Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences

[ilbob]

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig7/desousa1.html

http://americas.irc-online.org/am/4049
I guess brazil is stupid enough to subsidize US use of ethanol.

[Thor]

Here in MN, there has been a Government program to return valuable farmland back to nature. They call it "CRP". We lost some 100+ acres of productive farmland where I hunt due to the owner using the CRP program. The tax benefits seemed to have outweighed the agricultural benefits. I wonder what will happen now that there is the impetus to grow as much corn as one can?? The corn really attracted a lot of deer. Now, they're bedded down in the virtually impassable willows and swampgrass with little means to get them moving.

http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/programs/crp/

[Art Eatman]

Here's a summary of what I've learned about ethanol, these last several months:

There is a profit of about a buck a gallon, if corn is at some $2 per bushel.  At $4 per bushel, it's $0.09 per gallon, which won't cover the ROI needed for a viable operation.

It takes about 7 ethanol-gallons' worth of energy in to get ten gallons of ethanol out.  Brazil, using sugar cane, is 1 in for 10 out.

There are tax incentives for ethanol plants, and corn is subsidied (think ADM).  So, even bicycle riders and hikers are paying for auto fuel.

The increased (and marginal) acreage reduces wildlife habitat, notably affecting deer, antelope and pheasant hunters.

Much of this new planting is irrigated from the Ogalalla Aquifer.  The aquifer is already over-used, and is slow to recharge.  (It underlies the Greap Plains, from the Rockies to nearly the Mississippi; south into Texas.)

Farmers are not rotating crops as they should, which depletes soil nutrients--and increases bug problems and disease problems.  If they try to make it up from additional fertilizer, well, fertilizer requires a lot of electric energy in the process.  (Look up the ramifications of what happened to Egypt with the Aswan Dam.  No more natural fertilizing from Nile floods.  The electricity had to go to fertilizer plants instead of the intended use in cities.)

The diversion of corn into fuels rather than food has already started to raise the cost of meats as well as eggs, Post Toasties and Fritos.  (Hen scratch is up 40%.; $10 for a 50-pound bag instead of $7.)  Also, any foods which use corn syrup, such as most Hershey products--and hundreds of others.

Had enough?

Corn requires some 2.5 to 3 feet of water per acre.  Sugar cane requires six--which limits where you can grow it without irrigation.

IN summary, "gasohol" is one of the worst ideas to come down the pike in many a year.

Art

[Nitrogen]

Did you know that Corn-based ethanol is more expensive per joule of energy than gasoline, even with subsidies?

Put that in your fuel-cell and smoke it.

[Monkeyleg]

Art, you just explained in practice why ethanol doesn't work in theory.

But it doesn't take much thought to figure out why congress is pandering to the ethanol lobby. States like IO, MN, WI, NE, KS and others are always in play for elections.

Our dominance as the world's grain producer was surrendered over a decade ago to Brazil. They outproduce the US in corn, wheat, soybeans, orange juice, cattle, hogs, and just about every other food commodity you can think of.

I didn't realize that fact until I started trading commodities in the late 1990's, and found that I had to pay more attention to the weather in Brazil than in the US.

Yet our elected representatives are making us surrender our food to pay for their politicially-motivated subsidies of gasoline.

Consider that we're losing tens of thousands of acres of farmland in the midwest every year to home developers, and you've got a real recipe for a real crisis.

[Gewehr98]

Did you know that Corn-based ethanol is more expensive per joule of energy than gasoline, even with subsidies?

Put that in your fuel-cell and smoke it.

Sources, please. 

[The Rabbi]

Consider that we're losing tens of thousands of acres of farmland in the midwest every year to home developers, and you've got a real recipe for a real crisis.

Uh, oh.  It's the "limits to growth" argument updated.
Unfortunately also erroneous.  Most growth is taking place in the South and Southwest. The farmbelt has been a net loser of population.  There is no shortage of arable land, and no shortage of corn or the potential to grow it.
The problem in the US is too much food.  So burning it makes a lot of sense to me.

[Monkeyleg]

Rabbi, you're right about the farmbelt being a net loser of population.

But the population has been spread out, at least here in WI. Admittedly, my argument is a combination of articles I've read about the decrease in farmland, as well as anecdotal. Where a farm existed last year, I now see a new subdivision.

If the loss of farmland in WI, MI, MN and IL can be easily countered by increasing planted acreage in states like NE, IO, KS, and so on, then perhaps there's no problem.

If anyone has a link to a credible study on the effect of loss of farmland, I'd love to see it.

"The problem in the US is too much food.  So burning it makes a lot of sense to me."

Do you have mandated gasoline blends in Nashville? We do here in southeastern Wisconsin. The gas is more expensive than what's available in counties that don't have mandated blends, doesn't deliver as many miles per gallon, and mechanics tell me the mandated blends are harder are some engine components that plain gasoline. (I can tell you firsthand that the ME blend rots fuel system gaskets very quickly).

In the end, it just smells like plain old DC politics.

[Gewehr98]

Dick, not to throw a flyer into the group, but have you compared Wisconsin gasoline prices to those of neighboring states?  The addition of 10% corn squeezin's ain't what's driving up the cost of motor fuel in our neck of the woods.  Think "distance from refinery".  Not only that, but two of the nearest refineries had to either shut down or throttle back production a week or so ago:

http://www.wisconsinrapidstribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070712/GPG03/707120552/1812/WRT010301&theme=GPGGASPRICES

[Monkeyleg]

"Think "distance from refinery". "

Yep. And what additional cost is tacked on for our boutique gasoline blends?

Anything I know about our WI Starbucks gasoline blends goes back to when the whole ethanol/methanol argument started. So, what I know may be well out of date.

If so, then forgive me my ignorance.

But I can't conceive of a market situation in which Exxon can deliver plain old gas to Jefferson County, but have to go through extra gyrations to deliver Starbucks gasoline to Milwaukee county, and not have to charge extra for the additional expenses.

[The Rabbi]

I am not arguing ethanol is a great idea.  The only thing I like to fuel ethanol with is me.

[charby]

Also gasohol is not a new thing, we have had 10% ethanol fuel here in Iowa for as long as I can remember. I remember my dad saying something about it in 1978.

Also the whole ethanol plant build up is not a new thing, it happened in the 1970's here in Iowa, I remember as a kid driving past a few of them and how bad they stink.

Give it ten years and there will be a lot of vacant ethanol plants sitting around, Ag land prices will have crashed and it will be the early 1980's all over again.

-C

[Gewehr98]

That's why I'm amused that people are fighting the ethanol move now.  I remember gasohol from the 1970s, which nicely coincides with the Arab Oil Embargo, long lines at gas pumps, and the move away from ass-wagons and towards fuel-efficient vehicles. Not that I'd want a Ford Pinto now, but the worm had indeed turned.

How soon we forget, and it's deja vu all over again.

We keep pissing off the folks who don't like us much to begin with, and:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

[charby]

I'm not fighting the move, I think that we can use something other than corn or sugar cane to produce ethanol, Plus I think we have a better future in bio-diesel than ethanol.

I don't corn or sugar cane because of the high inputs needed to produce a crop. Both require a lot of hydrocarbon based fertilizer to produce the crops we need to make all this ethanol.

Also as we wean off of petroleum based fuels we are going to have learn to slow our lives down a bit. For example jet fuel packs a lot energy for its volume and weight, hence why I can leave Chicago and be in Frankfort, Germany in about 8 hours. I can't think of any bio fuel that can do that, so we might have use prop planes for trans continental travel which will extend flight time, perhaps we go back to ocean liners and extend the trip up to a week to cross the Atlantic Ocean.

[Gewehr98]

Don't sweat that aspect. Turbine engines (turbojets, turbofans, turboprops, turboshafts) are unbelievably versatile powerplants.  They will run on darned near any combustible fuel that can be injected into the burner cans, including powdered coal.  Commercial Jet-A1 and military JP-8 is in reality a type of kerosene, and the military has no problems fueling its diesel vehicles with JP-8 when normal diesel is unavailable. Biodiesel or purified straight vegetable oil would work just fine in a jet/turbine engine, as long as you pay attention to mixing in the right type and amount of gumming, icing, and corrosion inhibitors. 

Just, for Gawd's sake, don't make biodiesel from corn. Use Soylent Green or something folks won't get their panties in a wad over.      

[charby]

Don't sweat that aspect. Turbine engines (turbojets, turbofans, turboprops, turboshafts) are unbelievably versatile powerplants.  They will run on darned near any combustible fuel that can be injected into the burner cans, including powdered coal.  Commercial Jet-A1 and military JP-8 is in reality a type of kerosene, and the military has no problems fueling its diesel vehicles with JP-8 when normal diesel is unavailable. Biodiesel or purified straight vegetable oil would work just fine in a jet/turbine engine, as long as you pay attention to mixing in the right type and amount of gumming, icing, and corrosion inhibitors. 

Just, for Gawd's sake, don't make biodiesel from corn. Use Soylent Green or something folks won't get their panties in a wad over.      

I was thinking dead baby kitties... 

[Bogie]

A naturally growing fuel is a good thing.
 
I think we need to do as much with biodiesel... Think soybeans, folks... Or anything else we can stuff into a reactor vessel...

I suspect that our love of "high horsepower fast starts" is gonna be gone in a few years - because vehicles aren't gonna be capable of zero to sixty times like we're used to.

Think of your transportation as transportation, and not as a competitive status symbol - that's the first step.
 

[charby]

 
I think we need to do as much with biodiesel... Think soybeans, folks... Or anything else we can stuff into a reactor vessel...

I'm thinking algae or bacteria.. projections are like 1000's gallons of bio diesel per acre, unlike soybeans which is under 50 gallons an acre.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel

[Gewehr98]

I dunno, Bogie.

I think we need to do as much with biodiesel... Think soybeans, folks... Or anything else we can stuff into a reactor vessel...

Imagine the outcry from the Mexican tofu eaters.  There would be much weeping and gnashing of teeth. 

As for this:

I suspect that our love of "high horsepower fast starts" is gonna be gone in a few years - because vehicles aren't gonna be capable of zero to sixty times like we're used to.

Think of your transportation as transportation, and not as a competitive status symbol - that's the first step.

Very nicely stated.  Sadly, we Americans are somewhat allergic to public transportation, especially in the more wide-open places.  Madison has designs on a light rail system, and I see it going nowhere.

Of course, I almost got creamed at lunchtime today by a mommy (sans peripheral vision, cellphone firmly attached) in her Asscillade, packed full of little screaming crotchfruits, enroute to Jimmy John's.  I was thinking "What an excellent source of Extra Virgin Soylent Green biodiesel, right there, in one tidy little Cadillac package, ready for rendering and processing".  I reached for the lights and then just let it go, because I was hungry, the line in Jimmy John's wasn't getting any shorter, and I didn't feel like doing the paperwork. 

[Marnoot]

Sadly, we Americans are somewhat allergic to public transportation, especially in the more wide-open places.

I would consider public transportation were it a viable alternative. As it is where I live, I can drive myself to and from work, spending a total of 20-30 minutes/day in the car. Or I can take the bus, including one transfer, spending 1.5-2 hours/day in or walking to/from a bus. The only time I even consider public transit is if my car's in the shop, or I'm heading downtown for a leisurely day/evening.

Mass transit really only becomes viable as a means of transit for most people when population density passes a certain mark. In suburban and smaller urban areas, a car is just orders of magnitude more convenient and fast and you'll never get appreciable numbers of people to switch unless they both live and work within a reasonable distance of a bus/train stop. In dense urban areas like New York driving your own car is inconvenient, leading to most people using mass transit.

[Manedwolf]

Sadly, we Americans are somewhat allergic to public transportation, especially in the more wide-open places.

Public transportation in many areas is the suspicious-looking people whom you'd go out of your way to avoid on the street...now sitting right next to you in an enclosed, moving vehicle. In places like Boston, you just might be sitting next to the guy the street gang just came onto the bus to execute. (which just happened recently in Boston...several times. Broad daylight bus shootings) Not to mention the fact that if someone is sick and contagious, now everyone is sick. And, of course, there's always the increased possibility of terrorists blowing themselves up amid a captive audience. Buses seem to burn really well and quickly, and trains in tunnels become traps.

Not my idea of ideal. I like being in my own private vehicle, climate controlled, with my music. I work for the money to afford that, I pay taxes for the roads, it's my right as a result. And I do not wish to pay taxes to subsidize public cattlecars I have no desire to use.

And if we really want to get serious about a long term fuel source, we ought to be looking into gas hydrate "mining" from the Gulf of Mexico. There's hundreds of years worth down there.

[Gewehr98]

There you have it.

Public transportation in many areas is the suspicious-looking people whom you'd go out of your way to avoid on the street...now sitting right next to you in an enclosed, moving vehicle.

Not my idea of ideal. I like being in my own private vehicle, climate controlled, with my music. I work for the money to afford that, I pay taxes for the roads, it's my right as a result. And I do not wish to pay taxes to subsidize public cattlecars I have no desire to use.

America in a nutshell.  "I got mine, screw y'all, we got dogs and Valvoline, it's a pretty damned good time..."

Later on, out of the mouths of babes, "Holy Crap!  Where did the cheap gas go? I have a Tahoe to feed, damnit!" 

Suspicious-looking people? Like the ones in the car right next to me now, license plate buzzing from the tubthumper subwoofers in the trunk?    (Bet they don't know about the new decibel ordinance, this could get fun real quick)

I spent a lot of time in San Francisco on weekends, and used the Sacramento Light Rail to go from my house to Old Sac.  Cable cars or Light Rail, it was fun, and I was never in fear for my life at any given time.  Were I to go back to work for the Agency in D.C., I'd definitely make use of public transit. YMMV, of course. 

[Thor]

During my many trips abroad, I found the mass transportation overseas very accommodating. Taxis were everywhere and not all that expensive. Busses and trains were ample and had decent schedules. By far, Hong Kong was the best, with Japan not far behind. One can't find that here in the US except in the highly populated metro areas. I can't get from my house in Ramsey, MN to Minneapolis except for a commuter bus. It's schedule is only set up for those that work the standard day shift and it's primarily to and from work only. Taxi cabs exist, but are prohibitively expensive and take a long wait for them even to arrive. There's talk of a light rail coming through town, but I'm pretty sure it'll be a few years in the coming. The light rail in Minneapolis is already operating at an annual net loss of $13 MILLION/ year and there's NO sign of it ever even breaking even. 

All in all, I'd like to see some form of alternative energy happen, but I'd prefer to keep government subsidies out of the equation. I DO have to ask, what ever happened to that massive oil field find in the Gulf of Mexico that we were supposed to start drilling?? I had read that there was enough oil there to keep us going on fossil fuels for many generations.

[Manedwolf]

Suspicious-looking people? Like the ones in the car right next to me now, license plate buzzing from the tubthumper subwoofers in the trunk?

Ah, but they're not in YOUR car, are they. If it was public transit, they'd be in the same vehicle. So would the guy who keeps rocking back and forth and muttering about the second coming, the one that smells like a dumpster on a summer day, the one hacking up a lung with a cough that sounds like acute tuberculosis, and the groups of people wearing "colors" that keep glaring at each other and might or might not be illegally armed. If you're in a moving bus or train with them when they decide to go sideways-gangsta-shooting at each other...Where are you going to go?

And the D.C. Metro would make a fine radioactives or bioterror target. Spill anything that can be aerosol on the track, the suction draft of the passing trains would spread it through the entire system.

Also, personal vehicles are what make America egalitarian. Once upon a time, the rich had carriages and country homes, the rest of the city workers had to live in filth in the industrial cities and move about only with public transit. Now anyone can live in the country, work in the city and have their own "carriage".

I think that's a good thing.

And Thor, the people in those countries pay for that mass transit with REALLY HIGH TAXES. No thanks.

[Thor]

And Thor, the people in those countries pay for that mass transit with REALLY HIGH TAXES. No thanks.

I can't argue with you on that as I really never knew or paid attention to what the local populous paid in taxes. Most of time, it was cabs.

What I DO know is that in Minneapolis and St. Paul is that public transportation is starting to get dangerous, especially the light rail stations.