What She's Missing...

[Werewolf]

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/JenniferRobackMorse/2006/08/07/the_real_third_rail_in_politics

Americas total fertility rate peaked in 1957 at 3.68 babies per woman. Today, our fertility rate hovers right around the replacement rate of 2.1. The fertility of college educated non-Hispanic white women is now around 1.7. Since these are the women whose children are most likely to become productive taxpaying citizens, their fall in fertility takes a particularly large toll on the future taxes paid into the Social Security system.

What she fails to mention that's even more of a problem than less taxes being payed is the inevitable dumbing down of America. If the smart people stop breeding there's gonna be a lot less smart people around. And that's the real problem because dummies just cannot run corporartions, command military units, do scientific research, be doctors and all the other jobs that need doing that require actual intellectual ability.

That 1.71 bodes ill for the country..

[mtnbkr]

I've heard that argument before.  I don't buy it because I know too many smart and talented people who never went to college and are doing as well or better than folks that did.  It isn't the school, it's the drive.

For example, a friend of mine doesn't have a college degree nor even a HS diploma, yet is a talented system engineer.  I don't know his salary, but I'd be surprised if it weren't close to or above 100k given he's turned down that sort of money because he didn't want to work in DC.  

Chris

[K Frame]

It's all fluoride's fault.

Fluoridation of our drinking water was a government plot concocted by Commies that McCarthy missed and who were working in conjunction with Reptilian Aliens...

People have been bitching about the dumbing down of America for generations. I bet the outcries were horrendous when they stopped teaching kids how to calculate yield per acre as a percentage of total profit...

[Werewolf]

I've heard that argument before.  I don't buy it because I know too many smart and talented people who never went to college and are doing as well or better than folks that did.  It isn't the school, it's the drive.

For example, a friend of mine doesn't have a college degree nor even a HS diploma, yet is a talented system engineer.  I don't know his salary, but I'd be surprised if it weren't close to or above 100k given he's turned down that sort of money because he didn't want to work in DC.  

Chris

Good point - the statistic is it seems flawed. However, my gut tells me that the birthrate amongst successfull people with drive and intelligence is probably lower than that of the rest of society. That will eventually lead to a problem if it continues.

I'll predict that in a few hundred years there will be a core of elite, intelligent folk running things and the covert caste system that exists today will become very overt - maybe as over as in Brave New World if the present trend continues.

On the other hand the cream does tent to rise to the top - especially in the USA - so maybe there won't be a problem - I wouldn't make that bet though.

[Mabs2]

So...
The tax payers aren't having kids, which'll go on to pay taxes.
And the non tax payers are having more kids, which wont pay taxes either.
And the solution is to make the tax payers have more babies?
Is that what she's getting at?

[The Rabbi]

The whole argument is incredibly flawed.  How many entrepreneurs in America never went to or finished college?  How many people working skilled jobs never went to college?  How many immigrants are coming and providing the most dynamic part of the US economy?  There are many many factors that are all ignored in that statement.

[Nightfall]

Maybe them well edumacated folks aren't breeding because they have the brains to realize what a huge responsibility/time drain/money drain raising kids is.

All this talk almost makes me feel bad about looking forward to a vasectomy. Almost. :p

[DrAmazon]

Here's my quibble-how are they determining the "fertility rate"?  Is that determination based on live births and the number of women of that demographic?  Or is it somehow based on actual numbers of fertile women?  Citing a reduced "fertility rate" sparks concerns like what has already been stated about fluoride, cell phones, hormones in milk etc.  If the rate is based just on the number of births compared to the number of women, the reduced fertility is taking into account birth control, which would reduce this fertility rate, but we know the cause.

I HATE lousy statistics masquerading as science...

[crt360]

Americas total fertility rate peaked in 1957 at 3.68 babies per woman.
  The fertility of college educated non-Hispanic white women is now around 1.7

What was the fertility rate of college educated non-Hispanic white women in 1957?  What is America's total fertility rate today?

Her statistics are worthless to the reader.

Do we really want the same rate of population growth that we had fifty years ago?

If she really wants to increase the number of kids being had by college educated couples, she should look at the outrageous cost of higher education.  My student loan debt represents at least one kid I'm not going to pay for.  We're told our childrens' college education will cost twice as much as ours, which discourages having children even more.  In contrast, my parents went to college in the '50s/60s and had little or no school debt when they got out.  I'm sure my brother and I cost less to raise than I borrowed to become an "educated" tax-payer.

[Perd Hapley]

If the smart people stop breeding there's gonna be a lot less smart people around.

Is intelligence a heritable trait?  Can't very stupid people breed intelligent children?

[m1911owner]

Is intelligence a heritable trait?

Yes, of course it is.  Why would it not be?

[Standing Wolf]

Atlas, believe it or not, shrugged.

[Harold Tuttle]

the other interesting challenge is, what are all the kids that used to go do blue collar work at the  factory gonna do?

up in Reading PA, the answer seems to be "drugs"

[Werewolf]

If the smart people stop breeding there's gonna be a lot less smart people around.

Is intelligence a heritable trait?  Can't very stupid people breed intelligent children?

It's about as likely as two blue eyed parents who both have blue eyed parents siring a brown eyed baby - in other words it is possible but not likely.

Intelligence is most definitely determined by genes.

[The Rabbi]

If the smart people stop breeding there's gonna be a lot less smart people around.

Is intelligence a heritable trait?  Can't very stupid people breed intelligent children?

It's about as likely as two blue eyed parents who both have blue eyed parents siring a brown eyed baby - in other words it is possible but not likely.

Intelligence is most definitely determined by genes.

Inteliigence might be but success is the product of much more than intelligence.  A cousin of mine founded Automotive Radiator Specialty Corp (Solder Seal, Liquid Wrench etc) in the 1920s.  My grandmother, his 1st cousin, told me he was considered downright stupid and had to be tutored most of the way through school.  The company is, I think, the largest privately owned corporation in N.C.

[crt360]

If the smart people stop breeding there's gonna be a lot less smart people around.

Is intelligence a heritable trait?  Can't very stupid people breed intelligent children?

Sure.  All they have to do is play classical music and read the Wall Street Journal to the kid every day before he is born.  At least that's what I heard.    Of course, most stupid people don't appreciate classical music or even know what the WSJ is.

I definitely agree that intelligence is not a key to success.  Neither is hard work.  They can play a part in achieving it, but don't count on it.  I think a lot of stupid people are successful because they aren't aware of the risks they are taking, thus their motivation and enjoyment of their activity are not routinely stymied.  Sometimes it all comes crashing down around them due to their ignorance of rules, regulations, business practices, etc., but still many succeed.

[m1911owner]

I am amused by all the attempts here of "proof by anecdote."  Yes, there are people from bad circumstances who have gone on to become very successful.  But those stories are intersting because they are the exception, not the typical case.

There have been very careful studies that have researched these questions.  The results are that IQ is very strongly correlated with financial success, with avoiding trouble with the law, with years of educational attainment, and with success in marriage (i.e., not getting divorced), among other things.

[Werewolf]

Is intelligence a heritable trait?  Can't very stupid people breed intelligent children?

It's about as likely as two blue eyed parents who both have blue eyed parents siring a brown eyed baby - in other words it is possible but not likely.

Intelligence is most definitely determined by genes.

Inteliigence might be but success is the product of much more than intelligence.

Of course you are right. But I will add that intelligence is a tool in the box. Try building a house without a hammer. It can probably be done but not easily and It can be built a lot easier with a nail gun.

Success requires desire, intelligence and any number of other tools necessary to complete the task. One can be missing but it makes the task completion that much more difficult.

[brimic]

My wife and I did our patriotic duty and had 2 kids. We'd have more but we cannot afford them, taxes eat up too much of our income. We both need to work in order to afford a house. Daycare costs us around $17,000/year. The upside is that when the kids go to college, it won't much more of a burden than we have now or will have when we send them to private schools.  The downside is that our kids will probably have it much worse and will need to pay a much higher burden in taxes to pay the way for those who haven't been responsible for their own lives.