Some thoughts about Obama

[TommyGunn]

Look at the Ramussen polls.

He's a conservative pollster, and he generally finds the president with an approval rating of around 47-50%.  He rates higher than pretty much every potential republican challenger.
If you think the polls don't show he's the favorite for re-election, you are foolin yourselves.

One reason it might appear like he should be more unpopular than he is, is that quite a lot more people hate him that love him- still, about half of america "somewhat approves".  And this is before the media has been unleased on the Republican nominee...

We'll have to see how poorly the economy is doing over the summer and fall of 2012.  I am not convinced it is going to be doing any better than it is now.  We have a 1.8% growth rate when economists state we need a 5-7% growth rate to get out of a recession, so we're still going to be hurting then.
If people vote their pocketbooks, I think Obama might be hurting.
OTOH, as Socrates once stated, "the problem with democracy is that two fools outvote one wise man."  I yield to no one in my respect for the American voter to make truly assinine decisions.  If that weren't true Obama wouldn't be infesting the oval office right now.
The Hannities, the Limbaughs, the Boortzes, all those pop culture pundits better go into overdrive; and the repukes better get on board -- they need to redouble their efforts to ejumakate the American electorate.  Heck, scratch that, they better DO IT!    Doubling zero doesn't help ......

[roo_ster]

BHO is a black politician and folks have been beat over the head with the "criticism of BHO is because you're racist" for many months.  I'd bet that 10+% of those polled don't like him poll in his favor due to that factor alone.

[Zardozimo Oprah Bannedalas]

Look out, people. You're beginning to sound like the Ron Paul supporters who made all kinds of excuses as to why he was really doing a lot better than the polls said. "They don't call cell phones, and most Paul supporters don't have landlines!" and stuff like that. Then when the voters came along at primary time, the numbers were pretty much identical to the polls.

[roo_ster]

Look out, people. You're beginning to sound like the Ron Paul supporters who made all kinds of excuses as to why he was really doing a lot better than the polls said. "They don't call cell phones, and most Paul supporters don't have landlines!" and stuff like that. Then when the voters came along at primary time, the numbers were pretty much identical to the polls.

Er, except that past events showed it occured in the opposite manner:
1. Dem candidate on top forever
2. On election day, early polls of voters outside of voting venues show Dem still leading, but margin eroding.
3. But, in the privacy of the voting booth, the margin narrows even more, and sometimes flips
4. Dem voters go apey when their boy not elected as the polling showed he was supposed to.

I am not the first to notice this phenomenon.

[Pb]

It's a long time till the election, but without some huge thing to expose the president for the person, he is (like another crash) I don't see him losing re-election.  I hoped the polls were wrong before the 2010 election too.  It seems like just wishful thinking to me at this point.

[longeyes]

There is nothing to pin on Obama except the deliberate destruction of the country.  Since when did that matter to the (metaphorically) blind, lame, and halt?

[MechAg94]

It will be an uphill battle for any Republican challenger simply because many in the media simply won't say a bad word about Obama. 

I am not surprised that Republican Challengers may not poll well since the ones who have the best chance are fairly unknown.  Hard to give a favorable rating to someone you don't know.

As with any poll, the devil is in the details.  If you don't have the poll questions and all the underlying data, the poll is pretty worthless.

[longeyes]

It will be an uphill battle for any Republican challenger simply because many in the media simply won't say a bad word about Obama.

And at some point it will be openly recognized that this is the most important political issue of our time and that something rather dramatic is going to have to be done about it.  I predict it will be.

[Waitone]

Never, ever draw conclusions about polls until you see the poll's setup, questions, and tabulations.  Sampling is absolutely critical to results.  Some polls play games with sampling which you find out only when picking through nuts and bolts.

I would suggest a helpful exercise would be to google up "How to interpret political polls" and become thoroughly knowledgeable of polling factors and techniques.  That way you can develop a righteous cynicism about polls and those sponsor them.  Polls are never informational in politics.  They are used to steer and check effectiveness of a message.