Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?

[Ben]

Done correctly guns could make Virginia go red this year. It is not as blue as people want us to think and gun owners are a lot more fired up than they were a few years ago thanks to our blackface governor. A decent senate candidate also hopefully driving turnout.

I could see that in VA given how crazy the gov there went on the anti-gun stuff. Other than the fact that I hadn't thought about it since it happened until you brought it up here. That's often the problem - if it doesn't get press right before the election, people forget.

[MechAg94]

I just learned this, and this doesn't speak to a sweep, but Biden did not get a poll bump after the DNC.

That's only happened twice before, with McGovern and Kerry and both lost.

No one is feeling the Bidenergy.

Some polls from battle-ground states have Trump in the MoE but others are showing him with a huge lead. So what to believe there?

Normally I would say it says a lot about the election, but this year is so volatile.  It is another reason Trump should win easily all things being equal (which they really are not). 

[makattak]

There's a better chance the 6.5 foot asteroid headed here the day before election day will kill all life on this planet.

[makattak]

I just learned this, and this doesn't speak to a sweep, but Biden did not get a poll bump after the DNC.

That's only happened twice before, with McGovern and Kerry and both lost.

No one is feeling the Bidenergy.

Some polls from battle-ground states have Trump in the MoE but others are showing him with a huge lead. So what to believe there?

Three times. Romney also got no bump.

[WLJ]

There's a better chance the 6.5 foot asteroid headed here the day before election day will kill all life on this planet.

Saw something where some Hollywood folks were freaking out about the planet destroying 6.5ft "asteroid". 

[Boomhauer]

Mike Adams: BREAKING: Antifa terrorists in Austin, Portland just received a large cache of weapons in preparation for coordinated multi-city “TET offensive” against America
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/08/mike-adams-breaking-antifa-terrorists-in-austin-portland-just-received-a-large-cache-of-weapons-in-preparation-for-coordinated-multi-city-tet-offensive-against-america/

Let’s get this party swinging like Saddam Hussein.

[RocketMan]

Mike Adams: BREAKING: Antifa terrorists in Austin, Portland just received a large cache of weapons in preparation for coordinated multi-city “TET offensive” against America
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/08/mike-adams-breaking-antifa-terrorists-in-austin-portland-just-received-a-large-cache-of-weapons-in-preparation-for-coordinated-multi-city-tet-offensive-against-america/

While China has been caught smuggling arms into this country before, that article and the site itself are just a tad too tin-foily for my taste.  It makes me question the veracity of the claims.

[WLJ]

While China has been caught smuggling arms into this country before, that article and the site itself are just a tad too tin-foily for my taste.  It makes me question the veracity of the claims.

Why I gave it a 5 out of 5 tin-foil hat rating.

[MillCreek]

[Nick1911]

While China has been caught smuggling arms into this country before, that article and the site itself are just a tad too tin-foily for my taste.  It makes me question the veracity of the claims.

Agreed.

And really, none of this feels that well organized.  Seems like there were protests/riots that came about fairly organically, and have been allowed to proceed in these places and grow by the actions of the local governments that are unwilling to take the necessary steps to restore order.

[RocketMan]

Why I gave it a 5 out of 5 tin-foil hat rating.

I completely missed that.  Shows how observant I am this morning.

[DittoHead]

I just learned this, and this doesn't speak to a sweep, but Biden did not get a poll bump after the DNC.

He didn't really need a bump if we're looking at historical comparisons.

Ahead of the Democratic convention, Biden had the largest pre-convention lead in two decades

Some polls from battle-ground states have Trump in the MoE but others are showing him with a huge lead.

Care to share?

[WLJ]

If polls were elections we would have been saying President Hillary Clinton for the pass 3.5 years

[K Frame]

Why would anyone need to smuggle in weapons from China?

According to the Dems, anyone who wants one needs only to walk down the street the local dealer in child deaths and walk out 3 seconds later fully semi-automatic assault gun.... for free... along with an endless supply of cop killer bullets (although I doubt that they're really all that upset about the cop killer bullets part these days).

[Perd Hapley]

Why would anyone need to smuggle in weapons from China?

According to the Dems, anyone who wants one needs only to walk down the street the local dealer in child deaths and walk out 3 seconds later fully semi-automatic assault gun.... for free... along with an endless supply of cop killer bullets (although I doubt that they're really all that upset about the cop killer bullets part these days).

   I'm old enough to remember when Democrats appealed to their voters with fear-mongering about cops being killed by criminals, and not the other way around.

[WLJ]

 I'm old enough to remember when Democrats appealed to their voters with fear-mongering about cops being killed by criminals, and not the other way around.

They figured out that cops can't be counted on to automatically vote straight democrat so they threw them under the bus

[just Warren]

He didn't really need a bump if we're looking at historical comparisons.Care to share?

Here's an article quoting Frank Luntz on the MoE:

https://amgreatness.com/2020/08/24/pollster-frank-luntz-says-recent-trends-have-been-in-trumps-favor/

The polls showing Trump leading I heard about from a Timcast video but he didn't provide a link. I find the guy credible though, so I'm assuming he is telling the truth here.

[WLJ]

Definitely a good sign or maybe most potential DNC viewers were too busy running around in the streets

    RNC viewership was 6X higher on CSPAN last night compared to the start of the DNC

    I guess Americans don’t really want to be told how terrible and racist their country is by a bunch of coastal elites and B-list celebrities on a poorly produced Zoom call

    🤔

    — Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) August 25, 2020

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/08/25/numbers-dont-lie-rnc-pulled-in-6x-the-number-of-cspan-viewers-than-the-dnc-and-thats-just-the-beginning/

[just Warren]

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/elliebufkin/2020/08/24/more-dnc-woes-new-poll-shows-major-drop-in-democratic-party-affiliation-n2574917

Dems losing people while Reps gaining. How much of a shift would it take to first guarantee a Trump win, second for it to be a landslide, and third, for it to be a sweep?

[K Frame]

"How much of a shift would it take to first guarantee a Trump win, second for it to be a landslide, and third, for it to be a sweep?"

Well, as I pointed out below, DC is the biggest reason why there will never be a Republican electoral college sweep.

In 2016, 90.86 percent of all DC voters picked Hillary. In none of the 8 wards did she get less than 80% votes cast, in 5 of them she got over 90% of the votes cast.

I mean hell, given the political situation in the country in 1984 and and Mondale still got over 85% of votes cast in DC.

I'm not sure, but I don't think that a Republican presidential candidate has ever won a single DC ward since DC residents started voting in presidential elections in 1964.

Ah, here we go...

From the Wikipedia entry on DC results in the 1980 presidential election...

"Carter's 74.9% of the vote represents the lowest vote won by a Democrat in the District of Columbia."

[Ben]

It appears the first night of the RNC convention pulled in six times the viewers as did the first night of the DNC convention. I hope this is an indicator that Trump will pull in enough electoral votes that the dems will look crazy when they say he stole the election.

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/08/25/numbers-dont-lie-rnc-pulled-in-6x-the-number-of-cspan-viewers-than-the-dnc-and-thats-just-the-beginning/

[Perd Hapley]

It appears the first night of the RNC convention pulled in six times the viewers as did the first night of the DNC convention. I hope this is an indicator that Trump will pull in enough electoral votes that the dems will look crazy when they say he stole the election.

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/08/25/numbers-dont-lie-rnc-pulled-in-6x-the-number-of-cspan-viewers-than-the-dnc-and-thats-just-the-beginning/

Just wake up? 

[DittoHead]

It appears the first night of the RNC convention pulled in six times the viewers as did the first night of the DNC convention.

Note that it's 6x C-Span viewers, not overall, and C-span is a relatively small potato in the big picture.

Across the three broadcast networks, the RNC night 1 drew around 4.9 million total viewers, a 14% drop from last Monday’s DNC first night which drew 5.7 million.

Looking at the networks individually, ABC scored the largest total viewership (as it did for the DNC), drawing 1.8 million viewers. NBC was right behind with 1.7 million, followed by CBS with 1.4 million.

As was the case with the DNC last week, it appears that the RNC is on course for much smaller numbers than the previous edition from four years ago. For comparison, the first night of the 2016 RNC delivered 10.1 million viewers in the preliminary broadcast ratings, more than twice the tally from this time around.

The fuller ratings picture for the RNC night 1 will become clearer later in the day when the cable news numbers will also be factored in.

[MechAg94]

Note that it's 6x C-Span viewers, not overall, and C-span is a relatively small potato in the big picture.

We will see what the whole picture looks like.  You might as well ask how many Fox News viewers watched the DNC convention.

I didn't watch the DNC or the RNC last night.  I already know how I will vote.  I think I will try to tune in for the President, or maybe watch in after the fact.  We have a hurricane coming into the area.

[just Warren]

https://thefederalist.com/2020/08/25/one-in-five-black-male-college-students-support-trump-in-new-poll/