COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread

[Ben]

Isn't Ron in IL?

During Gov. JB Pritzker's health briefing on Sunday, Dr. Ngozi Ezike, the Illinois Department of Public Health director, said anyone who had COVID-19 at the time of death, even if the person died of other causes, is counted among the COVID deaths.

https://www.shawmediaillinois.com/2020/04/21/what-counts-as-a-covid-19-death/a38v0ed/

COVID-19 Alert No. 2
March 24, 2020
 
New ICD code introduced for COVID-19 deaths
This email is to alert you that a newly-introduced ICD code has been implemented to accurately capture mortality data
for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on death certificates.
 
Please read carefully and forward this email to the state statistical staff in your office who are involved in the
preparation of mortality data, as well as others who may receive questions when the data are released.
 
What is the new code?
The new ICD code for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is U07.1, and below is how it will appear in formal tabular
list format.
U07.1 COVID-19
Excludes:             Coronavirus infection, unspecified site (B34.2)
                              Severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], unspecified (U04.9)
 
The WHO has provided a second code, U07.2, for clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where a
laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available.  Because laboratory test results are not typically
reported on death certificates in the U.S., NCHS is not planning to implement U07.2 for mortality statistics.
 
When will it be implemented?
Immediately.
  
Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause?
The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate.
However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID19
being
the
underlying
cause
more
often
than
not.




What happens if certifiers report terms other than the suggested terms?
If a death certificate reports coronavirus without identifying a specific strain or explicitly specifying that it is
not COVID-19, NCHS will ask the states to follow up to verify whether or not the coronavirus was COVID-19.
As long as the phrase used indicates the 2019 coronavirus strain, NCHS expects to assign the new code.
However, it is preferable and more straightforward for certifiers to use the standard terminology (COVID-19).
  
What happens if the terms reported on the death certificate indicate uncertainty?
If the death certificate reports terms such as “probable COVID-19” or “likely COVID-19,” these terms would be
assigned the new ICD code. It Is not likely that NCHS will follow up on these cases.
If “pending COVID-19 testing” is reported on the death certificate, this would be considered a pending record.
In this scenario, NCHS would expect to receive an updated record, since the code will likely result in R99. In
this case, NCHS will ask the states to follow up to verify if test results confirmed that the decedent had COVID19.




Do I need to make any changes at the jurisdictional level to accommodate the new ICD code?
Not necessarily, but you will want to confirm that your systems and programs do not behave as if U07.1 is an
unknown code.
  
Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?
COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is
assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based
on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc.  If the decedent had other chronic
conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part
II.  (See attached Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths)
 
  
  Steven Schwartz, PhD
Director – Division of Vital Statistics
National Center for Health Statistics
3311 Toledo Rd | Hyattsville, MD 20782

Bolding above mine.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

[230RN]

Maybe they ought to call it the Chinkbug.

"or contributed to death" seems to turn it all around again to the previous "definitions."

So where are we, after all that?

Seems to me all they're actually saying is to be a little more careful about what's reported as C-19.  Which begs the question of what is the actual HTG death rate from "it."  Whatever "it" is.  Let's face it, the medical community can be as victimized by mob fad psychology as anyone else.

[DittoHead]

I have seen convincing arguments both ways about the deaths being over/under counted.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-crisis-21000-more-deaths-than-normal-in-new-york-city-since-march
Without enough testing it's pretty hard to get an accurate picture and it doesn't make much sense to use a test on a person who died of an unknown respiratory illness when the living need those tests a lot more.

[WLJ]

Seems many of the same people who were screaming Orange Bad Man for not enough testing are now screaming Orange Man bad for increased testing because the tests are unreliable
 

[Perd Hapley]

Seems many of the same people who were screaming Orange Bad Man for not enough testing are now screaming Orange Man bad for increased testing because the tests are unreliable
 

Of course. You didn't think Orange Man Bad could actually do anything to make his Orange Man self Orange Man Good, did you?

[WLJ]

Dogs now

Family dog in N.C. may be first to test positive for coronavirus
https://www.wave3.com/2020/04/28/family-dog-nc-may-be-first-test-positive-coronavirus/

[Ron]

I have seen convincing arguments both ways about the deaths being over/under counted.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-crisis-21000-more-deaths-than-normal-in-new-york-city-since-march
Without enough testing it's pretty hard to get an accurate picture and it doesn't make much sense to use a test on a person who died of an unknown respiratory illness when the living need those tests a lot more.

If you aren't convinced by them admitting in writing and on video that they are padding the numbers then I don't know what other facts could possibly sway you into seeing reality.

The arguments about undercounting are all models, projections and probabilities ie not concrete reality.

[zxcvbob]

Dogs now

Family dog in N.C. may be first to test positive for coronavirus
https://www.wave3.com/2020/04/28/family-dog-nc-may-be-first-test-positive-coronavirus/

I'm not surprised.  I also doubt that it's serious in dogs or cats (but likely different between them) 

Transmission from one dog to another is probably unlikely, so I'm not sure why this is news.  Dogs to people in a household, sure, but you gave the disease to the dog in the first place, so dogs aren't really much of a vector.

[charby]

If you aren't convinced by them admitting in writing and on video that they are padding the numbers then I don't know what other facts could possibly sway you into seeing reality.

The arguments about undercounting are all models, projections and probabilities ie not concrete reality.

We get it you hate models. For us that work in STEM fields we use models as a prediction tools all of the time. As I just typed it's a prediction, just like a theory is until is proven to be fact.

[Ron]

We get it you hate models. For us that work in STEM fields we use models as a prediction tools all of the time. As I just typed it's a prediction, just like a theory is until is proven to be fact.

I don't hate models.

I hate that "experts" and politicians use a sleight of hand trick and fool the public into thinking that the models reflect reality, they don't.

Models reflect the underlying biases of the modeler.

They are used to build narratives and consensus that aren't built on reality.

There is no humility.

[TommyGunn]

I'm not surprised.  I also doubt that it's serious in dogs or cats (but likely different between them) 

Transmission from one dog to another is probably unlikely, so I'm not sure why this is news.  Dogs to people in a household, sure, but you gave the disease to the dog in the first place, so dogs aren't really much of a vector.

A tiger in a New York City zoo is recovering from covid 19  disease. 

[DittoHead]

The arguments about undercounting are all models, projections and probabilities ie not concrete reality.

NYC experienced thousands of “excess deaths” from mid-March to late-April. That's not a forward looking prediction model, it's a comparison to previous years with solid data.
They attributed about ~16.5k of those to Covid19, or about 75% of them. You can argue that they shouldn't attribute that many to the new virus but the excess deaths are not some statistical trickery.

Financial Times compared the number of deaths (from all causes) in 14 countries for March and April 2020 with death numbers for these countries over the same period of time in 2015–2019. Regardless of whether the COVID-19 death rate is 0.1 percent or three times that high, the new coronavirus is drastically driving up deaths.

"Some of these deaths may be the result of causes other than Covid-19, as people avoid hospitals for other ailments," the newspaper notes. "But excess mortality has risen most steeply in places suffering the worst Covid-19 outbreaks, suggesting most of these deaths are directly related to the virus rather than simply side-effects of lockdowns."

[Ron]

NYC experienced thousands of “excess deaths” from mid-March to late-April. That's not a forward looking prediction model, it's a comparison to previous years with solid data.
They attributed about ~16.5k of those to Covid19, or about 75% of them. You can argue that they shouldn't attribute that many to the new virus but the excess deaths are not some statistical trickery.

What if they said 15%? What if they said 90%?

It's a statistical analysis that MAY or MAY NOT align with reality.

In fact it could have been a bad flu, or MAYBE not.

It can be whatever they decide it MIGHT be.

[charby]

I don't hate models.

I hate that "experts" and politicians use a sleight of hand trick and fool the public into thinking that the models reflect reality, they don't.

Models reflect the underlying biases of the modeler.

They are used to build narratives and consensus that aren't built on reality.

There is no humility.

They need to use more models to get a trend line, not just one particular model. Like when they post all the computer models of a predicted hurricane path, they usually use a dozen or more, a trend is pretty obvious when the hurricane is going to go, but there are always outliers. Using the outlier may fit their agenda but they aren't being truthful.

[Ron]

They need to use more models to get a trend line, not just one particular model. Like when they post all the computer models of a predicted hurricane path, they usually use a dozen or more, a trend is pretty obvious when the hurricane is going to go, but there are always outliers. Using the outlier may fit their agenda but they aren't being truthful.

and I would be evacuating right away if the models forecast a hurricane coming over my house, out of abundance of caution.

If the hurricane models were always wrong I might adopt a different opinion and practice.

I also respect social distancing and adopted the precautionary principle early on as we had so little good data.

Now it is beginning to look like the bad, incomplete data is actually a feature not a "bug" for politicians hell bent on cratering the country.

[charby]

Now it is beginning to look like the bad, incomplete data is actually a feature not a "bug" for politicians hell bent on cratering the country.

The only people you should be pointing your finger at are those who keep voting for incumbents regardless of party. People need to stop being party loyal too. The parties and elected people don't care about us. Primaries are coming, vote the incumbent out.

[Ron]

The only people you should be pointing your finger at are those who keep voting for incumbents regardless of party. People need to stop being party loyal too. The parties and elected people don't care about us. Primaries are coming, vote the incumbent out.

The sheep are stupid so have an excuse but the shepherds are evil and know damn well what they are doing.

[charby]

The sheep are stupid so have an excuse but the shepherds are evil and know damn well what they are doing.

Just like all "news" pundits, they know what they are doing and know what bullscat to shovel to their listeners. Listeners willing lap it up too.

[ConstitutionCowboy]

Just like all "news" pundits, they know what they are doing and know what bullscat to shovel to their listeners. Listeners willing lap it up too.

Which segues into the following:

More misinformation from the MSM: Today on "CBS This Morning," Gail King spouted misinformation about flying in an airliner and how it is so dangerous because the air in the plane is recirculated. Actually, the air in airliners is constantly refreshed using bleed air from the compressor sections of the jet engines (Some use electric compressors sucking in outside air.). Its how the airliners are pressurized. Air enters the cabin(and cockpit) from the engines after it passes through a turbo-cooler/inter-cooler that allows the high pressure hot air to expand which lowers the pressure and regulates the temperature of the air. The air enters the cabin and then the cabin pressure is regulated by outflow valves.

The air in a typical airliner is actually replaced 10 to 15 times an hour (every 4 to 6 minutes) which is about 5 times faster than in an operating room in a hospital any WAY more often in some places like Walmart, or your local grocery store. That leads me to believe your chances of catching someone else's sniffles on an airliner are at least 10 times less than in Walmart and about 5 times less than in an operating room!

WILL SOMEONE WITH ACCESS TO THE MSM PLEASE INFORM THEM OF WHAT GOES ON IN AN AIRLINER THAT THEIR IGNORANCE AND LACK OF RESEARCH HAS REVEALED!

Woody

[charby]

https://www.facebook.com/drericnepute/posts/2625920074322788

Early on some of the medical press was mentioning that when the outbreak started in China around 23% of the people who contracted the disease* developed heart problems from the virus (viruses causing heart disease is not a new thing, FYI).

So if a person contacted Covid-19 and 10 years later died from heart failure due to Covid-19, how should they record the cause of death?

Measles outbreaks caused heart issues for the boomers and earlier generations. Are we looking at an increase in future heart diseases (and reduced life expectancy) from Covid-19 for everyone alive today?

*https://healthmanagement.org/c/cardio/news/covid-19-clinical-guidance-for-cardiovascular-care

[charby]

Which segues into the following:

More misinformation from the MSM: Today on "CBS This Morning," Gail King spouted misinformation about flying in an airliner and how it is so dangerous because the air in the plane is recirculated. Actually, the air in airliners is constantly refreshed using bleed air from the compressor sections of the jet engines (Some use electric compressors sucking in outside air.). Its how the airliners are pressurized. Air enters the cabin(and cockpit) from the engines after it passes through a turbo-cooler/inter-cooler that allows the high pressure hot air to expand which lowers the pressure and regulates the temperature of the air. The air enters the cabin and then the cabin pressure is regulated by outflow valves.

The air in a typical airliner is actually replaced 10 to 15 times an hour (every 4 to 6 minutes) which is about 5 times faster than in an operating room in a hospital any WAY more often in some places like Walmart, or your local grocery store. That leads me to believe your chances of catching someone else's sniffles on an airliner are at least 10 times less than in Walmart and about 5 times less than in an operating room!

WILL SOMEONE WITH ACCESS TO THE MSM PLEASE INFORM THEM OF WHAT GOES ON IN AN AIRLINER THAT THEIR IGNORANCE AND LACK OF RESEARCH HAS REVEALED!

Woody

Here you go.... 1 (212) 975-3247  give them a call.

[WLJ]

Which segues into the following:

More misinformation from the MSM: Today on "CBS This Morning," Gail King spouted misinformation about flying in an airliner and how it is so dangerous because the air in the plane is recirculated. Actually, the air in airliners is constantly refreshed using bleed air from the compressor sections of the jet engines (Some use electric compressors sucking in outside air.). Its how the airliners are pressurized. Air enters the cabin(and cockpit) from the engines after it passes through a turbo-cooler/inter-cooler that allows the high pressure hot air to expand which lowers the pressure and regulates the temperature of the air. The air enters the cabin and then the cabin pressure is regulated by outflow valves.

The air in a typical airliner is actually replaced 10 to 15 times an hour (every 4 to 6 minutes) which is about 5 times faster than in an operating room in a hospital any WAY more often in some places like Walmart, or your local grocery store. That leads me to believe your chances of catching someone else's sniffles on an airliner are at least 10 times less than in Walmart and about 5 times less than in an operating room!

WILL SOMEONE WITH ACCESS TO THE MSM PLEASE INFORM THEM OF WHAT GOES ON IN AN AIRLINER THAT THEIR IGNORANCE AND LACK OF RESEARCH HAS REVEALED!

Woody

Feelz > Facts

[Boomhauer]

Why would the media care about getting anything right?

[MechAg94]

They need to use more models to get a trend line, not just one particular model. Like when they post all the computer models of a predicted hurricane path, they usually use a dozen or more, a trend is pretty obvious when the hurricane is going to go, but there are always outliers. Using the outlier may fit their agenda but they aren't being truthful.

Hurricane models may not be the best example.  The models are mostly very inaccurate more than a couple days in the future.  No one ever evacuates until the storm is real close.  At that point, the models can have less error but even then storms are unpredictable.  Some go straight in as predicted, but others don't. 

[charby]

Hurricane models may not be the best example.  The models are mostly very inaccurate more than a couple days in the future.  No one ever evacuates until the storm is real close.  At that point, the models can have less error but even then storms are unpredictable.  Some go straight in as predicted, but others don't. 

Why I said they stack a bunch of models together to get a trend line, still a prediction.