Author Topic: Maybe I am confused...I took basic economics  (Read 8451 times)

RevDisk

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 12,633
    • RevDisk.net
Re: Maybe I am confused...I took basic economics
« Reply #25 on: January 11, 2009, 10:48:58 PM »
It is economic judo being worked on China, India, Russia, the ME and all of those other suckers who bought our debt (lent us money). They thought they were gonna get a nice return on their investments. Nope. We will just inflate away that possibility. And as we are one of the lowest or lowest saving nations on the planet with the largest economy. It will work until we have to fight the repo man. Then it could go all wobbly. But who cares about that. That is for the next administration to worry about....

Umm....  Perhaps you are unaware of the fact that only 25.52% of the national debt is held by foreign entities.  "All those suckers" happens to be the US citizens.  Think bank reserves, investment trusts, credit unions, etc etc.   It would be unwise to default on the major holdings of every bank and credit union in the US.

Actually, ah, the US government has never once defaulted on a single payment on t-bills.  Fiscal 2008 is projected at $412 Billion in interest payments on t-bills.  Believe it or not, t-bills historically never paid great interest.  No one invests in t-bills to make a great return on their investment.  The primary reason why they are so popular (excluding legally mandatory purchases) is their historical reliability.  Miss a payment, no one is buying them.  And expect lawsuits out the ying yang, that likely would succeed.  Trust me, they'd loot your savings account directly before they miss payments on t-bills.
 
But let's say "soak 'em foreigners".  The top foreign holders of US t-bills are China (652.9b), Japan (585.5b), and UK (360.2b).  Next closest country is Brazil, quite down the list investment wise (134.5b).  Japan and UK are among our closest allies.  Cutting them off would be a bad idea.   China, well...   Cutting off trade with China would be mighty interesting.  Considering how much money they're kicking back to the politicians.

Not sure why you think India (12.2b), Russia (80.9b) are major holders.  They're not even close.  Heck, Luxembourg has almost more in holdings than India and Russia put together.  OPEC holds 187.7b, but that includes 6 non-ME countries. 
"Rev, your picture is in my King James Bible, where Paul talks about "inventors of evil."  Yes, I know you'll take that as a compliment."  - Fistful, possibly highest compliment I've ever received.

Balog

  • Unrepentant race traitor
  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 17,774
  • What if we tried more?
Re: Maybe I am confused...I took basic economics
« Reply #26 on: January 12, 2009, 02:10:20 PM »
I still don't understand how the fed.gov can expect to spends billions more than it takes in every year, and think that will never catch up to them.
Quote from: French G.
I was always pleasant, friendly and within arm's reach of a gun.

Quote from: Standing Wolf
If government is the answer, it must have been a really, really, really stupid question.

Headless Thompson Gunner

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 8,517
Re: Maybe I am confused...I took basic economics
« Reply #27 on: January 12, 2009, 02:26:00 PM »
I still don't understand how the fed.gov can expect to spends billions more than it takes in every year, and think that will never catch up to them.
People keep buying their debt. Heck, right now the buying public can't get enough.  US FedGov debt is the safest investment in the world. 

Werewolf

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2,126
  • Lead, Follow or Get the HELL out of the WAY!
Re: Maybe I am confused...I took basic economics
« Reply #28 on: January 12, 2009, 02:49:24 PM »
People keep buying their debt. Heck, right now the buying public can't get enough.  US FedGov debt is the safest investment in the world. 
In both economics and finance whatever the going interest rate on Gov Debt is is considered the RISK FREE rate.

I imagine that that is going to change in the next 20 years or so and is really going to screw up a whole lot of economic and financial models.
Life is short, Break the rules, Forgive quickly, Kiss slowly, Love
truly, Laugh uncontrollably, And never regret anything that made you smile.

Fight Me Online

ELSORDO

  • New Member
  • Posts: 12
Re: Maybe I am confused...I took basic economics
« Reply #29 on: January 12, 2009, 03:49:01 PM »
Newbie here....I probably shouldn't attempt to quote this as I can't recall the source, but it was so sobering as to bring me up short when I heard it.  Paraphrasiing it went like....."If all the US Government debt came due tomorrow, there would literally not be enough money collectively between all the US citizens and US businesses to make the payment."   Sorry I can't quote the source but maybe someone else heard it as well.
My Mantra:Front Sight, Front Sight, Front Sight

Balog

  • Unrepentant race traitor
  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 17,774
  • What if we tried more?
Re: Maybe I am confused...I took basic economics
« Reply #30 on: January 12, 2009, 04:20:21 PM »
People keep buying their debt. Heck, right now the buying public can't get enough.  US FedGov debt is the safest investment in the world. 

Well, yeah, but they have to repay the debt right? And to finance the ever increasing debt obligations they.... sell more debt? Do you honestly think this can be continued forever?
Quote from: French G.
I was always pleasant, friendly and within arm's reach of a gun.

Quote from: Standing Wolf
If government is the answer, it must have been a really, really, really stupid question.

Headless Thompson Gunner

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 8,517
Re: Maybe I am confused...I took basic economics
« Reply #31 on: January 12, 2009, 11:13:46 PM »
Well, yeah, but they have to repay the debt right? And to finance the ever increasing debt obligations they.... sell more debt? Do you honestly think this can be continued forever?
Continued forever?  Maybe, maybe not. 

Continued for the foreseeable future?  Abso-fricken-lutely.

FedGov is the primo financial powerhouse in the world.  They have the single most valuable asset ever known to man: the power to tax the American economy.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2009, 11:19:37 PM by Headless Thompson Gunner »

Balog

  • Unrepentant race traitor
  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 17,774
  • What if we tried more?
Re: Maybe I am confused...I took basic economics
« Reply #32 on: January 13, 2009, 12:25:15 PM »
But the more they tax, the worse the economy. It's like cannabalizing yourself. Sure, you can cut your leg off and eat it, but that's hardly a good strategy. And just saying "Well we're tough, we can take it!" Isn't much of an answer either. America is not invincible. The more the things that make us different and special are taken away the closer we come to ruin. I'm not suggesting TEOTWAWKI per se, but there is only so much damage even the American economy can take before it implodes and we become another 2nd or 3rd world country.

Our avowed socialist climate czar (Kyoto anyone?), plus bailouts, plus New New Deal social programs, plus socialized medicine, plus baby boomers starting to call in their Social Security........ I think just saying "We're America, we can never run out of money!" is a naïve and foolhardy thought process.
Quote from: French G.
I was always pleasant, friendly and within arm's reach of a gun.

Quote from: Standing Wolf
If government is the answer, it must have been a really, really, really stupid question.

Tallpine

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 23,172
  • Grumpy Old Grandpa
Re: Maybe I am confused...I took basic economics
« Reply #33 on: January 15, 2009, 04:30:29 PM »
Quote
Well the benefit is when its all over with your home loans and student loan payments should be dirt cheap.

Yep, you can make the choice between buying lunch and paying your monthly mortgage payment  =|
Freedom is a heavy load, a great and strange burden for the spirit to undertake. It is not easy. It is not a gift given, but a choice made, and the choice may be a hard one. The road goes upward toward the light; but the laden traveller may never reach the end of it.  - Ursula Le Guin