Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: Northwoods on March 03, 2020, 03:03:08 PM
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I work with several guys in India. One was telling me a friend of his was evacuated from Wuhan back to Delhi where he's been held in quarantine. That guy is saying the death toll was at least 100,000 as of when he left.
If true this may mean Covid-19 is much worse that we thought. And that China really is a shithole.
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I work with several guys in India. One was telling me a friend of his was evacuated from Wuhan back to Delhi where he's been held in quarantine. That guy is saying the death toll was at least 100,000 as of when he left.
If true this may mean Covid-19 is much worse that we thought. And that China really is a shithole.
Squares with the rumours of crematories running 24/7, along with mobile crematories being brought in.
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IIRC the timeline correctly, last week we had one confirmed case of Covid-19 here in Sweden. We now have atleast 24. Most seems to have been infected either in Italy or Iran. One in China and one in South Korea too IIRC.
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I work with several guys in India. One was telling me a friend of his was evacuated from Wuhan back to Delhi where he's been held in quarantine. That guy is saying the death toll was at least 100,000 as of when he left.
If true this may mean Covid-19 is much worse that we thought. And that China really is a shithole.
The tinfoil hat side of me wonders if China was using this disease as an excuse to get rid of troublesome people. But that is an accusation without proof so we will see.
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The tinfoil hat side of me wonders if China was using this disease as an excuse to get rid of troublesome people. But that is an accusation without proof so we will see.
My tinfoil hat is wondering, given that it appears WHO has been less than forthcoming (and as I mentioned elsewhere, a WHO bigwig is also a Chinese bigwig), if some joint WHO/China disease research went haywire and they are both covering something up.
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If the virus was that lethal I'd expect to see more deaths in other countries than we actually have.
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If the virus was that lethal I'd expect to see more deaths in other countries than we actually have.
Unless total infections are in the 1-10mil range. Might be getting close to the entire population of Wuhan.
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If the virus was that lethal I'd expect to see more deaths in other countries than we actually have.
I expect that the general health of the population plays a significant role in death rates.
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If the virus was that lethal I'd expect to see more deaths in other countries than we actually have.
Yep. IF the infection rate was high enough to match that 100,000 death to the rates we're seeing in other countries1, I don't think there'd be any way China could stop the spread.
1: At current rates in other countries (for which we have data), there would have to be 5M-10M infected in China. I don't think China could stop something that widespread from spreading all through China and possibly all through Asia.
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I work with several guys in India. One was telling me a friend of his was evacuated from Wuhan back to Delhi where he's been held in quarantine. That guy is saying the death toll was at least 100,000 as of when he left.
If true this may mean Covid-19 is much worse that we thought. And that China really is a shithole.
Even with the possibility of using the disease as an excuse for some purging, I doubt those numbers. But I also doubt China's infection and death number, too. And the WHO can *expletive deleted*ck off I don't trust them either.
At least we're bungling the initial response, and if it's really that bad, we won't know until it's too *expletive deleted*ing late and rampages though the country.
But hey, Almost every super tuesday state has reported cases of kung-flu.
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Even with the possibility of using the disease as an excuse for some purging, I doubt those numbers. But I also doubt China's infection and death number, too. And the WHO can *expletive deleted*ck off I don't trust them either.
At least we're bungling the initial response, and if it's really that bad, we won't know until it's too *expletive deleted*ing late and rampages though the country.
But hey, Almost every super tuesday state has reported cases of kung-flu.
We suspended travel to China earlier than most. If something like this spreads easily, I really doubt they could stop it completely when you consider just how much direct travel there is/was on a daily basis. Unfortunately, it may be one of those things we won't know for sure until it has already happened.
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We suspended travel to China earlier than most. If something like this spreads easily, I really doubt they could stop it completely when you consider just how much direct travel there is/was on a daily basis. Unfortunately, it may be one of those things we won't know for sure until it has already happened.
The testing is what this administration and the CDC dropped the ball on. They just barely started screening flights from Italy YESTERDAY. Insane stupidity. Testing should have been ramped up weeks ago, with screening of flights from any hotzone that wasn't outright banned, including testing.
The genie is out of the bottle on this, but unchecked it could run wild through many of our cities. For most of us, it will be just the flu, or nothing at all.
But for those who get sick, many more will need hospital services that will overwhelmed. And the risk for death with comorbidity factors goes up a lot.
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The true spread of Covid-19 may be a case for: [tinfoil]
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If you believe Chinese numbers their inflection point of when more people are recovered than are infected happened on 2/28 and the past couple of days have only been adding just over 100 new cases of infected per day. If their numbers are accurate, they're well on the way toward controlling this. Ignoring the peak on 2/12 when their detection rules changed and there was a huge spike in counts, they peaked at adding 4,050 new cases on 2/13. Since then their new infection rate has declined precipitously.
In the rest of the world we are still going up fast. New non-Mainland China infections increased by 2410 yesterday which was 39% higher than the number of new cases that were added on 3/2. Yesterday Italy added more than 400 cases while Korea and Iran each added over 800 cases. No one else is even close.
For perspective, we are 53 days into this and there are currently three times as many people known to be infected with Covid-19 vs 53 days into H1N1 (Swine Flu) and 13 times as many people as were infected 53 days into SARS. Covid-19 is responsible for 6 times as many deaths as SARS and almost 22 times as many deaths as H1N1 at equivalent progression.
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If you believe Chinese numbers their inflection point of when more people are recovered than are infected happened on 2/28 and the past couple of days have only been adding just over 100 new cases of infected per day. If their numbers are accurate, they're well on the way toward controlling this. Ignoring the peak on 2/12 when their detection rules changed and there was a huge spike in counts, they peaked at adding 4,050 new cases on 2/13. Since then their new infection rate has declined precipitously.
In the rest of the world we are still going up fast. New non-Mainland China infections increased by 2410 yesterday which was 39% higher than the number of new cases that were added on 3/2. Yesterday Italy added more than 400 cases while Korea and Iran each added over 800 cases. No one else is even close.
For perspective, we are 53 days into this and there are currently three times as many people known to be infected with Covid-19 vs 53 days into H1N1 (Swine Flu) and 13 times as many people as were infected 53 days into SARS. Covid-19 is responsible for 6 times as many deaths as SARS and almost 22 times as many deaths as H1N1 at equivalent progression.
China was extremely proactive..in a draconian way. This is where freedom has it's downsides. It takes serious issues before the US would dare do something like quarantine a whole city. We're more interconnected with travel than the chinese, our military isn't in a position domestically to be used immediately for locking down travel. It will run amok. We just don't know how bad it will be yet.
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'China was extremely proactive..in a draconian way.'
Not as proactive as the Norks, who have supposed killed at least 1 of their identified cases.
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China was extremely proactive..in a draconian way. This is where freedom has it's downsides. It takes serious issues before the US would dare do something like quarantine a whole city. We're more interconnected with travel than the chinese, our military isn't in a position domestically to be used immediately for locking down travel. It will run amok. We just don't know how bad it will be yet.
China was reactively proactive. Before they closed down Wuhan and started locking people up lots and lots of people left the area carrying the disease spreading it to other parts of China. Way more than have entered the US with it, I'd wager. Probably by a factor of 10 or more.
I agree that the US is much less likely to use the same forceful measures as China, but to balance that our hygiene is probably significantly better which is likely to slow the spread. I think that if it was going to blow up in the US the way some people are worried about then it would have already happened in China and elsewhere.
Not that it is a non-issue. It is spreading quite a bit and sickening quite a few people. The death rate isn't apocalyptic but it is killing quite a few.
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I was talking with a neighbor yesterday. He's a major in the Air Force and his thing is hospital administration and care services. He made the comment I made here several days ago, that even if the infection rate here in the US takes off it's likely to be a lot less lethal than it is in China due simply to the standards of supportive care.
And here's a really nasty way of looking at the Chinese reaction...
They have their "social credit" or "social currency" or whatever it's called. You think someone with a low social credit score is going to be given the same care as someone with an excellent social credit score?
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I was talking with a neighbor yesterday. He's a major in the Air Force and his thing is hospital administration and care services. He made the comment I made here several days ago, that even if the infection rate here in the US takes off it's likely to be a lot less lethal than it is in China due simply to the standards of supportive care.
And here's a really nasty way of looking at the Chinese reaction...
They have their "social credit" or "social currency" or whatever it's called. You think someone with a low social credit score is going to be given the same care as someone with an excellent social credit score?
Yes and no. The US has a severe shortage of available ICU beds to handle even the low end estimates of this. We are short especially of ventilators.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044
Double digit percentages from this study needed a ventilator.
While the US's standard of critical care is very, very high typically, it would be an issue based on sheer numbers.
https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-Statistics
According to this article, as of 2015 there were fewer than 100,000 ICU beds in the country. That's for a total of 321 million people.
Numbers from China
"That burden could become more acute: More than 40,000 people are hospitalized with Covid-19 in Hubei, health authorities for the Chinese province said in a Feb. 23 statement. Among those, 8,853 cases are serious and 1,845 are critically ill. The total number of cases in China is about 77,000."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-23/coronavirus-patients-long-ventilator-stays-strain-hospitals
The need for acute care is one of the serious issues with COVID-19. And I doubt the US is prepared if it spreads like wildfire.
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The testing is what this administration and the CDC dropped the ball on. They just barely started screening flights from Italy YESTERDAY. Insane stupidity. Testing should have been ramped up weeks ago, with screening of flights from any hotzone that wasn't outright banned, including testing.
The genie is out of the bottle on this, but unchecked it could run wild through many of our cities. For most of us, it will be just the flu, or nothing at all.
But for those who get sick, many more will need hospital services that will overwhelmed. And the risk for death with comorbidity factors goes up a lot.
That is the sort of response to immigration and travel that the administration has been fighting in the courts for 3 years with limited success. Do you think any past administration in the last 40 years would have quickly shut down and screened all travelers? I think the death rate would have to be a lot higher to generate that sort of response.
And I have my doubts that such efforts would do more than just delay or slow the spread to the US.
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That is the sort of response to immigration and travel that the administration has been fighting in the courts for 3 years with limited success. Do you think any past administration in the last 40 years would have quickly shut down and screened all travelers? I think the death rate would have to be a lot higher to generate that sort of response.
And I have my doubts that such efforts would do more than just delay the slow the spread to the US.
Slow spread is the ultimate goal. That's how the world community beat SARS. And Ebola when it got out.
China told us this was serious in January. It's March. We've had 2 months to ramp up testing. The CDC dropped the ball, pure and simple.
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Slow spread is the ultimate goal. That's how the world community beat SARS. And Ebola when it got out.
China told us this was serious in January. It's March. We've had 2 months to ramp up testing. The CDC dropped the ball, pure and simple.
Compared to a lot of countries that trade with China, we have slowed the spread. But you are on a roll, don't let me stop you. =)
Maybe Trump should copy Obama's ebola policy and bring some infected people to a US hospital for treatment.
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Compared to a lot of countries that trade with China, we have slowed the spread. But you are on a roll, don't let me stop you. =)
Maybe Trump should copy Obama's ebola policy and bring some infected people to a US hospital for treatment.
Keep your head in the sand on this one, don't let me stop you.
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Maybe Trump should copy Obama's ebola policy and bring some infected people to a US hospital for treatment.
Haven't we done exactly that? Pretty sure that at minimum we repatriated both the infected and non-infected passengers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship ...
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Haven't we done exactly that? Pretty sure that at minimum we repatriated both the infected and non-infected passengers from the Diamond Princess cruise ship ...
I thought they quarantined them at an army base? I didn't see it as the same. Opinions may vary.
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I thought they quarantined them at an army base? I didn't see it as the same. Opinions may vary.
Several whistleblowers stated that they weren't handled correctly in transit, IE escorted by people in PPE.
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Keep your head in the sand on this one, don't let me stop you.
Don't misunderstand, I don't mean to criticize your concern. I am doing my part to make sure I am personally prepared to weather things. I am reacting mostly your habit of saying the govt is dropping the ball in one way or the other. But I guess starting with the assumption the govt is dropping the ball may be correct the majority of the time. =D
I am also a bit concerned that if the FedGov has a policy of quick heavy handed reaction to stuff like this, it will be more like the the TSA rather than what we would actually want.
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I am also a bit concerned that if the FedGov has a policy of quick heavy handed reaction to stuff like this, it will be more like the the TSA rather than what we would actually want.
Heavy handed, expensive, and ineffective to boot.
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Italy announced they are closing all of their public schools to help prevent the spread of infections. They also have quarantined 11 towns.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/italy-coronavirus-schools-universities-close
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Italy announced they are closing all of their public schools to help prevent the spread of infections. They also have quarantined 11 towns.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/italy-coronavirus-schools-universities-close
This is where I think the US is going to have a tough time. We may have better intensive medical care but there will be significant resistance to closing schools/businesses.
And quarantining entire cities?
WENZHOU, China — More than 500 miles from the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, 30 million people are in lockdown — some quite literally locked in their homes — as Chinese authorities resort to extreme lengths to curb the spread of a respiratory illness that has stubbornly defied containment.
Across the coastal province of Zhejiang, the worst-hit area after Hubei province, four big cities have essentially put their populations under a form of house arrest: Only one person from each household is allowed to leave, and only every second day, to buy supplies.
To leave their residential compounds and to enter supermarkets, residents must have their government-issued ticket — a kind of passport to the outside world — stamped or their special identification codes scanned. Their temperatures are recorded at every gate.
If that is what it actually takes to contain it, I think the US is going to end up with a pretty high infection rate.
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Don't misunderstand, I don't mean to criticize your concern. I am doing my part to make sure I am personally prepared to weather things. I am reacting mostly your habit of saying the govt is dropping the ball in one way or the other. But I guess starting with the assumption the govt is dropping the ball may be correct the majority of the time. =D
I am also a bit concerned that if the FedGov has a policy of quick heavy handed reaction to stuff like this, it will be more like the the TSA rather than what we would actually want.
Right now my biggest concern is how long it took the CDC to make testing available, even going so far as telling doctors who were begging to have clearly exposed patients tested "no". And now, with testing supposedly in full swing, the CDC isn't telling us how those numbers are bearing out. Their site is void of any current data on testing.
That's worse than heavy handed in my opinion.
Everyone keeps pointing to how china "only" had 2800 deaths and around 80,000 infections. China went full draconian lockdown to get those numbers.
I guess at this point, since Uncle Sam wants to keep us in the dark, we're all along for the ride in a wait and see mode.
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Right now my biggest concern is how long it took the CDC to make testing available, even going so far as telling doctors who were begging to have clearly exposed patients tested "no". And now, with testing supposedly in full swing, the CDC isn't telling us how those numbers are bearing out. Their site is void of any current data on testing.
That's worse than heavy handed in my opinion.
Everyone keeps pointing to how china "only" had 2800 deaths and around 80,000 infections. China went full draconian lockdown to get those numbers.
I guess at this point, since Uncle Sam wants to keep us in the dark, we're all along for the ride in a wait and see mode.
If you believe the numbers China is reporting. There are leaks that say real numbers are 10 times higher.
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If you believe the numbers China is reporting. There are leaks that say real numbers are 10 times higher.
I started this thread with a second hand report of 50x the "official" numbers.
There's also the SO2 bloom in the area that is unusual (supposedly), and at least some folks say saying it's indicative of mass cremations and/or medical waste incineration.
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If you believe the numbers China is reporting. There are leaks that say real numbers are 10 times higher.
Not something I wouldn't put past them. They need this to go away so they can spool their economy back up.
Seeing them pretty much go zero carbon emissions overnight is a bit concerning for the global economy.
Long term maybe we'll take back some of our manufacturing control, or spread it around.
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First death in California reported. Brings the US death toll to 11.
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First death in California reported. Brings the US death toll to 11.
Was a Diamond Princess passenger.
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an elderly adult with underlying health issues.
Yup, we all gonna die.
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https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html#2019coronavirus-summary
The CDC page with numbers is back. Looks to be lagging behind a bit but it's back nonetheless.
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There's also anecdotal reports of people in the US complaining of mild (but hung on for a week or more) self-resolving Covid-19-like symptoms going back to January. So who knows how many low-symptom or asymptomatic cases are out there, and unless you do the working-backwards CDC estimations, we may never know.
So that could be "good news" in terms of if the cases that weren't severe dwarfs the number of hospitalizations and deaths.
Then again, "more is more" and if there's millions of non critical cases, the number of hospitalizations could still swamp the system I guess.
Right now my gut feeling is that American infrastructure, American hygiene, American individual cars, and American personal space, plus the beginning of the spring/summer season is going to make Covid-19 about as bad as an additional/extra flu season on top of the regular one, with somewhat noticeable higher numbers because of the virus being novel. And that means the susceptible sick and elderly people that do the majority of the dying are not going to have "flu shots" for this, nor are they going to have whatever residual immunity all the previous flu strains they've ever been exposed to has given them like they would for the actual flu-flu. I think this'll wreak havoc in nursing homes, and in hospitals where people are already being cared for other illnesses.
We still don't have straight answers out of China, and for all we know they overreacted, and all the incinerators are for medical waste, not bodies. I see it being possible in their pseudo-communist system that the authorities were escalating the situation by all engaging in one-upmanship of "better safe than sorry" activities. Maybe they were hospitalizing everyone that shows up coughing, and not doing it on some more concrete criteria like vital signs, temp, BP, pulse-ox etc.
I reserve the right to be wrong. But if a normal average influenza season is a "1" on a scale to "10" being 1918, I think Covid-19 is going to be a 2-3 tops in the U.S. There's going to be a lot of Costco members sitting on a lifetime supply of toilet paper...
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The WHO is now saying the mortality rate is 3.4% ... up from the 2% that had estimated previously.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html
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The WHO is now saying the mortality rate is 3.4% ... up from the 2% that had estimated previously.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html
That’s the known case rate. I can’t find where I got it now, but the “actual” rate is likely closer to .94
Still way higher than the flu, but not the apocalyptic mess 3.4% would be.
The 3.4% is based off people who’ve tested positive, with no allowance for those who haven’t been tested.
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Now "they" are saying there are two strains, meaning the virus has already mutated.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html
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Now "they" are saying there are two strains, meaning the virus has already mutated.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html
It's what viruses do and they do it well.
bob
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The good news is the new strain is less serious.
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Speaking as someone involved in patient care, COVID-19 testing is not right now available to us unless the patient meets certain criteria. This is by edict of our state and local public health departments. I don't see this changing until the capacity to do the testing increases dramatically. Right now in Washington state, the state public health lab in Shoreline is the only testing agency. Although the University of Washington hopes to start in a few days.
So if a patient comes in and wants testing on demand, but does not meet the testing criteria, we cannot do the test for them as of today.
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Speaking as someone involved in patient care, COVID-19 testing is not right now available to us unless the patient meets certain criteria. This is by edict of our state and local public health departments. I don't see this changing until the capacity to do the testing increases dramatically. Right now in Washington state, the state public health lab in Shoreline is the only testing agency. Although the University of Washington hopes to start in a few days.
So if a patient comes in and wants testing on demand, but does not meet the testing criteria, we cannot do the test for them as of today.
It's that way everywhere in the U.S., and it's going to create problems. Heck, I'm sure it has already created problems, but some of them haven't developed fully as yet. If someone comes in with vague flu-like symptoms, wants to be tested, and is sent home without testing because he/she doesn't meet some criteria, he/she has two choices: (1) play safe and self-quarantine for two weeks; or (2) assume he/she doesn't have it and go out in the world -- possibly spreading the disease around.
What are the criteria that qualify someone for being tested?
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Speaking as someone involved in patient care, COVID-19 testing is not right now available to us unless the patient meets certain criteria. This is by edict of our state and local public health departments. I don't see this changing until the capacity to do the testing increases dramatically. Right now in Washington state, the state public health lab in Shoreline is the only testing agency. Although the University of Washington hopes to start in a few days.
So if a patient comes in and wants testing on demand, but does not meet the testing criteria, we cannot do the test for them as of today.
I have no problem with reserving the test kits for those who may have an actual exposure. We had a run yesterday where we would have tested 100 people if we did what they wanted. People who had a cousin who was in China 6 months ago and there has been no contact with that cousin since they returned does not get you a corona virus test even if you swallowed something wrong at breakfast and started coughing. :facepalm:
bob
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I have to think this represents a tremendous market opportunity for the first commercial lab to get a test kit out on the market. I bet a bunch of people would pay $ 100 out of pocket to be tested.
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It's that way everywhere in the U.S., and it's going to create problems. Heck, I'm sure it has already created problems, but some of them haven't developed fully as yet. If someone comes in with vague flu-like symptoms, wants to be tested, and is sent home without testing because he/she doesn't meet some criteria, he/she has two choices: (1) play safe and self-quarantine for two weeks; or (2) assume he/she doesn't have it and go out in the world -- possibly spreading the disease around.
What are the criteria that qualify someone for being tested?
Most will take option b because they have been told it's just the flu.
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Sorry, VIP section again but the straight twitter link is below. Not much in the way of details though
Top virologist working on the coronavirus's genetic code told me people who get covid-19 and recover build up resistance to it. Children seem to be quite resilient. Danger is to the elderly. Mortality rate (especially over 80yrs) is higher than overcall average.
— Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) February 26, 2020
Very few children around the world are getting coronavirus but experts don’t know exactly why
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/05/very-few-children-around-the-world-are-getting-coronavirus-but-experts-dont-know-exactly-why/
https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1232784243631124481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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Most will take option b because they have been told it's just the flu.
Because they probably don't have Covid. The probability is very low right now that any given person has Covid.
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Sorry, VIP section again but the straight twitter link is below
Very few children around the world are getting coronavirus but experts don’t know exactly why
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/05/very-few-children-around-the-world-are-getting-coronavirus-but-experts-dont-know-exactly-why/
https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1232784243631124481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
So we should start harvesting the blood of the young? I'm already growing two healthy donors at my house. How much should I charge for transfusions?
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Sorry, VIP section again but the straight twitter link is below. Not much in the way of details though
Very few children around the world are getting coronavirus but experts don’t know exactly why
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/05/very-few-children-around-the-world-are-getting-coronavirus-but-experts-dont-know-exactly-why/
https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1232784243631124481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
I've been posting that type of information elsewhere. It's not just COVID-19, but many coronavirii. They just don't really infect children under 12. I know they have a doctor quoted in that article, but my research about SARS and MERS already indicated that those coronavirii don't tend to be particularly dangerous to children and are much harder for children to spread.
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Hey, I've got a great thought for those of you who think that the "Novel Coronavius"1 is already everywhere.
Since we have indications elsewhere that you can get re-infected after having it, maybe it's not the first round that is deadly, but that it gets worse with each subsequent infection. [tinfoil]
(Note: I don't think it's already everywhere, so I don't believe this theory. I'm just here to help with some fear-mongering. Be sure to suggest this to your conspiracy minded acquaintances.)
1: I've been noticing in recent reports that the reporters love to use that phrasing... because they think it makes them sound smarter to quote the doctors that are just saying it's new.
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The latest I heard was that people weren't getting reinfected, they weren't completely over it in the first place.
If you want to stimulate conspiracy theories, tell everyone Covid-19 is THE ANDROMEDA STRAIN. [tinfoil]
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The latest I heard was that people weren't getting reinfected, they weren't completely over it in the first place.
If you want to stimulate conspiracy theories, tell everyone Covid-19 is THE ANDROMEDA STRAIN. [tinfoil]
Considering the inconsistencies with the tests, that would make the most sense.
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I'm going to lock this thread. The conversation is very parallel with the one here http://www.armedpolitesociety.com/index.php?topic=61872.msg1245097#new so it make sense to combine it into one. Also going to close the city quarantine thread and unsticky that.