Author Topic: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread  (Read 453617 times)

Perd Hapley

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2675 on: April 28, 2020, 12:25:19 PM »
???
NYC experienced thousands of “excess deaths” from mid-March to late-April. That's not a forward looking prediction model, it's a comparison to previous years with solid data.
They attributed about ~16.5k of those to Covid19, or about 75% of them. You can argue that they shouldn't attribute that many to the new virus but the excess deaths are not some statistical trickery.



Tragic. I wonder how many of those deaths would not have happened, if the city were still open for business.
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zxcvbob

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2676 on: April 28, 2020, 12:56:42 PM »

Tragic. I wonder how many of those deaths would not have happened, if the city were still open for business.

Bravo.  I think you were being sarcastic, but it's a legitimate question that should be studied and probably won't be because it doesn't fit the narrative.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2677 on: April 28, 2020, 01:09:45 PM »
Bravo.  I think you were being sarcastic, but it's a legitimate question that should be studied and probably won't be because it doesn't fit the narrative.

No, not being sarcastic. The deaths from the virus are real, and so are the side effects of the Great Lock-down.
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zxcvbob

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2678 on: April 28, 2020, 01:49:45 PM »
No, not being sarcastic. The deaths from the virus are real, and so are the side effects of the Great Lock-down.

1) Change everything at once
2) Observe what happens
3) Attribute the results to your favorite theory and ignore other possibilies
4) Profit!
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Angel Eyes

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2679 on: April 28, 2020, 02:02:57 PM »
1) Change everything at once
2) Observe what happens
3) Attribute the results to your favorite theory and ignore other possibilies
4) Profit!

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dogmush

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2680 on: April 28, 2020, 02:10:07 PM »
Hurricane models may not be the best example.  The models are mostly very inaccurate more than a couple days in the future.  No one ever evacuates until the storm is real close.  At that point, the models can have less error but even then storms are unpredictable.  Some go straight in as predicted, but others don't. 

Actually a they are a great example:  40 models that all say something different, the results can vary by an order of magnitude, reality does not conform to any of them, and the people that build them think they are useful.

Having lived in FL for almost 20 years, and as a professional mariner that has dogged storms for a living, the hurricane models don't predict anything that an observant person with an isobaric chart couldn't.

Ron

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2681 on: April 28, 2020, 04:56:06 PM »
Actually a they are a great example:  40 models that all say something different, the results can vary by an order of magnitude, reality does not conform to any of them, and the people that build them think they are useful.

Having lived in FL for almost 20 years, and as a professional mariner that has dogged storms for a living, the hurricane models don't predict anything that an observant person with an isobaric chart couldn't.

Interesting, I never lived in Florida. Just watched the news during hurricane season.
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Brad Johnson

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2682 on: April 28, 2020, 05:26:25 PM »
Campus is having committee meetings to try and get Research back on track. Everyone involved has "great ideas" that are are either logistically unfeasible or organizationally unrealistic. Simple things like limiting the number of people in areas and putting sanitizer stations outside bathrooms/lab entrances are being poo-poo'd as "not doing enough". The ideas that aren't getting shot down are straight from the Overreaction For Dummies handbook (Example: Propping bathroom doors open and posting monitoring staff to make sure people are washing their hands properly). Most depend entirely on immediate and consistent PPE availability, PPE which is currently unavailable in anything resembling necessary quantities (though they somehow think that thrice daily "reminders" to Purchasing about how important this is will somehow make more product miraculously appear). They necessitate the creation of a team structure which not only does not currently exist, it will take 4-6 weeks to develop and roll out. They also don't take into account the bulk of product necessary, the manpower needs involved, and the policing that will be involved for the programs to last more than a few days before people are so tire of the rigmarole that they start ignoring it altogether. At best, it will be implemented by mid-June, by which time the hysteria will have died down and attentions turned to whatever Emergency du Jour the media has concocted for Summer.  

TLDR version: Whatever plan they come up with will take too long to implement, be too cumbersome to sustain, and will go into effect too late. It will be, at best, an annoyance that lets them claim to have done something.

I've exhausted my supply of shits to give for today.

Brad
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zxcvbob

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2683 on: April 28, 2020, 06:22:18 PM »
Propping the bathroom doors open if you can do so without someone in the hall getting an eyeful (there really should be a baffle wall or a corner to prevent that when the door is opened anyway) is a good idea.  Or install a toe-kick opener so you can open the door with your foot.  I saw one of those recently. It worked and it looked like it was cheap to install.  Bathroom monitors to make sure everyone washes their hands it just creepy and a waste of payroll.
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MillCreek

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2684 on: April 28, 2020, 06:48:30 PM »
Bathroom monitors to make sure everyone washes their hands it just creepy and a waste of payroll.

I have had to do this at work as a way of checking compliance with hand hygiene. The hospital accreditors want to see evidence that you monitor this.  The novelty of hanging around the restroom trying to look busy wore off quickly. 
_____________
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Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

Perd Hapley

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2685 on: April 28, 2020, 07:57:22 PM »
Or install a toe-kick opener so you can open the door with your foot.

I would use those, but the only kind I ever see are like this. Don't want to scratch up my boots, thanks.

I know there are better ones, though.
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MillCreek

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2686 on: April 28, 2020, 08:48:52 PM »
I thought this was hilarious:

_____________
Regards,
MillCreek
Snohomish County, WA  USA


Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

zxcvbob

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2687 on: April 28, 2020, 08:51:05 PM »
I would use those, but the only kind I ever see are like this. Don't want to scratch up my boots, thanks.

I know there are better ones, though.

Notice the better one is cheaper ;)  I saw one recently that was somewhere in between.  

What bugs me (and did a little even before the current mess) is restroom doors that open in, and there's no button on the wall to open it (like for handicaps), no toe opener, and they got rid of all the paper towels and put in a blow dryer instead.  So there's no way to open the door without grabbing the nasty handle.  Which means everybody else before you grabbed nasty door handle too.  (that should be a health code violation)
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Perd Hapley

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2688 on: April 28, 2020, 08:56:46 PM »
Notice the better one is cheaper ;)  I saw one recently that was somewhere in between.  

What bugs me (and did a little even before the current mess) is restroom doors that open in, and there's no button on the wall to open it (like for handicaps), no toe opener, and they got rid of all the paper towels and put in a blow dryer instead.  So there's no way to open the door without grabbing the nasty handle.  Which means everybody else before you grabbed nasty door handle too.  (that should be a health code violation)

Yup. And if the faucet in that restroom doesn't shut off automatically, I'm leaving it running.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2689 on: April 28, 2020, 09:48:04 PM »
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Ben

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2690 on: April 28, 2020, 09:59:17 PM »
Looks like sciency California plans on being locked down for a long time:

Quote
"We are not going back to the way things were until we get to immunity or a vaccine," Newsom said. "We will base reopening plans on facts and data, not on ideology. Not what we want. Not what we hope."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/politics/california-phased-reopening-plan/index.html
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Perd Hapley

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2691 on: April 28, 2020, 10:01:57 PM »
Looks like sciency California plans on being locked down for a long time:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/politics/california-phased-reopening-plan/index.html

Twould be amusing if some of the less wacko areas declared themselves sanctuary counties/cities from lockdown policies.  :lol:
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WLJ

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2692 on: April 28, 2020, 10:14:59 PM »
Lucy, you've got some 'splaining to do!

Quote
    Remember the woman who told the media that Trump killed her husband after her husband allegedly drank fish tank cleaner containing chloroquine phosphate at Trump’s urging? Police are now investigating whether that man was killed by his wife. https://t.co/S6lH5UiH1Z

    — Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 29, 2020

Police department’s homicide division investigating case of man who died after ingesting fish-tank cleaner
https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2020/04/28/police-departments-homicide-division-investigating-case-of-man-who-died-after-ingesting-fish-tank-cleaner/
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Perd Hapley

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2693 on: April 28, 2020, 10:27:17 PM »
Lucy, you've got some 'splaining to do!

Police department’s homicide division investigating case of man who died after ingesting fish-tank cleaner
https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2020/04/28/police-departments-homicide-division-investigating-case-of-man-who-died-after-ingesting-fish-tank-cleaner/

I don't know who first raised that possibility, but Crowder was onto it more than 3 weeks ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLGQLKNBS-o
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Perd Hapley

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2695 on: April 28, 2020, 10:56:02 PM »
"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2697 on: April 29, 2020, 08:37:39 AM »
Campus is having committee meetings to try and get Research back on track. Everyone involved has "great ideas" that are are either logistically unfeasible or organizationally unrealistic. Simple things like limiting the number of people in areas and putting sanitizer stations outside bathrooms/lab entrances are being poo-poo'd as "not doing enough". The ideas that aren't getting shot down are straight from the Overreaction For Dummies handbook (Example: Propping bathroom doors open and posting monitoring staff to make sure people are washing their hands properly). Most depend entirely on immediate and consistent PPE availability, PPE which is currently unavailable in anything resembling necessary quantities (though they somehow think that thrice daily "reminders" to Purchasing about how important this is will somehow make more product miraculously appear). They necessitate the creation of a team structure which not only does not currently exist, it will take 4-6 weeks to develop and roll out. They also don't take into account the bulk of product necessary, the manpower needs involved, and the policing that will be involved for the programs to last more than a few days before people are so tire of the rigmarole that they start ignoring it altogether. At best, it will be implemented by mid-June, by which time the hysteria will have died down and attentions turned to whatever Emergency du Jour the media has concocted for Summer.  

TLDR version: Whatever plan they come up with will take too long to implement, be too cumbersome to sustain, and will go into effect too late. It will be, at best, an annoyance that lets them claim to have done something.

I've exhausted my supply of shits to give for today.

Brad

Sounds like working for the government.  The monday after Trump declared a national emergency, my work had a mandatory security briefing on some changes.  There were 30+ of us sitting in a briefing room.  It was a full week until they sent "non essentials" home and also authorized telework for those who could.
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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2698 on: April 29, 2020, 08:41:18 AM »
Notice the better one is cheaper ;)  I saw one recently that was somewhere in between.  

What bugs me (and did a little even before the current mess) is restroom doors that open in, and there's no button on the wall to open it (like for handicaps), no toe opener, and they got rid of all the paper towels and put in a blow dryer instead.  So there's no way to open the door without grabbing the nasty handle.  Which means everybody else before you grabbed nasty door handle too.  (that should be a health code violation)

That's what your foot is for.
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charby

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #2699 on: April 29, 2020, 08:43:51 AM »
Notice the better one is cheaper ;)  I saw one recently that was somewhere in between.  

What bugs me (and did a little even before the current mess) is restroom doors that open in, and there's no button on the wall to open it (like for handicaps), no toe opener, and they got rid of all the paper towels and put in a blow dryer instead.  So there's no way to open the door without grabbing the nasty handle.  Which means everybody else before you grabbed nasty door handle too.  (that should be a health code violation)

So more government?
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