Decline and the next dark age?

[drewtam]

http://youtu.be/m8PlzDgFQMM

“‘Daddy, is it really true that people used to fly to the Moon when you were a boy?’ It shook me, because that’s how a Dark Age begins.”


Glenn Reynolds links to that youtube Ted talk, and XKCD has a coincidental thought on the same topic. It concerns me that this is how a new dark age begins. Conversely, decline is a choice. In 10years the US and world may face a major crisis. I hope we are able to face my generations' challenges with success.

The Ted talk speak has optimism. And I never realised that rocket economics were so much closer than what I have been told all my life. One more reinforcement to not believe the conventional wisdom until I see the data.

[RocketMan]

Ten years?  I think it's a lot closer than that.  Maybe two years.

[Perd Hapley]

Ten years?  I think it's a lot closer than that.  Maybe two years.

But 2012 is next year. And Harold Camping said we only have another couple of weeks, anyway.

[RocketMan]

Hmmm...I forgot about the Camping guy and the Mayans.

[RevDisk]

The Ted talk speak has optimism. And I never realised that rocket economics were so much closer than what I have been told all my life. One more reinforcement to not believe the conventional wisdom until I see the data.

SpaceX and other US corporations are humanity's best hope at survival.  On the long time scale, we have two choices as a species.  Spread out across the solar system (and eventually universe), or become extinct. 

NASA has thrown in the towel on space.  They're still consuming billions, but the results are now limited to very low end robots.  Most of our space probes of the last decade could be built by college students while intoxicated.  I know this, because I was one of those drunken college students dorking with robots.  Don't get me wrong, sending robots ahead of humans is very smart as well as cost efficient.  But you know NASA isn't planning any steps after sending the cheap disposable robots.

On the plus side, we have US citizens taking the step forward.  It's in its infancy, but even at its current stage, US citizens have a more significant orbital capacity than 95% of the countries on the planet.  I remarked to MicroBalrog that US satellite radio companies have more of a space presence than his country, which is allegedly quite advanced.


I do not have faith in the US government reaching the stars.  I do have faith in the American people at least putting boots (and drills) on the ground of the Moon, Mars, the belt, Io, and who knows what else.

The idiots are screaming about depleting the world's natural resources.  Actual AMERICANS are saying, "Hey, dude?  Titan has a couple hundred times the amount of liquid hydrocarbons of the entire planet..."   I look forward to the day when Exxon-Mobile is launching insanely giant tanks of oil back at the earth from the other side of the solar system.  It's called a bloody ion drive.  Sure, it takes a while, but that's the point of logistic pipelines.  Doesn't matter if it takes six months or a year for the oil to arrive via ion drives or whatever, if you have a delivery every two weeks. 

[Perd Hapley]

 I look forward to the day when Exxon-Mobile is launching insanely giant tanks of oil back at the earth from the other side of the solar system. 

The more I think about this idea, the more I love it. Once we get one of those on the way, just have it leak all its oil somewhere along the way. Then launch the shuttle-loads of enviro-weenies with their reams of paper towels, to soak it all up.

[zahc]

Space will never happen. Our species is not physically capable of leaving the planet. It's nothing but science fiction. Everything is too far away. So far away it might as well not be there.

[Tallpine]

Space will never happen. Our species is not physically capable of leaving the planet. It's nothing but science fiction. Everything is too far away. So far away it might as well not be there.

That's what they said to Columbus 

[zahc]

Except that what Columbus did was physically possible.

[PTK]

Well, if leaving the planet is impossible, I submit that we, as a species, self-destruct post haste. It'll happen anyway from some extra-Earth-based disaster, all our eggs in one basket and all...



Truly and utterly believing that humans will never leave Earth is not only foolish, but extraordinarily short sighted. 

[MicroBalrog]

Space will never happen. Our species is not physically capable of leaving the planet. It's nothing but science fiction. Everything is too far away. So far away it might as well not be there.

[AJ Dual]

Space will never happen. Our species is not physically capable of leaving the planet. It's nothing but science fiction. Everything is too far away. So far away it might as well not be there.

Huh?

Astronauts have lived on MIR and the ISS more than long enough to reach anything in cislunar space, Mars, or the Asteroid belt at least. And we've had the tech to do it since the 1970's. It's been an economic and political problem only.

[kgbsquirrel]

Except that what Columbus did was physically possible.

And yet what Columbus did was not physically possible only a few centuries before, because the ship technology had not yet advanced far enough to permit direct transoceanic crossings. Why do you find it inconceivable that space craft technology will never advance to the point of allowing interstellar travel?



The Earth is flat.

The Sun and planets revolve around us.

Everything that can be invented, has.

Human flight is a fantasy.

It is impossible to exceed the speed of sound.

Man will never walk on the moon.

Interstellar travel is impossible.

[brimic]

And yet what Columbus did was not physically possible only a few centuries before, because the ship technology had not yet advanced far enough to permit direct transoceanic crossings.

Well with the exceptions of the vikings and the Chinese, but overall your point still stands.

[AJ Dual]

The biggest thing of course that makes spaceflight a fantasy is that there's nothing in a vacuum to push off of up there.

[RoadKingLarry]

Except that what Columbus did was physically possible.

Exploration of space is physically impossible.
Much as it was once physically impossible for man to travel faster than 60 MPH.
Much as it was once physically impossible for man to fly.

Technology, it's what's next.

And yet what Columbus did was not physically possible only a few centuries before, because the European ship technology had not yet advanced far enough to permit direct transoceanic crossings.

There is enough evidence to consitute reasonable proof that other cultures were capabale of and engaging in transoceanic voyages centuries before Columbus.

Well with the exceptions of the vikings and the Chinese, but overall your point still stands.

as well as Polynesians and possibly Egyptians

[Perd Hapley]

The biggest thing of course that makes spaceflight a fantasy is that there's nothing in a vacuum to push off of up there.

Ether.

[kgbsquirrel]

Well with the exceptions of the vikings and the Chinese, but overall your point still stands.

Yeah, that's why I said direct transoceanic crossings.  

Going straight from Spain to the Caribbean takes a much higher endurance craft than the Ireland-Iceland hop, just like it is going to take a much higher endurance craft to do an Earth to Mars hop, rather than just Earth to Moon.


ETA:

And yet what Columbus did was not physically possible only a few centuries before, because the European ship technology had not yet advanced far enough to permit direct transoceanic crossings.

There is enough evidence to consitute reasonable proof that other cultures were capabale of and engaging in transoceanic voyages centuries before Columbus.

I'll concede that, but off the top of my head I can't recall any others that did direct long-haul oceanic crossings (driving straight across the main bulk of the Atlantic or Pacific). I seem to recall most of them either coast hugging or doing short hops, such as China/Japan, Iceland/Ireland, Transmediterranean.

[PTK]

The biggest thing of course that makes spaceflight a fantasy is that there's nothing in a vacuum to push off of up there.

Ether.

I think you mean... "aether".


And anyway, I'm pretty sure Einstein did away with the Newtonian concept of aether.

[Jim147]

You need very little to push away from nothing.

And who needs to push if your being pulled.

jim

[MicroBalrog]

Space will never happen. Our species is not physically capable of leaving the planet.

[erictank]

Space will never happen. Our species is not physically capable of leaving the planet. It's nothing but science fiction. Everything is too far away. So far away it might as well not be there.

So, what - they faked the Moon landing?

Not buyin' it.  We *CAN* do it - we CAN get off this rock.  The only question is, WILL we.

We, as a species, have done things firmly understood to be impossible by our fathers and grandfathers.  Today, we TAKE FOR GRANTED things which would have been impossible 40 years ago.

All we need to do is decide to make it happen.

[AJ Dual]

Ether.

I think you mean... "aether".


And anyway, I'm pretty sure Einstein did away with the Newtonian concept of aether.

Well, there is the quantum field, the Higgs Boson etc. Perhaps someone could come up with a "Planck Grapple".

[PTK]

You need to write that down somewhere.

[SteveT]

Except that what Columbus did was physically possible.

He's right.   So what if a small spaceship could get to Mars in 3 years.    It's a worthless desert.