Influenza Pandemic in the works?

[Sindawe]

Raging Stage 6 Bird Flu Pandemic in China?

Recombinomics Commentary
July 22, 2005

"Hey, are we going to war? Something's not right. I can see many armoured vehicles and soldiers with guns on the road. I can ever hear planes in the air. Rumor has it that they're from Yushu (i believe that this's a location, but i'm not sure which) Can someone please clarify what's happening?"

"They're over here too. I can see hundreds of troops, many of whom are in full battle order. I'm from Yushu"

"I'm from Chengdu. Are you from the region where the bird flu was found?"

"I'm seeing the same thing here too, in LaSuTung (translation, i think it's a mongolian city). I've never seen so many planes in my entire life."

"It must be related to the bird flu."

"I thought "it" (the bird flu) was from the Qinghai region? It's here now? That's really fast."

Continues at : http://www.recombinomics.com/News/07220501/H5N1_Raging_Pandemic_China.html
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Signs point to global influenza oubreak--WHO warning
22 Jul 2005 14:49:24 GMT

Source: Reuters
   
By Stephanie Nebehay

GENEVA, July 22 (Reuters) - Indonesia's first human bird flu case, coupled with more birds dying elsewhere including Russia, are signs a long-dreaded global influenza pandemic may be approaching, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Friday.

Health officials fear the virus will mutate and mix with human influenza, creating a deadly pandemic strain that becomes easily transmissible and could kill millions of people.

Margaret Chan, WHO's new director for pandemic influenza preparedness, said there had been no known sustained human to human transmission of the deadly virus, but called for stepping up disease surveillance among poultry and humans worldwide.

Indonesia this week confirmed its first death from the virus, which has so far killed more than 50 people since late 2003 in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, roughly half of the known cases.

An Indonesian government official was confirmed as having died of the H5N1 bird flu virus, but results of laboratory tests on his two young daughters who also died are still awaited.

"This is more evidence for us to be concerned about developments in the region," Chan told a news briefing.

Continues at : http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L22175059.htm

===============

I'm not making any judgements here one way or the other, just noting what may be occuring.

[K Frame]

Obviously President George Bush's fault.

If he wasn't such a dummy he'd have cured the flu, AIDS, cancer, and heart disease by now, while ending world hunger and terrorism in his spare time.

Flu pandemics happen. We're due for one.

[Standing Wolf]

Yeah. If the mean old Republicans hadn't cheated hero John Kerry out of the election, he'd have cured this by now, because he's lots smarter than Bush.

We're just going to have to sacrifice more of the nation's civil liberties to fight this terrible global pandemic.

Seriously: the wonder is that a weird influenza virus hasn't struck since 1918.

[K Frame]

"Seriously: the wonder is that a weird influenza virus hasn't struck since 1918."

Think again.

There were three "weird influenza virus" pandemics in the 20th century, 1918-19, 1957, and 1968-69.

1917-18 was, by far, the wors.t

[Guest]

WOW!  somebody besides me is awake!  Ladies and Gentlemen, you have fair warning. The only difference between Henry Niman, and WHO is their perception on timing- Niman contends there is ALREADY a stage six pandemic being covered up in China, the WHO says a pandemic is imminent but as of now "only" stage three.
 
  Our great problem as a species is our inability to concieve of events that have not personally happened to us.
  We have, for the most part, lived in an age of medical wonders, and it is almost imposssible to give credence to a real killer plague. I mean, really! In clean and sanitary modern America? - YES.
 
  This event, in my opinion, will dwarf "terrorism" issues.
 
  One more thing- Niman says the new Quinghai flu isolates from china  have a variation that is found in ALL human flu's. Previous avian flu isolates have not had this variation.

[K Frame]

Well, if the illness is contained in China, to the point where they're successfully covering it up, then it's not a pandemic.

Yet.

[Justin]

What Mike said.

Besides, I see a *lot* of talking heads blathering on about an influenza pandemic.  The way I see it, there's not much that can be done if it happens, short of getting an immunization shot, and using that hand sanitizer stuff religiously.

*shrugs shoulders*

[stevelyn]

The world needs a good flushing anyway. Long live Darwin.

[K Frame]

Careful, Steve. If a pandemic actually comes along, you (or any one of us) could find ourselves circling the bowl.

[atek3]

a Million people will die before I believe all the flu pandemic nonsense.  Every Month the WHO has a press release or two about how "this will be the big one"... horse feathers...

atek3

[grampster]

And America's leftists will scream "discrimination" if we start to refuse anyone entrance into America when the infected people start to come here to escape the disease.  We must not profile people who are sick, that would be so wrong and unfair.

[Guest]

I just don't understand why people deny even the possibility of this pandemic- Is it the ostrich syndrome? Or the lack of historical education? Or the cry wolf syndrome?

 Item 1-- In 1918 and 1919, from 20 to 100 million people died from the flu. New York lost 30,000. The USA lost 600,000. This is not fantasy, exaggeration or fear tactics. This is independently verifiable fact.
 Since that time, we have had several other pandemics, none as severe, but significant none the less.
 My belief is that the societal factors such as dependence on our transportation network for food, the increased reliance on government for "help", and a much increased population density, will greatly exacerbate the next pandemic.
 
  item 2-I read a lot, and I have yet to find any expert who thinks we will NOT have a pandemic, in fact, the term used for the present time is the "interpandemic period"
  My suspicion is the reason folks don't like to contemplate it and indeed refuse to accept the possibility, is that it is too damn terrifying- very similar to resistance to gun ownership on the grounds that "I don't need a gun, nothing bad
has ever (or will) happened to me"
 
  Item 3- there are some very disturbing reports coming out of asia now. I know, I know- "the news has been reporting this for years". But it is essential to realize these are not repetitions of the same virus- This virus is in a state of continuous mutation,  actively altering it's makeup to better attack it's hosts.
  To draw a parallel, if one found ones car first vandalized, then entered, then stolen, and ones house broken into and burgled, one might be tempted to conclude the possibility of a personal attack was imminent .

[StopTheGrays]

Hmmmmmmm.....could this be related? http://gatorpress.com/badsam/page7.html

Lot of microbiologist being wacked or dying under weird circumstances, maybe to prevent any work on a cure for pandemic that may come about? [/tinfoil hat]

[K Frame]

What that article doesn't say is that the guy from Leesburg, Virginia, was killed by his daughter and her boyfriend. But I guess "THEY" got to her.

[Standing Wolf]

The way I see it, there's not much that can be done if it happens, short of getting an immunization shot, and using that hand sanitizer stuff religiously.

You're going to have to settle for washing your hands a lot, because there won't be an immunization shot until the pandemic is extensive, if then.

On the proverbial "bright side," you can bet your last nickel if immunization shots become available, they'll be reserved first for high government officials. Aristocrats first, don't you know?

[Dannyboy]

It's possible that there could be a vaccine in the near future.  Probably not likely, but possible.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4734265.stm

UK firm's bird flu vaccine hope

A British firm has developed a bird flu vaccine which could be easily mass produced, officials say.

PowerMed's vaccine is further away from the market than others, but as it is a DNA-based, it may be easier to produce than traditional egg-grown flu shots.

The firm said 1.2kg of the vaccine, which is expected to enter clinical trials next year, would be enough to vaccinate the US population twice over.

More than 50 people have died from bird flu in south east Asia.

At present H5N1 flu strain poses only a limited threat to humans as it cannot be easily spread from person to person.

But experts fear the strain will eventually mutate to acquire this ability, causing a flu pandemic, which could kill as many as 50,000 people in the UK.

PowerMed chief executive Dr Clive Dix said he believed enough of the vaccine could be produced within three months to vaccinate everybody.

He also said one advantage was that it could be easily adapted if the strain mutated - something experts believe is likely if a pandemic arises.

And he added: "No other vaccine technology offers this speed of response.

Outbreak

"In the event of a pandemic, most deaths and illness will occur in the first six months of an outbreak.

"We believe that our technology offers the best potential to save lives and minimise the economic impact of a flu pandemic."

PowerMed's vaccine is produced by cloning a gene from the current bird flu strain and slotting it into an existing DNA backbone vaccine.

Unlike many other vaccines it would not need to be kept refrigerated and does not need to be produced in as secure an environment as ones grown in chicken eggs as the risk of contamination through a live virus is reduced.

John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary's School of Medicine, said the DNA-based vaccine was likely to play an important role in combating a flu pandemic.

"They have advantages of speed over some of the other vaccines, and also potentially in the way the immune system reacts to it.

"The cupboard is pretty bare at the moment so it is important these companies develop the vaccines."

Several countries across the world, including the UK, have already said they will stockpile doses of vaccines to fight a flu outbreak.

[telewinz]

This "new" flu isn't funny, I'd take it REAL serious.  I had the flu in '69 and I was a healthy teenager at the time.  Except for a serious case of food poisoning, it was the WORST illness I've had in my 53 years!  Drowning in your own mucus (and a fever to boot) is nothing to take lightly.  I plan to keep a close eye on future developments.

Flu Pandemic Lurking?

WASHINGTON, August 1, 2005

Possible Flu Pandemic

Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt, on The Early Show Monday (Photo: CBS/The Early Show)
 
(CBS) Some public health officials believe a deadly worldwide flu pandemic is inevitable. They say it would likely involve a new strain of the virus that spreads easily from person-to-person.

And, while admitting it can't be ruled out, Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt says precautions are being taken to try to keep officials ahead of the curve.

"We've had three pandemics of different proportion in the last century," Leavitt told co-anchor Harry Smith on The Early Show Monday. "These things do happen. They're like biologic earthquakes. They will occur. The important thing is that we're prepared when they do and find ways to minimize them."

The so-called Asian bird flu is "the pandemic we're worried about currently," Leavitt continued. "Since 1997, when it first began to appear, we've seen it appear in some 10 or more countries. Since 2004, we've been able to identify 109 cases where it has actually transmitted to people. About half of those died. So it is of concern.

"And we're doing things that I believe are common sense. We're increasing the amount of surveillance or early warning that we have in other countries. We have some of the best people in the world, literally, from the United States who are on the ground in the countries where it exists, to be able to help those countries identify it and deal with it."

Leavitt explained that the flu virus "is constantly migrating and changing. The big worry when a pandemic occurs is when there's a skip, or actually, not just migrates or drifts, but actually skips into something brand new that people don't have an immunity to.

"That's when we begin to see the kind of person-to-person-to-person transition or transmission, rather, where one person gives it to two and two to four and four to eight and so forth, and it spreads across the globe, sometimes very rapidly. And that's what we have to avoid and (it's) the reason that we're doing all we can to assure that we know when it occurs and that we can take good public health measures. We're working to develop vaccines and stocking stockpiles of antiviral medicines and learning how best to get them into the hands of people as quickly as possible."

Leavitt assured Smith supplies of flu medicines should be adequate this season.

"If everything goes as expected," he says, "we will. We're constantly monitoring, making certain that we do have them and in the right places.

"There's a lot that can be learned from the past. We're doing everything we can to apply those lessons to make certain that those who produce the flu vaccine are doing it in a way that's acceptable to us, and that we can distribute them across the country."

Why is the recent outbreak so serious?

The avian flu spreading in Asia is part of what is called the H1 family of flu viruses. It is a pathogen that is notorious in human history, killing millions during three influenza pandemics of the 20th century. The World Health Organization says the spread and severity of the Asian bird flu outbreak is "historically unprecedented."

[Justin]

On the proverbial "bright side," you can bet your last nickel if immunization shots become available, they'll be reserved first for high government officials. Aristocrats first, don't you know?

My only regret is that I can give my life just once so that Ted Kennedy may continue to baste in expensive hooch and flu immunization shots.

[mfree]

Hrmm... if one does roll up on our shores, I'll need to be extremely careful. Last time I had flu was a strain from either PR or the USVI that did a number on me for a week and eventually gave me a case of viral pericarditis, nee a "fake" heart attack that's not quite so fake.

[Guest]

Well, just an update- apparently the avian flu that has aquired human genetic traits is spreading in Kazakstan and parts of Russia. this is the flu that killed thousands of wild birds in Quinghai lake in China.  The ever- present concern is that it picks up a mutation that allows easy human to human transmission. Of course, the wider the avian flu speads, the greater the chance- I suspect the probability is exponential in nature.

[Justin]

item 2-I read a lot, and I have yet to find any expert who thinks we will NOT have a pandemic, in fact, the term used for the present time is the "interpandemic period"

And your point?  There's no end of astronomers who've been predicting that we're going to get nailed by a giant meteor, or geologists who believe that we're going to get hit by "the big one" or volcanologists who believe that the magma under Yellowstone will erupt into a super volcano.  In the end, there's not much I can do to prevent something like this from happening.  Really all that can be done is to hope that the experts that are paid to study this stuff can head it off at the pass before Captain Tripps comes along and wipes us all out.

Fatalistic?
Perhaps.

But at least I'm not getting all worked up about something I have zero control over.