout rates decreased in comparison with both 2004 and 2008, a drop in voting characterized by large decreases in youth voting rates for all race groups and Hispanics. The only subgroups showing voting rate increases in 2012 were blacks between the ages of 45 to 64 and 65 years of age and over.

This growth in black turnout was particularly concentrated among those over age 65. Also, black women traditionally vote at significantly higher rates than black men, and the black gender gap in turnout hit a new record in 2012.[For First Time on Record, Black Voting Rate Outpaced Rate for Whites in 2012,By Sarah Wheaton, New York Times, May 8, 2013]

So why did so many old black ladies bother to vote in 2012?

To express racial solidarity. To win. To ensure the White House stays black.

Old black ladies are American citizens. They are more than entitled to show up at the polls and vote for a credit to their race like Barack Obama.

But they are not exactly The Wave of the Future. The vast enthusiasm that Obama excited among aged African-Americans is not a logical reason to put Hispanic illegal aliens on the voting rolls.

But that is in fact the standard logic.

...

In contrast to the fervent black effort to re-elect Obama, whites were strikingly unmotivated by Romney. The total white vote dropped from 100 million in 2008 to 98 million in 2012 (down two percent). Only 64.1 percent of eligible whites voted in 2012, down from 66.1 percent in 2008 and 67.2 percent in the recent high-water mark year of 2004. This was the first time in the history of the Census survey that whites were not the highest-ranking group in terms of their rate of voting.

The vdare.org articles are extensively sourced and provide an imperial buttload of links to those sources.


Let me repeat:
 BHO won by getting his base riled up to vote.  And Romney lost by alienating his base.

Reaching out to the "middle" is a loser of a plan, as McCain and Romney and GHWB's second non-administrations attest.

[grampster]

The "Big Tent" the Stupid Party likes to talk about is so big that it seems empty.

[Scout26]

Don't forget Dole.

GHWB did two things wrong: Violated his "read my lips" pledge, and failed to continue, build on what Reagan had started.

[brimic]

Scott Walker will likely be entering the race.
While he isn't across the board the perfect conservative, he's far better than anyone else throwing their hat in the ring so far.
What he does have going for him is that he's kind of an 'everyman' candidate- he's firmly middle class, doesn't have the persona of a bankster, a used car salesman, or effeminate dictator fellator. In a state that is split 50/50 between conservative and liberal- almost down to last individual with very little space in the middle, he's won two statewide elections as well as a recall election so far.

[HankB]

GOP "leaders" (and I use the term loosely) will alienate their base by moving to the left in order to woo more liberal voters.

Thing is, while they MAY get a figurative pat on the head, the lefties they're wooing WILL NOT VOTE GOP UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE.

And if they become "Democrat LITE" . . . why should the base vote for them?

I don't feel good about the 2016 election for POTUS . . . 

[roo_ster]

GOP "leaders" (and I use the term loosely) will alienate their base by moving to the left in order to woo more liberal voters.

Thing is, while they MAY get a figurative pat on the head, the lefties they're wooing WILL NOT VOTE GOP UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE.

And if they become "Democrat LITE" . . . why should the base vote for them?

I don't feel good about the 2016 election for POTUS . . . 

And it will cost them 10x $$$ per "moderate" voter relative to a "base" voter to the right to motivate them to go to the polls. 

The middle of the road is where campaigns go to get splattered by oncoming traffic.

[Jocassee]

As far as things stand now, I'm in for Walker. I like Rand, even though he's mushy on immigration. I'm sure warts will appear on Walker with time, but I'm going to try and be happy for a little while.

[Scout26]

Ted Cruz

[Jocassee]

Ted Cruz

I don't have a single problem with Ted Cruz but I'm afraid he is an unelectable lightning rod for controversy.

EDIT: plus I don't think he's making any noises about running. Same with Gowdy, though I don't think he has any business running for president anyway.

[brimic]

As far as things stand now, I'm in for Walker. I like Rand, even though he's mushy on immigration. I'm sure warts will appear on Walker with time, but I'm going to try and be happy for a little while.

My only complaints about Walker are:
- He wasn't gung -ho enough on Concealed carry. We could have had constitutional carry, but he settled for 'shall-issue', though a really good 'shall-issue' at that.
- He won't commit to 'right to work.' He did a fine job of taking down the public sector union cabal, but won't touch closed shop unions, at least not yet, though there is building pressure for him to do so.

Minor nit-picky complaints, no deal killers for me.

[Ron]

A serious 2016 presidential run may not even be a possibility for the Republicans after two years of controlling the legislature.

I just heard that the Republicans are open to raising the gasoline tax. Seriously? How disconnected from reality are these clowns?

The only organic (ie not government caused) good economic thing that has happened under Obama is the crashing price of oil/gasoline. It has been an across the board raise for everyone helping the lowest economic class the most. So they are going to fubar the one silver lining in the economy? Nutz  

[Jocassee]

A serious 2016 presidential run may not even be a possibility for the Republicans after two years of controlling the legislature.

This is, sadly, a very good point.

[brimic]

The only organic (ie not government caused) good economic thing that has happened under Obama is the crashing price of oil/gasoline. It has been an across the board raise for everyone helping the lowest economic class the most.

But, but, but the poor all ride buses and choo-choos so we must put a bigger tax on gasoline to pay for these.