5 ways to read the polls

[drewtam]

Bob Krumm lays out the 5 major interpretations regarding the confusing poll data.

This is the first time I've seen a good explanation of the confusion without getting into the technical details of D+8 vs D+2 etc. Especially article #2 which explains that we are seeing a bi-modal distribution via contradiction in state vs national polls.

As a bonus, the hypothetical post-election recriminations from each scenario are funny.

I recommend reading them in order...

http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2486
http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2488
http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2490
http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2492
http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2494

[makattak]

It's scenario 4 or 5. That is all. (Landslide against Obama.)

[MechAg94]

"Against Obama" is a good way to say it.  Mitt has run a better campaign than I thought he would but most of what I hear is anti-Obama.

Rush pointed out today that Obama and just about all his henchmen are campaigning in states they should already have locked up if he was going to win this.  Much of his ads and energy seems to be shoring up his base.  He wouldn't be doing this unless his campaign thought he needed to.

He was also noted that none of the talking heads seem to mention 2010 and the Tea Party as a factor.  He thinks they are fixated on 2008.  Rush asked what major elections have Democrats won since 2008? 

[TechMan]

"Against Obama" is a good way to say it.  Mitt has run a better campaign than I thought he would but most of what I hear is anti-Obama.

Rush pointed out today that Obama and just about all his henchmen are campaigning in states they should already have locked up if he was going to win this.  Much of his ads and energy seems to be shoring up his base.  He wouldn't be doing this unless his campaign thought he needed to.

He was also noted that none of the talking heads seem to mention 2010 and the Tea Party as a factor.  He thinks they are fixated on 2008.  Rush asked what major elections have Democrats won since 2008? 

What state do you live in?

[MechAg94]

Texas.  However, I wasn't talking about local chit chat.  I was talking about radio shows and internet stuff. 

[Perd Hapley]

He was also noted that none of the talking heads seem to mention 2010 and the Tea Party as a factor.  He thinks they are fixated on 2008.  Rush asked what major elections have Democrats won since 2008? 

Mainly, he was pointing out that the polls aren't taking the 2010 election turn-out into account. And that, for purposes of scientific rigor, they really can't compare an off-year election to a presidential one. But common sense dictates that we should factor in 2010, in our (non-scientific) predictions.

Also, one of the polls was based on an 11% over-representation of Democrats, but the high tide of Democrat enthusiasm in 2008 only saw a 7% over-representation at the polls.

[RocketMan]

I sure hope I am wrong, and God help the Republic, but scenarios one or two seem the most likely to me.  Given the recent shifts in most poll numbers and the abrupt decrease Romney's momentum this last week, Obama will take it.

[makattak]

I sure hope I am wrong, and God help the Republic, but scenarios one or two seem the most likely to me.  Given the recent shifts in most poll numbers and the abrupt decrease Romney's momentum this last week, Obama will take it.

Put simply, those polls are bull. I've never been more confident of an election in my life- it's a landslide and it isn't for Obama. Wait till the race is called at 9pm EST tomorrow.

[RocketMan]

Put simply, those polls are bull. I've never been more confident of an election in my life- it's a landslide and it isn't for Obama. Wait till the race is called at 9pm EST tomorrow.

I hope you are correct.  From your lips to the electorate's ears.

[AJ Dual]

Put simply, those polls are bull. I've never been more confident of an election in my life- it's a landslide and it isn't for Obama. Wait till the race is called at 9pm EST tomorrow.

I've got $300 bucks on Intrade riding on Romney, this is my gut reaction too and I put my money where my uh... gut is, but I will admit my frontal lobes are second-guessing this all the time.

The $800-odd will be nice if my gut was right though. 

[MechAg94]

I hope you are correct.  From your lips to the electorate's ears.

IMO, Obama has seen nothing but negatives for the last month.  Benghazi may not be getting a lot of major press, but it is out there and festering.  From what I have heard, Obama and all his cohorts are seeing crowds less than half the size of the crowds they had in 2008.  Based on locations and such, I am hearing that Democrat early voting and registrations are down.  States that were supposed to be 50/50 or lean Obama are either swinging to Mitt or in play.  There is definitely less enthusiasm on the Democrats side.  There may not be a lot of enthusiasm to elect Mitt, but there definitly is for voting out Obama.  As Rush had said, the Obama campaign is not behaving like they have this election locked up.  They are behaving like they are behind and trying to gin up their support. 

That is my take on it at least.  We ought to know in the next 24 hours.

[longeyes]

This Election is an attempt, by the rational, sane, and productive, to outrun the culture and the demographics.

It may work for this Election but it won't in the future.  What will work is what we might have a few years to figure out.

[makattak]

This Election is an attempt, by the rational, sane, and productive, to outrun the culture and the demographics.

It may work for this Election but it won't in the future.  What will work is what we might have a few years to figure out.

Culture and demographics are on the side of conservatives, long term.

We just have to try to push through the collapse of the liberal culture as they breed themselves into irrelevancy.

[DittoHead]

Culture and demographics are on the side of conservatives, long term.

In this country? How so?

[drewtam]

@dittohead

Not to put words in mak's mouth, but conservative leaning people have more children (demographics) and are more likely to be 2 parent homes (culture).
The counterpoint is that immigrants of all nationalities have even more kids, but tend to vote democrat.

This is a tough tug of war for the culture and politics of long term US.

There are 2 reactions to point #2 [immigrants]
1-"Republicans must do more to pull the immigrant minorities into the party"
OR
2-"Republicans must shutdown or dramatically reduce the immigration rate."
Each kind of response is pretty much mutually exclusive.



aside...
I think this conflict is what longeyes refers to quite often in his posts without ever really explaining the thought. But I am not really sure, because he is always cryptic in his posts.

[birdman]

Drew, this was a great thread, and interesting read, thanks :)

[red headed stranger]

From Krumm's prediction post:

Before I tell you that, I’m going to let you peer inside the gonculator that spat out the results.

Ok, what's his handle here?   

[makattak]

@dittohead

Not to put words in mak's mouth, but conservative leaning people have more children (demographics) and are more likely to be 2 parent homes (culture).
The counterpoint is that immigrants of all nationalities have even more kids, but tend to vote democrat.

This is a tough tug of war for the culture and politics of long term US.

There are 2 reactions to point #2 [immigrants]
1-"Republicans must do more to pull the immigrant minorities into the party"
OR
2-"Republicans must shutdown or dramatically reduce the immigration rate."
Each kind of response is pretty much mutually exclusive.



aside...
I think this conflict is what longeyes refers to quite often in his posts without ever really explaining the thought. But I am not really sure, because he is always cryptic in his posts.

And if immigrants continue to be liberal, they will no longer have as many children. Conservatives will win, one way or the other.

Further, if the immigrants continue to vote liberal, the US will no longer be an attractive place to emigrate to, creating fewer immigrants in the future. (Also note that while immigrants may vote liberally because of economic reasons, but they also tend to be socially conservative.)

[RocketMan]

I sure hope I am wrong, and God help the Republic, but scenarios one or two seem the most likely to me.  Given the recent shifts in most poll numbers and the abrupt decrease Romney's momentum this last week, Obama will take it.

I was right.  Dammit to hell.

[drewtam]

Looks like Nate Silver was right, and scenario #1 carried the day. Obama will carry Florida too, which makes it his optimistic scenario.

Romney carried none of his essential states (Florida, Virginia, Ohio). This is a pretty solid defeat. I am very disappointed.

[MicroBalrog]

(Also note that while immigrants may vote liberally because of economic reasons, but they also tend to be socially conservative.)

Lenin was economically left-wing and socially conservative (opposed 'free love' and prostitution, believed 'free love' to be a bourgeois lie.). I'm sorry but I think this is the worst of both worlds.

[Perd Hapley]

Lenin was economically left-wing and socially conservative (opposed 'free love' and prostitution, believed 'free love' to be a bourgeois lie.).

Wow. Very astute of him.

[MicroBalrog]

Fistful and Lenin... really, I have nothing further to say here.

[DittoHead]

And if immigrants continue to be liberal, they will no longer have as many children.

Is there anything to back this up?  If they are voting liberal now, what's going to change?

There's an awful lot of talk today about the shrinking "white male vote" and the changing demographics favoring the Democrats.

[makattak]

Is there anything to back this up?  If they are voting liberal now, what's going to change?

There's an awful lot of talk today about the shrinking "white male vote" and the changing demographics favoring the Democrats.

That would be because they are taking "whites" as a monolithic group. In the near future, they are likely correct. However, "whites" can be split amongst those not breeding at replacement rates and those breeding far above replacement rates.

Which of those splits do you think conservatives of any color fall under? (i.e. how many large families of liberals do you know?)

In fact, the "changing demographics" likely will lead to the complete takeover of the Democrat party by minorities as the white liberals breed themselves out of relevancy.