The polls are tightening up.

[Scout26]

Hmm, I wonder if Rush Limbaugh might be right.   That the early polls are "Push" polls to get the democrats fired up.   But now as the race is winding down they all pretty show that Romney is "gaining ground" and some of the blue states are turning pink if not red. 

Methinks this might be 1980 all over again....

[Regolith]

I think a lot of the earlier polls were drastically over-sampling Democrats. It's not that Romney picked up more likely voters, but rather the polls were skewed the wrong way to begin with. I think the pollsters realized their credibility was on the line as people started digging into their methodology and the election got nearer, and finally corrected. After all, if they were still polling +9 or +11 D and showed an easy Obama win and Obama gets stomped, nobody would take them seriously again.

Edit: As for why, I think it was a combination of DNC-run polls trying to make their guy look better and the others (whose employees probably skew Democrat personally but weren't purposely trying to bias their research) basing their assumption on a flawed Democratic turnout model. They thought 2012 is going to be like 2008, and ignored the 2010 midterms and other evidence that the Democratic base simply isn't very enthusiastic.

[TommyGunn]

I think a lot of the earlier polls were drastically over-sampling Democrats. It's not that Romney picked up more likely voters, but rather the polls were skewed the wrong way to begin with. I think the pollsters realized their credibility was on the line as people started digging into their methodology and the election got nearer, and finally corrected. After all, if they were still polling +9 or +11 D and showed an easy Obama win and Obama gets stomped, nobody would take them seriously again.

Yeah; this is exactly what Limbaugh said was happening. 

[Scout26]

That and that they want to to retain their credibility.  They want to be as accurate as possible on 5 Nov.  Otherwise in 2 or 4 years no one (candidate or news service) is going to pay for their polls and/or listen to them.  

"Hey, let's hire those pollsters that totally suck and use them in our campaign/on our news show."

Yeah, no..


I got a feeling this one might be called before the polls close on the west coast.  Like MSNBC saying the WI recall race would be "too close to call" as the polls closed and they were "prepared to be there all night and into the next day" then NBC calls the election for Walker 49 minutes later.  

I predict Romney in a landslide.  Reagan/Carter all over again.  

[French G.]

Well, I hope you're right. And I hope that when the no longer Air Force One delivers your man back to your state that he trips going down the boarding ladder.

[MechAg94]

Considering Obama fund raising has been short of 2008 numbers for months, I don't think it has been justified to assume Dem enthusiasm. 

The way polls ask the questions and pick people to poll, there are near infinite ways to manipulate things.  Why do they even issue polls of the general population or registered voters when polls of likely voters are the only ones that have ever been accurate?  Since the election is the only way to check things, we have only that point to check them.

[Waitone]

Pollsters have business outside of politics.  They can not claim to be accurate at testing detergent preferences when they whiff high profile political contests. 

[lee n. field]

Methinks this might be 1980 all over again....

You mean, 0 and associates come out of hiding in a cloud of cocaine dust and concede, hours before the polls close?

(It was so much fun being on a liberal university campus the day after the '80 election.  The gloom was palpable.  I couldn't stop grinning.)

[kgbsquirrel]

Well, I hope you're right. And I hope that when the no longer Air Force One delivers your man back to your state that he trips going down the boarding ladder.

What is the designation for the flight of the ex-POTUS? Air Force Zero? 

[MechAg94]

Pollsters have business outside of politics.  They can not claim to be accurate at testing detergent preferences when they whiff high profile political contests. 

That is only true if they are the only one who is giving a certain answer.  Also, they only "whiff" the political contests if they are way off on election day.  Who will worry about what they were saying 2 months ahead of election day?  Part of Rush's prediction was that they would quietly shift their results back to reality by election time.

[Jamisjockey]

What is the designation for the flight of the ex-POTUS? Air Force Zero? 

Any air force aircraft transporting the prez would be air force one.  Callsign is only used when the prez is on board.
Transporting the former prez?
Air force Two-niner-zero-zero-zero.
(aircraft tail number), unless they have a preapproved tactical call sign.  (Asshat six-five, for example)

[HankB]

. . . unless they have a preapproved tactical call sign.  (Asshat six-five, for example)

Jihadi One? (Would love to just sit back and watch the media's reaction of they got hold of that one.     )

[Balog]

Polls average around a %9 response rate. They're essentially meaningless, even when not intentionally skewed.