Stocks Taking a Hit

[French G.]

I market time so I can get in after the crash, heavily. I lost nothing in 2008-2009 until I got back in early. A divorce and a debt or two and I have twice liquidated small 401s. Worth it to me. Now I contribute every week but the 401 is a gambling account. If I live to 60 I have a pension coming and maybe SS, or we are all playing societal collapse in which case nothing matters.

[Ben]

These days I consider myself lucky to have a pension. Because I separated early, my pension is not as high as if I would have waited until right now to retire. I just started drawing it this last January. Still, that plus social security will cover all my necessity expenses.

Right now those expenses are covered by the pension and dividends from Vanguard. I'm hitting the big 6-2 soon, and will file for SS as soon as I do. Then the Vanguard payouts become fun money. I see no reason to wait on the SS. A smaller amount early is still an amount I  can use, in case I'm hit by a bus at 64 and 11 months.

[MillCreek]

^^^I am still waffling on when to retire and when to start drawing SS.  My wife will likely retire at the end of this school year.  I had always thought that I would retire within a year of her, but that in large part depends on healthcare insurance.  She will be eligible for Medicare next year, but I am not eligible until 2025.  Part of the reason I bought the annuity was to help cover any monthly healthcare insurance costs after her retirement.

In terms of SS, I am leaning towards not waiting until FRA, since SS will cover a chunk of monthly expenses, thus reducing the amount withdrawn from the retirement accounts, allowing them to keep accumulating a return.  On Bogleheads, the usual consensus is that anyone who starts taking SS before age 70 is an idiot, if you can afford to do so.

[Ben]

In terms of SS, I am leaning towards not waiting until FRA, since SS will cover a chunk of monthly expenses, thus reducing the amount withdrawn from the retirement accounts, allowing them to keep accumulating a return. 

This is my thinking on it. I think I can grow my money faster than the gov can.

I don't understand the Bogleheads and others, but yeah, that seems to be the "standard" regarding SS on most of the investment forums, other than maybe the Early Retirement forums.

[K Frame]

"I market time so I can get in after the crash, heavily."

That's not really market timing in the classical sense of the definition, which is generally a lot more "active."

[K Frame]

"A smaller amount early is still an amount I  can use, in case I'm hit by a bus at 64 and 11 months."

Do they even have buses where you live? Or is it still horse-drawn buckboards with extra seats? 

[Ben]

"A smaller amount early is still an amount I  can use, in case I'm hit by a bus at 64 and 11 months."

Do they even have buses where you live? Or is it still horse-drawn buckboards with extra seats? 

Oh, right. I should have said, "Run over by a team of mules." 

[Ben]

"I market time so I can get in after the crash, heavily."

That's not really market timing in the classical sense of the definition, which is generally a lot more "active."

Agree. Buying big dips is not really timing the market. Really, neither is taking some money out after a fast, high rise, if it's tax efficient for you to do so. It's doing the roller coaster that does people in, thinking they can outsmart the market in the long term.

Also, big dips is BIG dips - not the crap that has been going on for the last week. I really like to buy into the really big panic dips, which might only happen every 1-5 years. Other people's runaway emotion and panic, combined with patience on my part, has been pretty darn good for me.

[French G.]

Also not interested in waiting until 70 to cash SS. Be a hell of a note to punch out at 69.

[charby]

Also not interested in waiting until 70 to cash SS. Be a hell of a note to punch out at 69.

That's the game I'm playing start taking if I retire at 62-63, wait until I'm 65 or 67.

All depends how much my monthly income with my first retirement checks. I may even go work as an "fix it/consulting" agronomist for 2-3 years after I retire from my current job. If I can make 100k a year for a couple years, might be worth it.