Author Topic: Decline and the next dark age?  (Read 52803 times)

gunsmith

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #150 on: June 12, 2011, 02:08:31 PM »
you see there is a comet and if we all wear the same sneakers and cut our hair like spock we can ride the secret spaceship behind the comet here just take this drink here it taste a little funny not funny like hahah more like funny boohoo
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makattak

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #151 on: June 12, 2011, 03:52:17 PM »
So hands up... Who expects hyperinflation or just very high inflation(70-80% a year) in the US by 2018 or so?

Nope. Either the country will recover or we will have our Argentina moment before that. We don't have until 2018.

That's why I refuse to vote for some milquetoast Republican next fall. If we have a RINO, I will vote third party or write-in.
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Lanius

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #152 on: June 12, 2011, 06:52:58 PM »
you see there is a comet and if we all wear the same sneakers and cut our hair like spock we can ride the secret spaceship behind the comet here just take this drink here it taste a little funny not funny like hahah more like funny boohoo
Hmm.. you forgot to add that you need to cut off your own balls to ride that spaceship.. that sect was into castration too..  =D

RevDisk

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #153 on: July 02, 2011, 12:54:10 PM »
That people even thought nurture is most important completely boggles me.

Blank slate my arse. Too bad I can't go back in time to gloat over how completely wrong they were...



There are four components.    Nature, nurture, free will and a degree of randomness.

In my opinion, free will is the most important and least used component.   Nature provides mostly predisposition.   The default choice when not overruled by environment or science.   Nurture is the secondary default.   

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henschman

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #154 on: July 02, 2011, 04:26:55 PM »
Unfortunately, I don't think the kind of post-human and interstellar technologies being discussed in this thread are going to develop anytime soon, and certainly not in our lifetimes.  I believe that this type of advancement of civilization could only be possible in a free society, yet humanity seems to currently be stuck in the rut of the Administrative/Welfare/Warfare State, and it seems to be a rut we are driving into ever more feverishly as a species.  I believe that as individual liberty decreases and collectivism increases, we can at least expect a great slow-down, if not a downright stop or regression, in the advancement of technology, standard of living, and civilization.  Make no mistake... we are being robbed of our future by the statists.

"Capitalism is the future -- if mankind is to have a future." 

-- Ayn Rand
“Of liberty I would say that, in the whole plenitude of its extent, it is unobstructed action according to our will. But rightful liberty is unobstructed action according to our will within limits drawn around us by the equal rights of others. I do not add 'within the limits of the law,' because law is often but the tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the right of an individual.”
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birdman

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #155 on: July 02, 2011, 07:06:50 PM »
Unfortunately, I don't think the kind of post-human and interstellar technologies being discussed in this thread are going to develop anytime soon, and certainly not in our lifetimes.  I believe that this type of advancement of civilization could only be possible in a free society, yet humanity seems to currently be stuck in the rut of the Administrative/Welfare/Warfare State, and it seems to be a rut we are driving into ever more feverishly as a species.  I believe that as individual liberty decreases and collectivism increases, we can at least expect a great slow-down, if not a downright stop or regression, in the advancement of technology, standard of living, and civilization.  Make no mistake... we are being robbed of our future by the statists.

"Capitalism is the future -- if mankind is to have a future." 

-- Ayn Rand

Read "the disinherited" (Steve white I think)...I won't spoil it, but at least in the book we got to the "close to interstellar travel" point before the satists wrecked everything....I don't think we are going to be that lucky.

henschman

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #156 on: July 04, 2011, 04:38:14 AM »
Read "the disinherited" (Steve white I think)...I won't spoil it, but at least in the book we got to the "close to interstellar travel" point before the satists wrecked everything....I don't think we are going to be that lucky.

Thanks, sounds interesting.  

In our fiction about extraterrestrials, a common theme is a concern about an alien race who shows up and tries to eradicate humanity.  Seeing how any civilization who develops interstellar travel is likely to be a free society based on the recognition of mutual liberty, I think we should be more worried about making humanity a race that is worthy of NOT being eradicated.  I'm afraid that if extraterrestrials had been watching us up until now, they might come to the conclusion that the human race is incapable of recognizing the liberty of others, and are not worthy of having their lives or liberties recognized... much like animals.  

I was just complaining in another thread on "Falling Skies" how over-done the alien attack thing is.  Fresh takes on that plot are rare ("District 9" was a good one though).  But libertarian post-organic interstellar aliens... now THAT could make for an interesting plot!
“Of liberty I would say that, in the whole plenitude of its extent, it is unobstructed action according to our will. But rightful liberty is unobstructed action according to our will within limits drawn around us by the equal rights of others. I do not add 'within the limits of the law,' because law is often but the tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the right of an individual.”
-- Thomas Jefferson

Perd Hapley

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #157 on: July 04, 2011, 11:54:19 AM »
In our fiction about extraterrestrials, a common theme is a concern about an alien race who shows up and tries to eradicate humanity.  Seeing how any civilization who develops interstellar travel is likely to be a free society based on the recognition of mutual liberty, I think we should be more worried about making humanity a race that is worthy of NOT being eradicated.  I'm afraid that if extraterrestrials had been watching us up until now, they might come to the conclusion that the human race is incapable of recognizing the liberty of others, and are not worthy of having their lives or liberties recognized... much like animals.  


That would be only a slight variation on the common sci-fi meme that has aliens judging humanity for our warlike ways, or our ecological sins. See The Day the Earth Stood Still.


Quote
Seeing how any civilization who develops interstellar travel is likely to be a free society based on the recognition of mutual liberty...
But that love of liberty could easily fade, leading to a less free society, but inheriting all the technological and organizational advancement. This has a parallel in our own history. Also, history tells us of cultures that excelled technologically without such a respect for individual liberties. Nazi-era Germany and Soviet Russia, for example.
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MicroBalrog

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #158 on: July 04, 2011, 11:57:36 AM »
Soviet Russia did not really 'excel' technologically. It was a functional technological society, to be sure, but its rate of progress (with the exception of space travel) was far slower than that of the West. Several fields of study were neglected deliberately, and entire industries (including noodles production) were hobnobbed by low-quality production.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #159 on: July 04, 2011, 12:01:04 PM »
Obviously, free societies have an advantage. Still, the Soviets were not entirely without technological achievement. They did beat the U.S. into space, for example, and fielded an assault rifle very early-on. The Germans of the Nazi era were also ahead on the assault rifle concept, and in jet propulsion. And weren't they close behind us in the nuclear field?
« Last Edit: July 04, 2011, 12:27:12 PM by The artist formerly known as fistful »
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birdman

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #160 on: July 04, 2011, 12:49:28 PM »
Obviously, free societies have an advantage. Still, the Soviets were not entirely without technological achievement. They did beat the U.S. into space, for example, and fielded an assault rifle very early-on. The Germans of the Nazi era were also ahead on the assault rifle concept, and in jet propulsion. And weren't they close behind us in the nuclear field?

Not really, while they had the fundamentals of nuclear weapons/power, they were going down quite a few dead ends, and had no where near the resources to pull it off.  The sheer scale of the construction required for the manhattan project (oak ridge in particular) was beyond what anyone other than the US could do during the war.

roo_ster

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #161 on: July 04, 2011, 02:38:24 PM »
In our fiction about extraterrestrials, a common theme is a concern about an alien race who shows up and tries to eradicate humanity.  Seeing how any civilization who develops interstellar travel is likely to be a free society based on the recognition of mutual liberty, I think we should be more worried about making humanity a race that is worthy of NOT being eradicated.  

Dude, you are letting ideology get in the way of any logic, science, or history training you might have.

RAH wrote some good scifi, but we have to recall the "fiction" part of "science-fiction" is very important.

Assuming:
1. A materialist conception of reality
2. A race of critters who can travel between the stars

They will have had pressures similar to ours developing from single-celled critter to star-hoppers.  Meaning, that violence and conflict was and is key to their survival and development.  The take-away here is that races that travel between the stars will be A#1, top dog perpetrators of violence WRT intra-and inter-species conflict.  The will have won the competition for scarce resources not only on their planet of origin, but on other planets as well.

And then they find us.

From an historical perspective, there are puh-lenty of examples where the less-liberty-loving competitor won over the more-liberty-loving competitor:
* Nazi Germany vs France (& most of W Europe before the UAS got in)
* Sparta vs Athens
* Bolsheviks vs Russian Provisional Gov't
* etc. etc.

Hey, your contention is possible, but it is hardly the only possibility and is not necessarily more likely.


Regards,

roo_ster

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Antibubba

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #162 on: July 04, 2011, 06:50:06 PM »
Quote from: roo_ster
1. A materialist conception of reality
2. A race of critters who can travel between the stars

They will have had pressures similar to ours developing from single-celled critter to star-hoppers.  Meaning, that violence and conflict was and is key to their survival and development.  The take-away here is that races that travel between the stars will be A#1, top dog perpetrators of violence WRT intra-and inter-species conflict.  The will have won the competition for scarce resources not only on their planet of origin, but on other planets as well.

And then they find us.

To make ANY assumptions about how an alien intelligence will proceed is folly.  While it is a good mental exercise to do so, it is dangerous to believe any of them is more likely than others.

For example, once a race gets to space they might discover that the material resources they have access to are more plentiful than they can reasonably use.  The competitive drive may eventually pass.  Or the material needs may change.  Or we may be completely unable to comprehend what their needs are.

We may have more in common with scorpions and spiders than with an alien intelligence.
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roo_ster

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #163 on: July 04, 2011, 11:02:58 PM »
To make ANY assumptions about how an alien intelligence will proceed is folly.  While it is a good mental exercise to do so, it is dangerous to believe any of them is more likely than others.

For example, once a race gets to space they might discover that the material resources they have access to are more plentiful than they can reasonably use.  The competitive drive may eventually pass.  Or the material needs may change.  Or we may be completely unable to comprehend what their needs are.

We may have more in common with scorpions and spiders than with an alien intelligence.

Meh, I think otherwise.  We'd both have to confront the same physics & chemistry problems (only some of the constants or proportions would change).  Granted, that does not mean we'd have identical answers, but we'd both have to develop a problem-solving way of thinking about the universe.
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roo_ster

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henschman

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #164 on: July 05, 2011, 01:15:06 AM »
Sure, brute force frequently wins out over liberty, but it usually does not lead to great advancements in technology.  Our history shows that the freer the society, the greater the technological advancement.  I surmise that if a civilization developed so highly so as to discover interstellar travel, they are much more likely to be individualists who recognize each other's mutual liberty, as opposed to a bunch of self-sacrificial collectivists. 
“Of liberty I would say that, in the whole plenitude of its extent, it is unobstructed action according to our will. But rightful liberty is unobstructed action according to our will within limits drawn around us by the equal rights of others. I do not add 'within the limits of the law,' because law is often but the tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the right of an individual.”
-- Thomas Jefferson

MicroBalrog

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #165 on: July 05, 2011, 02:28:19 AM »
Sure, brute force frequently wins out over liberty, but it usually does not lead to great advancements in technology.  Our history shows that the freer the society, the greater the technological advancement.  I surmise that if a civilization developed so highly so as to discover interstellar travel, they are much more likely to be individualists who recognize each other's mutual liberty, as opposed to a bunch of self-sacrificial collectivists. 

Absolutely unnecessary.

I love your argument, but two problems:

1. Imagine, if you can, a totalitarian society advancing at a slow rate. They'd still get there, just slower.

2. Individualism works for humanity for specific biological and psychological reasons. These may not necessarily apply to an alien intelligence.
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RevDisk

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #166 on: July 07, 2011, 01:09:40 AM »
Sure, brute force frequently wins out over liberty, but it usually does not lead to great advancements in technology.  Our history shows that the freer the society, the greater the technological advancement.  I surmise that if a civilization developed so highly so as to discover interstellar travel, they are much more likely to be individualists who recognize each other's mutual liberty, as opposed to a bunch of self-sacrificial collectivists. 

That works until you have a hive like alien culture.  Then not so much on the mutual liberty, and much on the "you humans are the new drones.  Or dead.  Either works"

 =D
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #167 on: July 07, 2011, 01:32:35 AM »
Sure, brute force frequently wins out over liberty, but it usually does not lead to great advancements in technology.  Our history shows that the freer the society, the greater the technological advancement.  I surmise that if a civilization developed so highly so as to discover interstellar travel, they are much more likely to be individualists who recognize each other's mutual liberty, as opposed to a bunch of self-sacrificial collectivists. 

But it's entirely possible that a liberty-loving, individualistic, tech-developing society could turn in to an imperialistic, militantly expansionist, Earthling-squashing society; but with the same technology. That takes most of the wind out our your supposition.  =|
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Balog

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #168 on: July 07, 2011, 01:45:24 AM »
But it's entirely possible that a liberty-loving, individualistic, tech-developing society could turn in to an imperialistic, militantly expansionist, Earthling-squashing society; but with the same technology. That takes most of the wind out our your supposition.  =|

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MicroBalrog

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #169 on: July 07, 2011, 05:06:03 AM »
Henschman, do you know what the PK-3000 was?

It was an insterstellar-capable spacecraft actually designed by Soviet engineers under Saharov (this should give you hints as to how it was supposed to operate). Both the USSR and the US designed spacecraft that, if needed, could be used to introduce exploratory interstellar and routine intra-system planet. Some of these spacecraft and propulsion systems were actually tested successfully, but construction was shut down for political, not technical, reasons.

I can fully imagine an Alien-Brezhnev in an Alien-USSR that would sign off on the building on a PK-3000 or identical technology in their version of the 1960's.
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birdman

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Re: Decline and the next dark age?
« Reply #170 on: July 07, 2011, 07:54:36 AM »
Henschman, do you know what the PK-3000 was?

It was an insterstellar-capable spacecraft actually designed by Soviet engineers under Saharov Sakharov (this should give you hints as to how it was supposed to operate). Both the USSR and the US designed spacecraft that, if needed, could be used to introduce exploratory interstellar and routine intra-system planet. Some of these spacecraft and propulsion systems were actually tested successfully, but construction was shut down for political, not technical, reasons.

I can fully imagine an Alien-Brezhnev in an Alien-USSR that would sign off on the building on a PK-3000 or identical technology in their version of the 1960's.

Ah, the Russian "orionski".  For those that don't know, Sakharov was the father of the russian hydrogen bomb (the equivalent of teller (well, more accurately ulam, as ulam was the brains)), and advanced many areas of high energy applications.  I do believe the Orion concept was first formulated in the US (dyson I believe), and then by Sakharov.  Neither would be truly capable of interstellar (even primitive ~1% c) travel using 1960's tech, or even current (the yield to mass of the pulse units required (at the yield needed, we can achieve the requisite on much larger devices, but not on the 10-50kt size needed) devices, given the inert mass needed.  For a hardened unmanned ship, it's potentially possible to do primitive interstellar with current tech, but would be really difficult (and require effectively the same aggregate tonnage yield as our entire stockpile).  The politics involved that killed it on both sides was the nuclear weapons in space ban, and the discovery of HEMP, as it is relatively easy to determine that breaking orbit would cause major issues if not done conventionally, and thus nearly double the mass needed to be orbited.  After that, it was a question of funding...even a primitive unmanned system for 1% c woud cost several hundred billion dollars at least in today's currency--a non-starter.  When I was working interstellar precursor for NASA, we were concentrating on compact long life fission reactors driving MPD or VASIMIR thrusters for early concepts, and (when I was working for rocketdyne advanced projects) a dense plasma focus fusion thruster, the latter which could give you 1-3%c in <5yr burn time, with a 10-20ton payload, and <200 tons launch mass...the goal was a program cost of <10-20 billion. (and 1/3rd of a light-year in 25 years). 
The technology to do so was at or slightly beyond state of the art (still is), so there are technological limits if one attempts to do such a mission within the confines of even theoretical funding (ie the entire NASA exploration budget).  To put in perspective, that DPF thruster system I designed produced nearly 20-50 MEGAWATTS of hard x-rays from the thruster, and in order to keep it from melting (it was a 2-3 gigawatt thruster about the size of a gallon jug), we needed 100kg of liquid hydrogen PER SECOND just for cooling the thruster and x-ray shield.  While we had detailed plans on how to build it (I'm quite proud of my pulse power system I designed for it), it was (and still is) low TRL.

So...anyone have a few 10's of billions?  I want to send stuff to the stars!