Decline and the next dark age?

[brimic]

So what if a small spaceship could get to Mars in 3 years.    It's a worthless desert.   

So is much of the Middle East and Northern Africa, yet there are a lot of wars fought over these lands.

[SteveT]

So is much of the Middle East and Northern Africa, yet there are a lot of wars fought over these lands.

1) there's oil underneath those places.

2) from the closest places in the USA it's 9,000 x the distance to Mars.

[RoadKingLarry]

He's right.   So what if a small spaceship could get to Mars in 3 years.    It's a worthless desert.   

We've directly explored a protion of the surface less than a square mile in area with rovers.
Good call, let's go home.

[RocketMan]

For the US to do all of these cool things in space requires that we have a functioning economy.  Our economy is on life support.  A code blue has been sounded and the paddles are out.

Put another way, we are speeding toward an economic precipice, and there is absolutely no sign that we will avoid going over.

edit for speelign

[HankB]

Just imagine three things for a moment . . .

1. NASA was still run by visionaries rather than political brown-noses more concerned with diversity hiring than space exploration;

2. Our poltical leaders were serious about NASA's success, rather than viewing it as a vessel to funnel taxpayer money to their own home districts;

3. Rather than throwing trillions away on "Great Society" programs, we'd put half of it into space exploration, and simply not spent the rest.

Something close to the scenarios in the movies 2001 and the sequel, 2010, would probably be reality. (Minus the alien monolith stuff, of course.) Our economy would be healthier, technology would be further advanced thanks to spinoffs . . . we'd be better off all around.

 * sigh *

Fat chance of getting the RIGHT people to run NASA, and still less chance of getting the RIGHT people in government . . . 

[brimic]

1) there's oil underneath those places.

2) from the closest places in the USA it's 9,000 x the distance to Mars.

My point exactly. It looks desolate on the surface, but there's a pretty good possibility that:
A: It can be habitable in a closed system- at least more so than any other place in our solar system.
B: There may be very rich resources under the surface.
C: It could be a jumping off point for exploration of planets/moons further out in our solar sytem.

[Tallpine]

He's right.   So what if a small spaceship could get to Mars in 3 years.    It's a worthless desert.   

Yeah, I remember something about the "Great American Desert" - just a place to cross to get to Oregon 


Actually, the asteroid belt is probably more of a lucrative destination.

[230RN]

Besides, the Martians already depleted all the oil up there.

[roo_ster]

SpaceX and other US corporations are humanity's best hope at survival.  On the long time scale, we have two choices as a species.  Spread out across the solar system (and eventually universe), or become extinct. 

Yep, it will happen and be done in the private sphere once someone figures out how to make money doing it.

NASA has thrown in the towel on space.  They're still consuming billions, but the results are now limited to very low end robots, Muslim outreach, and enviro-weenie make-work.

Ayup.

I see a possible course that can take us from where we are to a real economy in the solar system.  And make no mistake, it will be a free market system that makes it all possible.

OTOH, I see American and Western elite leadership types choosing decline out of self hatred.  People that won;t stand up to savages (pirates, militant islam, etc.) have no chance of advancing the culture beyond where the inertia of their forebears would have taken it anyways.

[roo_ster]

Well, there is the quantum field, the Higgs Boson etc. Perhaps someone could come up with a "Planck Grapple".

You want to spoon out Planck's brains and cook them up with eggs!?!?   

Oh, you wrote "grapple," not "scrapple."

[AZRedhawk44]

Yeah, I remember something about the "Great American Desert" - just a place to cross to get to Oregon  


Actually, the asteroid belt is probably more of a lucrative destination.

Any sizeable gravity well is merely an energy trap.

The asteroid belt offers all the resource benefits of a planet (aside from the hydrocarbons present on Io and other Jupiter/Saturn moons... which might even be present in the asteroid belt... who knows) without the energy drawbacks of a gravity well.  Metals to smelt, water-ice to collect, perhaps fissionable materials to power reactors.

The trick to humanity's survival past the bounds of our solar system lie in control of the hydrogen atom (which will be the 1 resource we can expect to find in sparse quantities in the desert of space between solar systems), and our ability to simulate some form of gravity or centripetal force in a large space habitat.

And the solar system is the training ground for that, with the asteroid belt being an excellent laboratory.

People that won;t stand up to savages (pirates, militant islam, etc.) have no chance of advancing the culture beyond where the inertia of their forebears would have taken it anyways.

Beautiful phrasing, very sad sentiment.

[MicroBalrog]

He's right.   So what if a small spaceship could get to Mars in 3 years.    It's a worthless desert.   

The lifting capacity of modern heavy lifters is such that we could lift the Pinta and the Nina to space in one go. And then there is Orion.

[Tallpine]

OTOH, I see American and Western elite leadership types choosing decline out of self hatred.  People that won;t stand up to savages (pirates, militant islam, etc.) have no chance of advancing the culture beyond where the inertia of their forebears would have taken it anyways.

Are you suggesting that the space explorers of the future will speak Chinese...?   

[Devonai]

Besides, the Martians already depleted all the oil up there.

Those jerks!

[AJ Dual]

Any sizeable gravity well is merely an energy trap.

The asteroid belt offers all the resource benefits of a planet (aside from the hydrocarbons present on Io and other Jupiter/Saturn moons... which might even be present in the asteroid belt... who knows) without the energy drawbacks of a gravity well.  Metals to smelt, water-ice to collect, perhaps fissionable materials to power reactors.

The trick to humanity's survival past the bounds of our solar system lie in control of the hydrogen atom (which will be the 1 resource we can expect to find in sparse quantities in the desert of space between solar systems), and our ability to simulate some form of gravity or centripetal force in a large space habitat.

And the solar system is the training ground for that, with the asteroid belt being an excellent laboratory.

Beautiful phrasing, very sad sentiment.

"Hydrogen, is an element, that given gravity, and sufficient time, turns into stars, planets, and eventually people."

And there probably is a fair amount of low grav-well hydrocarbons out there, all the comet nuclei we've observed up close with probes are absolutely filthy with dirt, carbon, and various hydrocarbon sludges. And of course Titan has a pretty low gravity well, and the Saturn moon system has a reasonable escape velocity, much better than Jupiter's.

One way of explaining the desirability of whatever resources you want in terms of gravity wells is like making real-estate analogies.

Earth is like the absolute best parcel of land, rich black dirt, a nice stream and a pond, and a mountain view... stuck in the middle of nowhere Siberia, or Saskatchewan or whatnot.

An asteroid or the moon, with it's cheap transport costs is like an acre of bare concrete, or a brown-field full of weeds, busted bottles, and used rubbers... located in the middle of Manhattan, Paris, or downtown Tokyo. It's not all about the resources, it's about the gravity, and that makes it like real estate. Location, location, location.

[AZRedhawk44]

One other thing that comes to mind though....


There are 6 billion people on Earth.

If we expand to the moon and Mars and other suitable gravity wells over the next several hundred or thousand years... there could be as many as 100 billion of us.  Or more.  Who knows.

But there isn't enough fuel and materials to build interstellar spacecraft to move 6 billion, or 100 billion, people out of the solar system.

At some point, when our Solar System becomes uninhabitable or we consume all its resources, most of humanity will die in Sol's gravity well while a fraction of a fraction of a percent escapes in search of a new home.

How many resources are available, to build how many interstellar ships on a 100 year multigenerational journey to a new viable and young solar system?  How many people do you think such a fleet could carry, using only resources in our solar system?

[HankB]

. . . At some point, when our Solar System becomes uninhabitable or we consume all its resources, most of humanity will die in Sol's gravity well while a fraction of a fraction of a percent escapes in search of a new home. . . .

A fraction of a percent is better than none.

Even if (when?) we start exploiting the rest of the solar system, we're not going to run out of recoverable resources for thousands of years. Who can say what technology we'll develop?

If we don't snuff ourselves out, today's science fiction will eventually seem downright antiquated.

[AJ Dual]

One other thing that comes to mind though....


There are 6 billion people on Earth.

If we expand to the moon and Mars and other suitable gravity wells over the next several hundred or thousand years... there could be as many as 100 billion of us.  Or more.  Who knows.

But there isn't enough fuel and materials to build interstellar spacecraft to move 6 billion, or 100 billion, people out of the solar system.

At some point, when our Solar System becomes uninhabitable or we consume all its resources, most of humanity will die in Sol's gravity well while a fraction of a fraction of a percent escapes in search of a new home.

How many resources are available, to build how many interstellar ships on a 100 year multigenerational journey to a new viable and young solar system?  How many people do you think such a fleet could carry, using only resources in our solar system?

I strongly suspect that many people will be post-human at that point, and a trillion of us could catch a ride on a space craft the size of a beer can shot out from the Solar System by a mass driver, or using a solar sail and laser etc.

Also, when you don't care about, or need earth-type worlds, and you can build any kind of space habitat you want, or terraform planets for the "meat" contingent of the population at will, transport logistics are much easier. For all we know, star systems full of asteroids, comets, and gas giants may be much more preferable.

Those kind of questions are somewhat akin to worrying about "peak whale oil", or what to do with all the unemployed buggy-whip makers, or the worries of someone in 1984 tasked with moving a terrabyte of data on 5.25 floppy disks.

Honestly though, I suspect that any species that does "make it", evolves even beyond the need/desire to engage in even such grandiose things as interstellar colonization, at least in any fashion we can detect. If they didn't, we should see evidence of them or their machines by now. (the Galaxy has existed long enough for replicating Von Neuman probes/colonizers to have covered the galaxy several times over by now.)

I hold this as my own personal answer to the Fermi Paradox myself.

[roo_ster]

I suspect all these post-human energy-type beings will suicide purty quick from boredom.

Teh "life of the mind" is fine for some small portion of humans, but most need more.  And "life of the mind" is all you'll have at that point. 

I smell a conceit that those professing a post-human existence think they have the stuff to be the post-humans and not suicide in the vast subjective eternity of 3 seconds clock time. 

Besides, who is going to have the physical hands to launch the beer can into space?  So, we keep around a few humans to do the necessary physical manipulation...who can flip a switch and turn off the energy-type post-human energy creatures in a fit of pique.  Or put them in the beer-can launcher and then get distracted by a re-run of Idiocracy while all the post-humans are trapped for a subjective eternity in the beer can and then die as the beer can's power wanes.

[AJ Dual]

I suspect all these post-human energy-type beings will suicide purty quick from boredom.

Teh "life of the mind" is fine for some small portion of humans, but most need more.  And "life of the mind" is all you'll have at that point.  

I smell a conceit that those professing a post-human existence think they have the stuff to be the post-humans and not suicide in the vast subjective eternity of 3 seconds clock time.  

Besides, who is going to have the physical hands to launch the beer can into space?  So, we keep around a few humans to do the necessary physical manipulation...who can flip a switch and turn off the energy-type post-human energy creatures in a fit of pique.  Or put them in the beer-can launcher and then get distracted by a re-run of Idiocracy while all the post-humans are trapped for a subjective eternity in the beer can and then die as the beer can's power wanes.

Yah, like how society can't function at all, with millions of people with desk jobs, after a thousand years of living/working outside.  

And where is it written that being post-human means a 20th-12st century brain thrown into some sort of non-corporeal existence? Even if one was an "individual", they would more than likely be edited to tolerate it. Or just as likely, a "person" might be a hierarchy of intelligences and expert systems, just like how your knee does not get "bored" swinging your foot, or your visual cortex does not get "bored" just processing the input from your eyes all day.

For all I know, you could copy yourself, and edit the copy to have (for lack of better terms) suppressed or absent Id, Ego, and Super-Ego so it does not care that it's being sent on a mission 1000 years long or might not even come back, and the "original you" just goes to sleep to wait for your copy's return, all full of the juicy data and pretty pictures.

If such an existence is possible, we really don't have the tools to envision what it would be like, the challenge would be 1000 times harder than someone in the 1910's being tasked with describing the 2010's. But that also means we've no basis to guess that a "life of mind" would drive you to suicide, or to decide that you'd lived thousands/millions of perceived years at computer time rates etc. either.

Besides, who is going to have the physical hands to launch the beer can into space?  So, we keep around a few humans to do the necessary physical manipulation...who can flip a switch and turn off the energy-type post-human energy creatures in a fit of pique.  Or put them in the beer-can launcher and then get distracted by a re-run of Idiocracy while all the post-humans are trapped for a subjective eternity in the beer can and then die as the beer can's power wanes.

There's these cool things called robots. There might be some YouTube videos of them somewhere...

[just Warren]

God, I love the idea of Project Orion. If I were President I'd announce that I was thinking about re-funding it just so could I watch a large percentage of the population of Earth just go batchyme crazy.

[MicroBalrog]

Besides, who is going to have the physical hands to launch the beer can into space?  So, we keep around a few humans to do the necessary physical manipulation...who can flip a switch and turn off the energy-type post-human energy creatures in a fit of pique.  Or put them in the beer-can launcher and then get distracted by a re-run of Idiocracy while all the post-humans are trapped for a subjective eternity in the beer can and then die as the beer can's power wanes.

I'm far, far more interest in the (more realistic) physical transhumanism.

On-tap physical augmentation, available as easily as plastic surgery is today.

Direct-neural interface body armor - or having your brain transplanted entirely into a T-888 sort of body.

Oh, and something far more realistic and closer than you think: Actuarial. Escape. Velocity.

[AJ Dual]

Yes, all the "low hanging fruit" buys a person enough time to stick around for the bigger leaps, if they happen.

For instance, I've already had a borrowed 20 years, due to Tetracycline as treatment for a burst appendix. Without that, the odds of sepsis and death were quite high. Not to mention vaccines and all the other "basic" medical improvements. There's no one smoking gun that's dismissable as sci-fi, it's the slow steady progression.

[Tallpine]

Think about what humans might look like after several generations in micro-gravity...

You wouldn't need much muscle mass at all to function in such an environment.  Nutritional, water, and oxygen needs could be reduced dramatically.

Actually, there is no need for an adapted space-faring race to ever seek out another home planet, and indeed they could no longer live there if another earth-like planet is ever discovered.  They could and would wander among the planets, and later the stars, extracting resources from whatever small chunks they found floating around.  More habitats ("spaceships") could be made from raw materials processed with either solar or nuclear energy.

I'm not sure that I like the idea of what such a person would look like.  The odd thing is that it might not be far from the big-headed small-bodied aliens of fiction 

[mtnbkr]

I'm not sure that I like the idea of what such a person would look like.  The odd thing is that it might not be far from the big-headed small-bodied aliens of fiction 

Chris