I don't personally think it's going to blow, or the rest of the park would be showing activity around the rim, too. I do think there will be an energetic event, though.
Odds are in favor of a smaller "normal" volcanic event. However, the Yellowstone hotspot is too big to be vented or get any real relief from the pressure and vast energy in that magma chamber by smaller events.
And there's always the chance that the seismic activity from one small eruption can weaken the crust and faults over the entire chamber and the eruption could get successively bigger. Still a long-shot.
However, I wonder how you calculate the person-odds of such a thing.
It's like the airline industry comparing itself to travel-miles vs. fatalities, where they beat cars by a factor of ten or whatever...
However you compare the airlines to cars in
person-hours, it's only a factor of two safer, etc.
I think Micro is right that traffic fatalities are probably comparable to the missile attacks for now. However, traffic can be avoided, if you're willing to sit at home. Whereas with the missiles, sitting at home, or moving about, probably makes no difference as long as you're not moving out of the average impact area.
