The Methuselah Manifesto: Witnessing the launch of Immortality, Inc.?[

[Nick1911]

tyme;

Holy cow.

I don't have metrics to back up my assertion.  Unfortunately, technological advancement isn't a quantitative variable we can plot on charts without introducing some subjective opinions.

Maybe

Technology is accelerating at an exponential pace.

...isn't a true statement.  I sure can't prove it is.  Sorry I brought it up.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

I can't speak for all technology, but at the company I work for our technology is growing exponentially.  The board figured this out a few months ago, and now all of our progress benchmarks are plotted logarithmically.  D'oh!

[tyme]

I'm a Kurzweil hater; sorry for taking it out on you.

The "technological growth is exponential" folks, led by Kurzweil, tend to use that to suggest that a timeline of future discoveries is predictable.  That's why I have a cow over it.

[grey54956]

Extended lifespan isn't necessarily a problem.  Even if aging could be stopped completely, there is still virulent disease, war, and accidental death to eliminate the ageless meatbags.  

Sooner or later, boredom will take its toll on some and they'll figure out dangerous, self-destructive hobbies.  

I don't think that extended lifespans would be a huge problem.

[RevDisk]

Sooner or later, boredom will take its toll on some and they'll figure out dangerous, self-destructive hobbies.  

This is bad?

[MicroBalrog]

This is bad?

Isn't this what humans... already do?

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

Isn't this what humans... already do?

Speak for yourself.  I like my life and take care of it.

[RaspberrySurprise]

Zeus help us if the Gummint gets their mitts on the research processes though.

[AJ Dual]

I'm a Kurzweil hater; sorry for taking it out on you.

The "technological growth is exponential" folks, led by Kurzweil, tend to use that to suggest that a timeline of future discoveries is predictable.  That's why I have a cow over it.

Well, my take on the potential for a Technological Singularity is that it's called a "Singularity" because after a certain point the timeline of future discoveries is NOT predictable.

I agree it's incredibly difficult to put a metric on technological progress. However, I think it cuts both ways, against those who are certain the Singularity is coming, vs. those who are just as certain it'll never happen.

Another problem is that technological and scientific developments run way, way ahead of practical applications. Much or most of what we have now is really just applications of things developed in the 1980's or even earlier. Now we have prototypes of 3d cell printers, micro-fluidic labs, and DNA sequencers on a chip that hold the potential to do for liquids and chemistry/bio-chemistry that the IC chip did for computing.

Will all of these technologies that are at the same stage of infancy as when computers filled a warehouse and used vacuum tubes pan out? No. But it's also a very fair bet that some of them will.

[coppertales]

All of this will come crashing down if Obamacare passes.  The bill does not allow for old people.....chris3

[roo_ster]

I'm a Kurzweil hater; sorry for taking it out on you.

The "technological growth is exponential" folks, led by Kurzweil, tend to use that to suggest that a timeline of future discoveries is predictable.  That's why I have a cow over it.

tyme:

I am not  Kurzweil hater, more a Kurzweil dismisser.  He doesn't generate the level of emotion requisite for hate in me.

Thank you for pointing out the horse manure in the "we're progressing exponentially" assertion.  I like the metrics-based approach, but a history-based approach does pretty well, too. (Dark Ages, anyone?)

I think the second most common error in prediction is assuming current trends will go off forever at the same rate as today.  The first most common error is getting the current rate incorrect.

Frankly, I always sort of thought K-man and his sort were of the "eschatology for technically inclined atheists" type.  Obviously, some don't quite buy into it.

[MicroBalrog]

The Dark Ages were not actually 'dark', you know.

The term forgets contemporary advances in agriculture, architecture, and a dozen other things.

It was only during the very late Middle Ages that the plagues and famines really kicked in.

Le Goff's work is particularly interesting in terms of debunking the "Dark Ages" notion.

[brimic]

All of this will come crashing down if Obamacare passes.  The bill does not allow for old people.....chris3

I think it will get all of the .gov funding that is needed to keep the research going. Unfortunately the only people who will get longevity treatments will be those deemed by government boards to be worthy (faithful members of the party).

Think of hundreds of years of Nancy Pelosis, Chuck Schumers, and Harry Reids. On the upside, Hillary Clinton will probably be passed over.

[roo_ster]

The Dark Ages were not actually 'dark', you know.

The term forgets contemporary advances in agriculture, architecture, and a dozen other things.

It was only during the very late Middle Ages that the plagues and famines really kicked in.

Le Goff's work is particularly interesting in terms of debunking the "Dark Ages" notion.

I know, especially since my favorite history prof (Charles R. Bowlus) specialized in "Late Antiquity" and the Carolingians.  I would yank his chain occasionally.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

I think it will get all of the .gov funding that is needed to keep the research going. Unfortunately the only people who will get longevity treatments will be those deemed by government boards to be worthy (faithful members of the party).

Think of hundreds of years of Nancy Pelosis, Chuck Schumers, and Harry Reids. On the upside, Hillary Clinton will probably be passed over.

Hundreds of years of Nancy and Harry and Hillary would be a self-correcting phenomenon.

[drewtam]

Theoretically on paper.  Sure, maybe 15b.  Semi-realistically but wildly optimistic?  Far less, say 9 or 10.  Nothing to sneeze at.

I challenge you to back up that assertion with facts. Name a resource you think we have risk of running out that would limit our pop before 15B.
[I mean this as an academic/intellectual challenge, not a personal confrontation.]

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

Historically, people who bet that we won't have enough resources to go around tend to lose.

[roo_ster]

I challenge you to back up that assertion with facts. Name a resource you think we have risk of running out that would limit our pop before 15B.
[I mean this as an academic/intellectual challenge, not a personal confrontation.]

Come on, let's make it personal.

Live alligator gar at 5 paces.  I'll serve as referee.

[Perd Hapley]

Come on, let's make it personal.

Live alligator gar at 5 paces.  I'll serve as referee.

See, we're already back to the Dark Ages.  Won't you humans ever learn?      

[longeyes]

I'm trying to imagine a world where the 8.9 billion Moribunders sit by and permit the 100 million Eternals to enjoy unrestricted lifespans.  Uh, I really don't think so...

[Strings]

>Sooner or later, boredom will take its toll on some and they'll figure out dangerous, self-destructive hobbies.  <

Which will go on for a little while, until Slaanesh comes and eats all our souls...

[AJ Dual]

>Sooner or later, boredom will take its toll on some and they'll figure out dangerous, self-destructive hobbies.  <

Which will go on for a little while, until Slaanesh comes and eats all our souls...

I doubt it. That long into the post-Singularity era, they'll probably find our civilization and the Solar System to be comprised of a Dyson Sphere made of Computronium. If they fire weapons, the extra energy input will be welcome. And if they touch it, they will be absorbed, the rare earths and heavy metals which are difficult or impossible to transmute efficiently being especialy valulable.

If the aborption happens "humanely", the servants of Slaanesh may not even realize that they've been consumed. If the computing resources are trivial as opposed to the contribution of their constitutent elements into new computronium, their original patterns will be preserved, and they'll be provided with an artificial reality in which they can conduct battle, conquest, and whatever else they desire endlessly.

[MicroBalrog]

So essentially, we'll be Necrons?

[Strings]

No... we're more Orks.

WAAAARRRRRGGGGHHHHH!!!

[Harold Tuttle]