Author Topic: Consumer borrowing down 14.8 billion in September  (Read 1156 times)

Balog

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Consumer borrowing down 14.8 billion in September
« on: November 08, 2009, 11:06:07 PM »
I wonder what all the "economists" predicting a "jobless recovery" will make of this?  ;/ On the other hand, maybe America is finally waking up to the fact that whipping out the credit card everytime you see some shiny pretty you can't afford is a bad idea.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consumer-borrowing-drops-148B-apf-3777546440.html?x=0


Consumer borrowing drops by $14.8 billion in September, record 8th straight decline

    * By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
    * On 7:38 pm EST, Friday November 6, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumers borrowed less for a record eighth straight month in September amid rising unemployment and tight credit conditions. Economists worry the declines in borrowing will drag on the fledgling recovery.

The Federal Reserve said Friday that borrowing fell at an annual rate of $14.8 billion in September. That's the biggest decline since July and was larger than the $10 billion drop economists expected.

Americans are borrowing less as they try to repair cracked nest eggs and replenish rainy day funds in a dismal jobs market. Many are finding it hard to get credit as banks, hit by the worst financial crisis in decades, have tightened lending standards.

Borrowing by consumers for revolving credit, including credit cards, fell at an annual rate of 13.3 percent in September, the same as August. This category has declined for a record 12 straight months.

Borrowing for non-revolving loans, including auto loans, dropped at an annual rate of 3.7 percent in September after edging up 0.1 percent in August. The August gain reflected the surge in car sales as consumers rushed to take advantage of the government's Cash for Clunkers program.

The $14.8 billion overall decline in borrowing left total consumer credit at $2.46 trillion in September. The 7.2 percent annual rate of decline followed a 4.8 percent drop in August. The Fed's report doesn't include mortgages or other loans secured by real estate.

While economists have worried for years about the low rate of U.S. savings, the concern is that consumers could derail the recovery if they begin socking away too much of their incomes. Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity.

The government reported last week that the overall economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the July-September quarter, the first growth after a record four straight declines and the strongest signal yet that the recession has ended.

Some worry that growth will sag in coming quarters partly because the nation's unemployment rate keeps rising. It climbed to 10.2 percent in October, the Labor Department reported Friday, the first time above 10 percent since 1983. Many economists believe the jobless rate will rise further in coming months.

But there some positive signs this week that consumer spending may not weaken as much as had been feared. The nation's automakers reported that total sales of cars and light trucks rose 12 percent in October from a dismal September, a month when sales plunged because the clunkers program ended in August.

Also, the nation's big retail chains reported that consumers spent a bit more last month. Sales rose 2.1 percent compared with sales at the same stores in October 2008, according to a tally by International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs. That was the best year-over-year result since July 2008 and beat estimates of a 1 percent gain.

Among stores doing well were: Costco Wholesale Corp.; TJX Cos., which operates T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, and Gap Inc. Sales also improved at luxury retailers like Saks Inc. and Nordstrom Inc.

The eight consecutive declines in consumer credit is the longest stretch on records dating to 1943. The previous record of seven straight drops from June through December 1991, also occurred when the country was struggling to emerge from a recession.
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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Consumer borrowing down 14.8 billion in September
« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2009, 11:07:20 PM »
Hooray for deflation!

This mess ain't over yet, folks.

Balog

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Re: Consumer borrowing down 14.8 billion in September
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2009, 11:15:24 PM »
Umm, am I missing something? How is deflation related to less people borrowing? honest question, I don't understand your point.
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RocketMan

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Re: Consumer borrowing down 14.8 billion in September
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2009, 11:36:29 PM »
Deflation?  Where did the article mention deflation?

Although, I agree with your notion that it ain't over yet.
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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Consumer borrowing down 14.8 billion in September
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2009, 09:29:03 AM »
The short answer is that in a fractional reserve money system (like ours) the money supply expands when credit is issued out into the economy, and it shrinks when credit is taken out of the economy.

The essence of the financial problems this past year has been a sharp and sudden decrease in the amount of money available and spendable in the economy - deflation - due to reduced lending.

AZRedhawk44

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Re: Consumer borrowing down 14.8 billion in September
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2009, 09:34:06 AM »
Frankly, I consider this a good thing.

Nothing wrong with the nation as a whole paying off debt.

That is the type of "bailout" that our lending institutions need.  After all, when I get my $8000 new home buyer stimulus tax credit, I'm going to be paying off debt with it rather than buying a 60" TV and putting a down payment on a new car (and getting more debt). ;/

Of course, I may not even HAVE $8000 worth of debt by the time I get the $8000 stimulus.  Well... aside from my new mortgage. ;)

Boo-hoo... various Visa accounts aren't getting their 3% on new credit transactions, or revenue from 10-20% interest on balances.  Good for consumers.  Seems we might be smarting-up.
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