Second presidential debate live blog and discussion

[Hawkmoon]

Poll summary:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#!

[Perd Hapley]

Also, not The Onion:

http://twitchy.com/dougp-3137/2016/10/09/good-lapdoggie-youve-got-to-see-nbc-news-fact-check-of-trump-on-hillarys-email-to-believe-it/

On a tangent, I'm tired of Clinton using "fact check". She must say it 100 times a day, and always tells you to go to her website to see the "fact checks". Because she would never lie to you. 

I really like how the fact check is just providing the correct details on how Trump's opponent feloniously spilled classified intel. 

[mellestad]

This is an interesting analysis of 2012 polling accuracy by the 538 guy. He analyzes the last three weeks of poll results compared to the actual results.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/

The takeaway is that the vast majority of polls were accurate within 3% and almost all were accurate within 5%.

Also interesting is that the errors tilted towards Romney almost exclusively--in other words the polling bias was the opposite of what is being suspected in this thread for Trump.

This is hard data. I'm very interested to see how this election compares. Next week we'll hit the "3 week" window this analysis used for data in 2012.

The most accurate poll, by TIPP/IBD hasn't been run since early September, when Trump had his big surge. That showed things as tied, 40 days ago. I'll bookmark the page and see when they do another one!: http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-in-latest-ibdtipp-poll/

As a note though, the normal Reuters poll was very accurate in 2012, and you can get their current polling any time here: http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/week/dates/20160901-20161007/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

[MechAg94]

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.  IMO, the is election is completely different from 2012 or 2008.  A lot of the people Trump has pulled in to support him are the people who sat out the 2012 election.  We will see.