Author Topic: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24  (Read 141 times)

WLJ

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Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« on: May 10, 2024, 08:49:10 AM »
Got a big one, several actually, on the way.

https://www.spaceweather.com/

Quote
ARE WE ABOUT TO EXPERIENCE A NEW CARRINGTON EVENT? No. AR3664 is indeed a 'Carrington-class' sunspot, but the CMEs it hurled toward Earth over the past few days are not as potent as the monster CME of Sept. 1, 1859. NOAA says we might experience a severe geomagnetic storm when the CMEs arrive this weekend. If geomagnetic storms were hurricanes, 'severe' would be category 4. The Carrington Event was category 5 or greater. So this is no Carrington Event. Even so, category 4 is pretty intense--if it happens. Stay tuned for some great auroras! Aurora alerts: SMS Text

FIVE CMEs ARE HEADING FOR EARTH: Great sunspot AR3664 has hurled an astonishing five CMEs toward Earth. They're all in this frenetic 2-day coronagraph movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
...

The two bright objects are Jupiter (left) and Venus (right). The CMEs will miss those planets and hit Earth instead.

According to a NOAA forecast model, the first three CMEs could merge for form a "Cannibal CME." Cannibal CMEs form when fast-moving CMEs overtake and gobble up slower CMEs in front of them. Internal shock waves created by such CME collisions do an good job sparking geomagnetic storms when they strike Earth's magnetic field.

The Cannibal CME is expected to arrive on May 11th. It alone could spark a strong (G3) geomagnetic storm. With two more CMEs following close behind, storm levels could become extreme (G4), sparking auroras at mid- to low-latitudes across Europe and the USA.
:
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Ben

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2024, 09:09:07 AM »
The one thing to remember about "category 4 vs category 5" is that the Carrington event occurred in a time pre-sensitive electronics. The simple electronics of the time were affected, but also easily repaired / brought back online. Who knows where the line is, but I suspect the modern world will be majorly affected by something some degree more than we have experienced, but some degree less than Carrington.
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Kingcreek

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2024, 10:41:18 AM »
Well it’s been nice visiting with you all.
I guess we all go Amish 05/11
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230RN

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2024, 05:27:27 PM »
When they say "geomagnetic storms," does that mean actual, like, thunderstorms?  Will there be more, less, or no difference in "regular" atmospheric storm activity? 

If I had to guess, I'd expect that the extra excitation would tend to dissipate the atmospheric charges causing lightning, so there'd be fewer lightning strokes across the planet.

Yes, no, maybe?

Pardon my ignorance.

Terry, 230RN
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Ben

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2024, 06:28:51 PM »
It's supposed to be good naked eye viewing in my AO, starting at dusk. They don't mention if it's civil, nautical, or astronomical, so that can mean anything from 2130-2300 this time of year. Tough going for a dude who's normally in the rack by 2130.  :laugh:
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Tuco

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WLJ

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2024, 09:17:33 PM »
G5

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Ben

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2024, 09:24:17 PM »
For kicks I'm going to start randomly checking my GPS error. A G5 storm could bump error up towards the old selective availability days of the '90s.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

WLJ

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2024, 09:28:58 PM »
"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

cordex

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2024, 09:31:27 PM »
Oh cool, I might get to see … nope, cloudy.

Hawkmoon

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2024, 09:47:23 PM »
Oh cool, I might get to see … nope, cloudy.

Raining.

Bummer.
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WLJ

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2024, 10:28:21 PM »
Any one blame climate change yet?


"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

zxcvbob

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2024, 11:48:58 PM »
It should be spectacular here in Minnesota, but there's so much light pollution here I can barely even see any stars.  :mad:  Everyone has their overly-bright porch lights on, my neighbor has motion activated security flood lights that stay on most of the time, plus the city replaced the old street lights with LED fixtures that have a lot of light spill.  This used to be a really dark street just a couple of years ago and I could see the Milky Way on a clear night.
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230RN

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Re: Geomagnetic storm alert issued 5-10-24
« Reply #13 on: Today at 01:54:58 AM »
40N, 105W  11:50 PM MDT nothing here, but 76% cloud cover.  Someone should have told the Weather Service to make sure it was clear tonight and tomorrow night.

I wonder what it looks like from the space station.

I guess I had a dumb question about atmospheric weather up above.

Terry, 230RN
WHATEVER YOUR DEFINITION OF "INFRINGE " IS, YOU SHOULDN'T BE DOING IT.