Covid-19 Extent

[Jamisjockey]

I thought they quarantined them at an army base?    I didn't see it as the same.  Opinions may vary.

Several whistleblowers stated that they weren't handled correctly in transit, IE escorted by people in PPE.

[MechAg94]

Keep your head in the sand on this one, don't let me stop you.

Don't misunderstand, I don't mean to criticize your concern.  I am doing my part to make sure I am personally prepared to weather things.  I am reacting mostly your habit of saying the govt is dropping the ball in one way or the other.  But I guess starting with the assumption the govt is dropping the ball may be correct the majority of the time.      

I am also a bit concerned that if the FedGov has a policy of quick heavy handed reaction to stuff like this, it will be more like the the TSA rather than what we would actually want.

[cordex]

I am also a bit concerned that if the FedGov has a policy of quick heavy handed reaction to stuff like this, it will be more like the the TSA rather than what we would actually want.

Heavy handed, expensive, and ineffective to boot.

[Fly320s]

Italy announced they are closing all of their public schools to help prevent the spread of infections.  They also have quarantined 11 towns.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/italy-coronavirus-schools-universities-close

[DittoHead]

Italy announced they are closing all of their public schools to help prevent the spread of infections.  They also have quarantined 11 towns.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/italy-coronavirus-schools-universities-close

This is where I think the US is going to have a tough time. We may have better intensive medical care but there will be significant resistance to closing schools/businesses. 
And quarantining entire cities?

WENZHOU, China — More than 500 miles from the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, 30 million people are in lockdown — some quite literally locked in their homes — as Chinese authorities resort to extreme lengths to curb the spread of a respiratory illness that has stubbornly defied containment.

Across the coastal province of Zhejiang, the worst-hit area after Hubei province, four big cities have essentially put their populations under a form of house arrest: Only one person from each household is allowed to leave, and only every second day, to buy supplies.

To leave their residential compounds and to enter supermarkets, residents must have their government-issued ticket — a kind of passport to the outside world — stamped or their special identification codes scanned. Their temperatures are recorded at every gate.

If that is what it actually takes to contain it, I think the US is going to end up with a pretty high infection rate.

[Jamisjockey]

Don't misunderstand, I don't mean to criticize your concern.  I am doing my part to make sure I am personally prepared to weather things.  I am reacting mostly your habit of saying the govt is dropping the ball in one way or the other.  But I guess starting with the assumption the govt is dropping the ball may be correct the majority of the time.      

I am also a bit concerned that if the FedGov has a policy of quick heavy handed reaction to stuff like this, it will be more like the the TSA rather than what we would actually want.

Right now my biggest concern is how long it took the CDC to make testing available, even going so far as telling doctors who were begging to have clearly exposed patients tested "no".  And now, with testing supposedly in full swing, the CDC isn't telling us how those numbers are bearing out.  Their site is void of any current data on testing.
That's worse than heavy handed in my opinion. 


Everyone keeps pointing to how china "only" had 2800 deaths and around 80,000 infections.  China went full draconian lockdown to get those numbers.

I guess at this point, since Uncle Sam wants to keep us in the dark, we're all along for the ride in a wait and see mode. 

[bedlamite]

Right now my biggest concern is how long it took the CDC to make testing available, even going so far as telling doctors who were begging to have clearly exposed patients tested "no".  And now, with testing supposedly in full swing, the CDC isn't telling us how those numbers are bearing out.  Their site is void of any current data on testing.
That's worse than heavy handed in my opinion. 


Everyone keeps pointing to how china "only" had 2800 deaths and around 80,000 infections.  China went full draconian lockdown to get those numbers.

I guess at this point, since Uncle Sam wants to keep us in the dark, we're all along for the ride in a wait and see mode. 

If you believe the numbers China is reporting. There are leaks that say real numbers are 10 times higher.

[Northwoods]

If you believe the numbers China is reporting. There are leaks that say real numbers are 10 times higher.

I started this thread with a second hand report of 50x the "official" numbers.

There's also the SO2 bloom in the area that is unusual (supposedly), and at least some folks say saying it's indicative of mass cremations and/or medical waste incineration.

[Jamisjockey]

If you believe the numbers China is reporting. There are leaks that say real numbers are 10 times higher.

Not something I wouldn't put past them.  They need this to go away so they can spool their economy back up. 

Seeing them pretty much go zero carbon emissions overnight is a bit concerning for the global economy.

Long term maybe we'll take back some of our manufacturing control, or spread it around.

[K Frame]

First death in California reported. Brings the US death toll to 11.

[Jamisjockey]

First death in California reported. Brings the US death toll to 11.

Was a Diamond Princess passenger. 

[RoadKingLarry]

an elderly adult with underlying health issues.

Yup, we all gonna die.

[Jamisjockey]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html#2019coronavirus-summary

The CDC page with numbers is back.  Looks to be lagging behind a bit but it's back nonetheless. 

[AJ Dual]

There's also anecdotal reports of people in the US complaining of mild (but hung on for a week or more) self-resolving Covid-19-like symptoms going back to January.  So who knows how many low-symptom or asymptomatic cases are out there, and unless you do the working-backwards CDC estimations, we may never know.

So that could be "good news" in terms of if the cases that weren't severe dwarfs the number of hospitalizations and deaths.

Then again, "more is more" and if there's millions of non critical cases, the number of hospitalizations could still swamp the system I guess.

Right now my gut feeling is that American infrastructure, American hygiene, American individual cars, and American personal space, plus the beginning of the spring/summer season is going to make Covid-19 about as bad as an additional/extra flu season on top of the regular one, with somewhat noticeable higher numbers because of the virus being novel. And that means the susceptible sick and elderly people that do the majority of the dying are not going to have "flu shots" for this, nor are they going to have whatever residual immunity all the previous flu strains they've ever been exposed to has given them like they would for the actual flu-flu.  I think this'll wreak havoc in nursing homes, and in hospitals where people are already being cared for other illnesses.

We still don't have straight answers out of China, and for all we know they overreacted, and all the incinerators are for medical waste, not bodies. I see it being possible in their pseudo-communist system that the authorities were escalating the situation by all engaging in one-upmanship of "better safe than sorry" activities. Maybe they were hospitalizing everyone that shows up coughing, and not doing it on some more concrete criteria like vital signs, temp, BP, pulse-ox etc.

I reserve the right to be wrong. But if a normal average influenza season is a "1" on a scale to "10" being 1918, I think Covid-19 is going to be a 2-3 tops in the U.S. There's going to be a lot of Costco members sitting on a lifetime supply of toilet paper...

[Hawkmoon]

The WHO is now saying the mortality rate is 3.4% ... up from the 2% that had estimated previously.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

[Jamisjockey]

The WHO is now saying the mortality rate is 3.4% ... up from the 2% that had estimated previously.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

That’s the known case rate.  I can’t find where I got it now, but the “actual” rate is likely closer to .94
Still way higher than the flu, but not the apocalyptic mess 3.4% would be.
The 3.4% is based off people who’ve tested positive, with no allowance for those who haven’t been tested.

[Hawkmoon]

Now "they" are saying there are two strains, meaning the virus has already mutated.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html

[BobR]

Now "they" are saying there are two strains, meaning the virus has already mutated.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html

It's what viruses do and they do it well.

bob

[Jamisjockey]

The good news is the new strain is less serious. 

[MillCreek]

Speaking as someone involved in patient care, COVID-19 testing is not right now available to us unless the patient meets certain criteria.  This is by edict of our state and local public health departments.  I don't see this changing until the capacity to do the testing increases dramatically.  Right now in Washington state, the state public health lab in Shoreline is the only testing agency.  Although the University of Washington hopes to start in a few days.

So if a patient comes in and wants testing on demand, but does not meet the testing criteria, we cannot do the test for them as of today.

[Hawkmoon]

Speaking as someone involved in patient care, COVID-19 testing is not right now available to us unless the patient meets certain criteria.  This is by edict of our state and local public health departments.  I don't see this changing until the capacity to do the testing increases dramatically.  Right now in Washington state, the state public health lab in Shoreline is the only testing agency.  Although the University of Washington hopes to start in a few days.

So if a patient comes in and wants testing on demand, but does not meet the testing criteria, we cannot do the test for them as of today.

It's that way everywhere in the U.S., and it's going to create problems. Heck, I'm sure it has already created problems, but some of them haven't developed fully as yet. If someone comes in with vague flu-like symptoms, wants to be tested, and is sent home without testing because he/she doesn't meet some criteria, he/she has two choices: (1) play safe and self-quarantine for two weeks; or (2) assume he/she doesn't have it and go out in the world -- possibly spreading the disease around.

What are the criteria that qualify someone for being tested?

[BobR]

Speaking as someone involved in patient care, COVID-19 testing is not right now available to us unless the patient meets certain criteria.  This is by edict of our state and local public health departments.  I don't see this changing until the capacity to do the testing increases dramatically.  Right now in Washington state, the state public health lab in Shoreline is the only testing agency.  Although the University of Washington hopes to start in a few days.

So if a patient comes in and wants testing on demand, but does not meet the testing criteria, we cannot do the test for them as of today.

I have no problem with reserving the test kits for those who may have an actual exposure. We had a run yesterday where we would have tested 100 people if we did what they wanted. People who had a cousin who was in China 6 months ago and there has been no contact with that cousin since they returned does not get you a corona virus test even if you swallowed something wrong at breakfast and started coughing. 

bob

[MillCreek]

I have to think this represents a tremendous market opportunity for the first commercial lab to get a test kit out on the market. I bet a bunch of people would pay $ 100 out of pocket to be tested.

[Jamisjockey]

It's that way everywhere in the U.S., and it's going to create problems. Heck, I'm sure it has already created problems, but some of them haven't developed fully as yet. If someone comes in with vague flu-like symptoms, wants to be tested, and is sent home without testing because he/she doesn't meet some criteria, he/she has two choices: (1) play safe and self-quarantine for two weeks; or (2) assume he/she doesn't have it and go out in the world -- possibly spreading the disease around.

What are the criteria that qualify someone for being tested?

Most will take option b because they have been told it's just the flu.

[WLJ]

Sorry, VIP section again but the straight twitter link is below. Not much in the way of details though

   Top virologist working on the coronavirus's genetic code told me people who get covid-19 and recover build up resistance to it. Children seem to be quite resilient. Danger is to the elderly. Mortality rate (especially over 80yrs) is higher than overcall average.

    — Richard Engel (@RichardEngel) February 26, 2020

Very few children around the world are getting coronavirus but experts don’t know exactly why
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/05/very-few-children-around-the-world-are-getting-coronavirus-but-experts-dont-know-exactly-why/


https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1232784243631124481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw