5% of Americans licensed to carry

[Perd Hapley]

Summarizing the summary, “a total of 11,113,013 Americans currently hold concealed carry permits representing 4.8 percent of the total [adult] population....As TTAG commentator CBI notes below, the five percent stat represents the number of concealed carry permit holders as a percentage of America’s adult population. Equally, that’s about 13 times the number of federal, state, and local sworn law enforcement officers.”

http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2014/07/robert-farago/john-more-guns-less-crime-lott-5-of-americans-now-have-carry-permits/#more-328034

http://crimepreventionresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Concealed-Carry-Permit-Holders-Across-the-United-States.pdf

[RoadKingLarry]

I had an interesting chat with a tech in Sacramento a few nights ago. He'd recently received his permit and was telling me the hoops he had to jump through. I shared Oklahoma's process and costs. I think I bummed him out some when I told him I still had 8 1/2 years left on my 10 year permit.
 

[Monkeyleg]

About ten years ago the NRA estimated the number of permit holders to be about 7 million, which works out to roughly 2% of the entire population. I guess they underestimated.

[Perd Hapley]

Permits are more easily acquired in more jurisdictions, than ten years ago. Then again, permits are required in fewer states.

[charby]

I'm surprised that the percentage is that high.

[brimic]

I'm surprised that the percentage is that high.

Locally, it doesn't surprise me- WI issued its 200,000th permit about 8 months ago. The state has an adult population just over 4 million.

As a national composite, it surprises me. A lot of the big square states and Southern states are probably going to have percentages well above 5%, but places like California, New York, Mass, are huge population sinks where its a lot harder to get a CCW, if at all.

[Ben]

I'm surprised that the percentage is that high.

I wonder if they screen for individuals with multiple CCWs, or just count the number from each state's registry? I have four non-resident permits.

[lee n. field]

Ill-i-noise's numbers are old.  It's (last I saw) over 70K at this point.  Not bad, for something that costs $450-ish to get (training plus fee).

[Perd Hapley]

Ill-i-noise's numbers are old.  It's (last I saw) over 70K at this point.  Not bad, for something that costs $450-ish to get (training plus fee).

In, what, six months? Not bad.

[Matthew Carberry]

NYC is 11 million essentially out of contention, ditto NJ's 9. LA alone is almost 4. Greater San Fran? DC? Metro Boston/Baltimore?

Now the "older than 21" part of that is probably 3/4 or so, but it's a lump that couldn't get permits if they wanted them, even in "may-issue" states that issue in rural counties.

The more accurate "percent of adult population" to look at in terms of carry popularity is "percent of adult population in areas where carry is possible in actual practice."

You wouldn't count the blind in a study about color preferences.

[Perd Hapley]

The more accurate "percent of adult population" to look at in terms of carry popularity is "percent of adult population in areas where carry is possible in actual practice."

You wouldn't count the blind in a study about color preferences.

Good point. To be more accurate, you'd remove those disqualified by felonies, etc.

[birdman]

Good point. To be more accurate, you'd remove those disqualified by felonies, etc.

And an estimate of people who carry in constitutional carry states

Regardless of method there is a really good conclusion here (for us)
1. CCW holders are on average more "gun folk" than normal gun owners, and on average are more knowledgable /take their gun rights more seriously
2. CCW holders outnumber LEOs by a huge margin

Pretty well proves the anecdotal evidence...in mass shooting attempts/incidents, where CCW is possible, the result is that CCW holders make a difference (even if they don't take a shot, eg AZ and OR), and on average, anytime there is more than 20-40 adults around and CCW is permissible, there is going to be an armed guy (or at least a high probability).

Another factor, typical voter turnout in a presidential election is 50% or so, and 30% in an midterm! or about 100 and 60 million respectively.
That means CCW holders ALONE would constitute 10-15% of the entire count of votes cast, if they all voted.

So if you are a gun owner, VOTE, we have a HUGE block.

[birdman]

Also, subtracting CA and IL where its either next to impossible, or just recently possible, that reduces the possible adult pop to ~170M rather than 200M, meaning 11M is actually closer to 1:16, rather than 1:20

[Viking]

Another factor, typical voter turnout in a presidential election is 50% or so, and 30% in an midterm! or about 100 and 60 million respectively.
That means CCW holders ALONE would constitute 10-15% of the entire count of votes cast, if they all voted.

So if you are a gun owner, VOTE, we have a HUGE block.

This is scary in a way, although depending on the political sympathies of those who spend the election day on their couch rather than casting their ballot, it might be for the best. FWIW, elections to the Riksdag usually have around 80-85%* voter turnout here. This election coming up might turn interesting...

Last election: 84.63%, the one before that, 81.99%.

[Monkeyleg]

NYC is 11 million essentially out of contention, ditto NJ's 9. LA alone is almost 4. Greater San Fran? DC? Metro Boston/Baltimore?

Now the "older than 21" part of that is probably 3/4 or so, but it's a lump that couldn't get permits if they wanted them, even in "may-issue" states that issue in rural counties.

The more accurate "percent of adult population" to look at in terms of carry popularity is "percent of adult population in areas where carry is possible in actual practice."

You wouldn't count the blind in a study about color preferences.

Now hold on. There are ten people in San Francisco who have carry permits, with Dianne Feinstein being one of them. Let's be fair. 

[Perd Hapley]

Here's an article that highlights a different set of findings from the same study.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/07/09/murder-drops-as-concealed-carry-permits-rise-claims-study/

Permit-holders have much more than doubled since 2007 [despite multiple states recognizing constitutional carry since that time], and violent crime has dropped 22%. Also:

Lott claims his group’s analysis shows that each one percentage point increase in the adult population holding permits brings a 1.4 percent drop in the murder rate.