Polls Vs Results

[Scout26]

Going and checking the Real Clear Politics website for election results and I noticed something odd.

For every race where a D won, the polls were pretty close to the actual percentage of votes the D got.   However, in races where an R won, the polls were off by anything from 4%-10% or even more.   

Virgina Senate, for example, showed Gillespie at 38% in the polls, but he got 48.2%, pending count of (military) absentee ballots.

Illinois Governor: Rauner at 44.8% (and losing) in the polls, but garnering 50.8% of the vote and winning.

NC Senate:  Tillis polled 43.4% (and losing), garners 49% and wins.

I've heard that polls generally "undercount" R votes by 3-4% but this election it was off by much more then that, in almost every race.

[charby]

The polls to follow (Des Moines Register and Loras College) in Iowa showed Joni Ernst up by 6-7 point close to the election, that is about what she won by.

[MechAg94]

Polls can estimate things and gauge opinions but they can't predict turnout easily.  Republicans had the turnout this time and Obama did not have near the support or turnout this election as he did in the Presidential election.

That is one opinion I have heard that I agree with.  This whole idea of turning out the "moderate" or undecided voters is hog wash.  It is about who can turn out their base and get more of their own voters to get out and vote.  The Republican leadership hasn't really enthused the based but Obama has ticked people off.  On the other side, enough Democrats realize that Obama is a loser so turnout on their side was down.  Looking back, neither McCain nor Romney did much to get their base fired up.  The only thing McCain did was pick Palin as his VP candidate. 

[wmenorr67]

Here in Oklahoma the weather was kinda of crappy and one "expert" stated that because of that most of who would get out in that would be those pissed off and wanted change.

But why is it when Congress has an approval rating of less than 20% still over 90% are reelected?

[lupinus]

Here in Oklahoma the weather was kinda of crappy and one "expert" stated that because of that most of who would get out in that would be those pissed off and wanted change.

But why is it when Congress has an approval rating of less than 20% still over 90% are reelected?

Because its alway someone else's fault, never your guys fault.

[Firethorn]

Here in Oklahoma the weather was kinda of crappy and one "expert" stated that because of that most of who would get out in that would be those pissed off and wanted change.

But why is it when Congress has an approval rating of less than 20% still over 90% are reelected?

As lupinus said - when you ask how somebody approves of congress, they're rating 535 odd people.  When you ask about their specific critters, approval ratings are generally far higher.

[Scout26]

But why is it when Congress has an approval rating of less than 20% still over 90% are reelected?

Because my guy is great, but your guy sucks.

[KD5NRH]

Because my guy is great, but your guy sucks.

This is one of the things I sometimes get annoyed about; mine really is better than all the alternatives I've seen run against him, so I can't improve things by voting for a change at that level.

http://votesmart.org/candidate/political-courage-test/49296/john-carter/

[MechAg94]

This is one of the things I sometimes get annoyed about; mine really is better than all the alternatives I've seen run against him, so I can't improve things by voting for a change at that level.

http://votesmart.org/candidate/political-courage-test/49296/john-carter/

If you have thought about it enough to actually KNOW your guy is okay or the best you can get, then you are NOT one of the people being referred to.  

[Hawkmoon]

This is one of the things I sometimes get annoyed about; mine really is better than all the alternatives I've seen run against him, so I can't improve things by voting for a change at that level.

Sadly, just about anybody you pluck from the street would be an improvement over my representative or either of my senators.