Author Topic: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain  (Read 1386 times)

Brad Johnson

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LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« on: December 12, 2022, 12:25:07 PM »
Story out of Fox news reporting Lawrence Livermore National Labs may have surpassed the fusion power net-gain threshold. Says sources close to the research are claiming the results are "confirmed".

https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/us-scientists-make-major-breakthrough-limitless-zero-carbon-fusion-energy-report

Story says they will be releasing a statement tomorrow (Tuesday). Yeah, this is exciting.

Brad
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HankB

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2022, 12:38:36 PM »
So maybe commercialization of cheap fusion power is only 20 years away.

(Just like it has been since 1960.)
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ConstitutionCowboy

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2022, 12:53:21 PM »
I hope it is true. That said, let me know when I can buy a unit no bigger than my stand-by generator and unplug from the grid.  [popcorn]

Woody :old:
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WLJ

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2022, 01:07:33 PM »
"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

dogmush

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2022, 01:14:16 PM »
I was thinking more like this:



Should make drive-by's more interesting

Perd Hapley

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2022, 01:37:43 PM »
We'd better get this technology to the Saudis and Venezuelans, so we can buy more energy from them.
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RocketMan

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2022, 02:28:14 PM »
Even if they have reached net gain energy production, I don't really see how well suited this particular version of fusion tech will be for commercial power production.  It's very unwieldy and complicated, and will have to produce much more energy, well beyond the break even point, to be practicable.
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Brad Johnson

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2022, 02:35:53 PM »
Even if they have reached net gain energy production, I don't really see how well suited this particular version of fusion tech will be for commercial power production.  It's very unwieldy and complicated, and will have to produce much more energy, well beyond the break even point, to be practicable.

Isn't there a startup trying to go mainstream with direct conversion?

Brad
It's all about the pancakes, people.
"And he thought cops wouldn't chase... a STOLEN DONUT TRUCK???? That would be like Willie Nelson ignoring a pickup full of weed."
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ConstitutionCowboy

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2022, 02:50:20 PM »
Isn't there a startup trying to go mainstream with direct conversion?

Brad

I've got a hundred dollars I'd be willing to invest for 1,000 shares....Just for the speculation, of course.........

Woody
   "Knowing the past, I'll not surrender any arms and march less prepared into the future."   B.E.Wood

zahc

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2022, 04:26:24 PM »
Not even slightly exciting. First of all it's not a world first, just a LLNL first. Second, it's not a meaningful metric. Third, doesn't matter anyway because there's no path to commercialization of fusion for energy production, and we already know how to use fusion for bombs.
Maybe a rare occurence, but then you only have to get murdered once to ruin your whole day.
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ConstitutionCowboy

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2022, 06:35:02 PM »
Fusion works great on the Sun due to all that immense gravity creating the necessary pressure.

If it manages to become practical here - however it is accomplished - think of all the helium that will be generated that can fill blimps and dirigibles! Oh, and party balloons! And helium for TIG welding!

OK, I'll go another hundred for a thousand more shares ...... =)

Woody
   "Knowing the past, I'll not surrender any arms and march less prepared into the future."   B.E.Wood

K Frame

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2022, 07:45:36 PM »
If fusion becomes viable, think about all of the countries that rose solely because they control petroleum falling back into the stone-age Bedouin sand dune tribal backwaters that they were 120 years ago...
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zahc

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2022, 11:47:55 PM »
If fusion becomes viable, think about all of the countries that rose solely because they control petroleum falling back into the stone-age Bedouin sand dune tribal backwaters that they were 120 years ago...

Why would that happen if fusion became viable? It didn't happen, and fission is already perfectly viable.
Maybe a rare occurence, but then you only have to get murdered once to ruin your whole day.
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230RN

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #13 on: December 13, 2022, 02:15:43 AM »
We'd better get this technology to the Saudis and Venezuelans, so we can buy more energy from them.

Too true to be funny.

How long was it between Chicago Pile-1 and a practical fission power  plant was developed?

Quote
Chicago Pile-1 - Wikipedia
Chicago Pile-1 ( CP-1) was the world's first artificial nuclear reactor. On 2 December 1942, the first human-made self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction was initiated in CP-1, during an experiment led by Enrico Fermi.

<aside, stage-whisper>
K-Frame, I like your "predictions."  I'll never understand how such a brilliant culture, which gave us our numbering system, al-gebra, named most of our stars, laid out the principles of the experimental method, et cetera, could have fallen into such rabid idiocy.
</aside, stage-whisper>

Terry, 230RN
« Last Edit: December 13, 2022, 03:08:23 AM by 230RN »
WHATEVER YOUR DEFINITION OF "INFRINGE " IS, YOU SHOULDN'T BE DOING IT.

K Frame

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #14 on: December 13, 2022, 07:47:43 AM »
Why would that happen if fusion became viable? It didn't happen, and fission is already perfectly viable.

Think about it.

Nuke plants are horrifically expensive to build, have significant drawbacks regarding waste disposal, and require insane amounts of monitoring and maintenance.

And, at the time, an all-electrical society of the kind that is now being pushed simply wasn't viable. Electric cars weren't viable, coal, oil and gas as fuels were significantly less expensive, the list goes on and on.

Now, however, fusion has the potential to supply virtually unlimited amounts of energy with virtually none of the waste that nuke plants generate and fission systems have potentially unlimited lifespans with very little of the kind of maintenance that dooms nuclear to being as expensive as it is. Electric vehicles are far more viable now than they were at the start of the nuclear age and coal, gas, and oil are becoming progressively more expensive.

Edison, Tesla, and Westinghouse all saw the potential for a world powered by electric with virtually no need for coal, gas, or oil. If fusion actually becomes a viable energy source, what they saw becomes a distinct possibility.

Yes, there would still be need for oil to some degree for lubricants, industrial uses such as plastics and the like, but with the power potential offered by fusion the price of oil would, over time, plummet and become largely irrelevant.

Carbon Monoxide, sucking the life out of idiots, 'tards, and fools since man tamed fire.

K Frame

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #15 on: December 13, 2022, 07:52:04 AM »
"How long was it between Chicago Pile-1 and a practical fission power  plant was developed?"

Well, we still don't have a practical fission power plant yet, so that clock is still ticking.
Carbon Monoxide, sucking the life out of idiots, 'tards, and fools since man tamed fire.

RoadKingLarry

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2022, 08:38:01 AM »
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

Samuel Adams

MechAg94

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #17 on: December 13, 2022, 08:54:02 AM »
"How long was it between Chicago Pile-1 and a practical fission power  plant was developed?"

Well, we still don't have a practical fission power plant yet, so that clock is still ticking.
I would argue that we have or have designed practical fission plants, but we won't build them because everyone is afraid of the impractical fission plants. 

And I don't think the existing nuke plants necessarily require that much maintenance compared to other plants, but I haven't seen numbers.  I always assumed it was the bureaucratic oversight and paperwork that made them expensive to build and maintain.  I figure if we actually tried to build some of the smaller more practical designs, we might see more efficiency.  Fusion sounds great, but until we actually build one, we won't know what we are getting into.
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230RN

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #18 on: December 13, 2022, 08:58:41 AM »
I would argue that we have or have designed practical fission plants, but we won't build them because everyone is afraid of the impractical fission plants. 

And I don't think the existing nuke plants necessarily require that much maintenance compared to other plants, but I haven't seen numbers.  I always assumed it was the bureaucratic oversight and paperwork that made them expensive to build and maintain.  I figure if we actually tried to build some of the smaller more practical designs, we might see more efficiency.  Fusion sounds great, but until we actually build one, we won't know what we are getting into.
Generally agree, professional naysayers notwithstanding. 😂
WHATEVER YOUR DEFINITION OF "INFRINGE " IS, YOU SHOULDN'T BE DOING IT.

HankB

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #19 on: December 13, 2022, 09:06:54 AM »
An awful lot of the cost of fission plants comes from excessive government meddling. Reprocessing waste would extend the fuel supply, but since Jimmy Carter was POTUS we haven't done that. (Wasn't his then pre-teen daughter Amy his nuke policy adviser?)

I've read that cost per kwH for nuke plants - even WITH government meddling - is fairly low.

https://www.nei.org/news/2018/cost-of-nuclear-generation-reaches-10-year-low

Quote
. . .According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, new natural gas-fired plants come with a levelized cost of $48 per MWh compared to existing nuclear’s cost of $33.50 per MWh.
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Sometimes I wonder if the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it. - Mark Twain
Government is a broker in pillage, and every election is a sort of advance auction in stolen goods. - H.L. Mencken
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K Frame

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #20 on: December 13, 2022, 09:13:41 AM »
Damn it...

I keep getting fission and fusion confused.

In response to Terry's question, the first viable fission plant was EBR-1 in 1951, but it only produced enough electric to power its facility.

The first full-scale commercial nuclear power plant was the Shippingport (Pennsylvania) power plant, which was commissioned for use in 1958.
Carbon Monoxide, sucking the life out of idiots, 'tards, and fools since man tamed fire.

RoadKingLarry

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #21 on: December 13, 2022, 09:19:49 AM »
There were earlier practical "non-commercial" fission plants.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Nautilus_(SSN-571)
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

Samuel Adams

K Frame

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #22 on: December 13, 2022, 09:23:17 AM »
Yes, there were.

I was going at it from a commercial aspect.

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230RN

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #23 on: December 13, 2022, 10:57:25 AM »
Thank goodness for ADM Hyman Rickover.

Yeah, fision and fussion are hard to keep straight.

I can keep red lights and green lights straight

I always get June and July mixed up.

I't's getting harder to tell boys from girls anymore.

😏
WHATEVER YOUR DEFINITION OF "INFRINGE " IS, YOU SHOULDN'T BE DOING IT.

WLJ

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Re: LLNL may have surpassed fusion power net-gain
« Reply #24 on: December 13, 2022, 11:03:14 AM »
"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes