Advocatus Diaboli - the War on Drugs

[Perd Hapley]

U.S. and Mexican officials say the grotesque violence is a symptom the cartels have been wounded by police and soldiers. “It may seem contradictory, but the unfortunate level of violence is a sign of success in the fight against drugs,” said Michele Leonhart, head of the Drug Enforcement Administration. The cartels “are like caged animals, attacking one another,” she added.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/mexican-drug-cartels-targeting-and-killing-children/2011/04/07/AFwkFb9C_story.html


I share that quotation because I just came across it today, and because there is a dumb question I have been meaning to pose for some time. To wit:

We know that the rate of violent crime has been declining for about the past 20 years, or so, and we know that this roughly coincides with the liberalizing of gun laws in the United States, and with a rise in the number and variety of firearms in private hands. We also know that post hoc don't necessarily mean propter hoc, as there are a number of reasons this could be so. Anything from a change in policing methods, to the infamous Freakonomics abortion theory.

So what if someone were to argue that, contrary to Ms. Leonhart up there, the drop in crime is a result of the Drug War, and/or the attendant abuse of civil liberties? Does this seem reasonable, or merely plausible?

[vaskidmark]

Not sure that I'd buy TWOSD being responsible for any drop in crime.

Drug prices are artificially high.
Most drug users are not employed full-time in a position that provides for economic independence.
Drug users are more inclined to find ways to meet the artificially high price of drugs than detox, go through re/habilitation, and take the long road to econonic independence.

OTOH the killing frenzy may be indicative of collapse from within - possibly related to drug use.

Given the fact that the drug trade has pretty much been the model of free market economy in action (supply and demand, etc) I would want to see a ot more destruction of processing facilities than capture of mules and their cargo before I actually beieved TWOSD was having a meaningful effect.

stay safe.

[Blakenzy]

They wouldn't be killing each other like that if there weren't insane profits to be made. These people aren't fanatics, they are very much in it to reap the tangible benefits. So fail there, as they are still very much receiving incredible amounts of US dollars for their products. That also means fail here, as people are still using and demand is as high as the people are. The "War on drugs" is hypocrisy and bureaucracy at it's finest. Damn peace and safety, so long as you don't get high right? Did you know that hydrocodone is the No. 1 most prescribed drug in the U.S.?? So it's really not that you aren't allowed to get high, it's just that you can't get high with non taxed drugs you see...

I'm sorry but it must be the way we were raised. America... the land of pill popping, line snorting, puff puff toking, crystal cooking, dragon chasing people, that's the way we like it, and that's the way it's going to be.

I would say that even though violent crime may have gone down, corporate/financial/political crime has skyrocketed... doesn't make for good movie material, but hey!

[MikeB]

Most drug users are not employed full-time in a position that provides for economic independence.

I suspect you may be completely 180 off on that. I'd be willing to bet that most drug users are gainfully employed. Especially when it comes to Marijuana and probably Cocaine.

Just for a thought experiment ...

I haven't checked the statistics in awhile, but approx. 15% of the US population admits Marijuana use in surveys. The real number is probably higher. That is far above the current government unemployment rate of aprox. 5.5% and even above estimates of the real unemployment rate of aprox 10% from recent statistics I recall.

[Perd Hapley]

I haven't checked the statistics in awhile, but approx. 15% of the US population admits Marijuana use in surveys. The real number is probably higher. That is far above the current government unemployment rate of aprox. 5.5% and even above estimates of the real unemployment rate of aprox 10% from recent statistics I recall.

I don't know if the survey is supposed to include minors, but the unemployment figures don't. Not to mention that the unemployment figures exclude a great many adults.

[Perd Hapley]

I don't think any reply so far has cogently refuted the hypothesis. Let me state it this way. The drug war escalated in the 80s and 90s, and the incarceration rate soared. After several years of this, the crime rate began to drop, and has been, ever since. So why not attribute this to our drug policy?

I would say that even though violent crime may have gone down, corporate/financial/political crime has skyrocketed...

Source?

I think there is a certain violent crime that has increased exponentially, and if it were included in crime stats, would result in a very high crime rate indeed. But that is a topic for another thread.

[cordex]

So why not attribute this to our drug policy?

Why not attribute it to the increase in video games, inflation, or music videos?

[Blakenzy]

[...]
Source?

I think there is a certain violent crime that has increased exponentially, and if it were included in crime stats, would result in a very high crime rate indeed. But that is a topic for another thread.

The news... of the past 15 years or so...

Which type of violent crime are you talking about?

[brimic]

I don't think any reply so far has cogently refuted the hypothesis. Let me state it this way. The drug war escalated in the 80s and 90s, and the incarceration rate soared. After several years of this, the crime rate began to drop, and has been, ever since. So why not attribute this to our drug policy?

Source?

I think there is a certain violent crime that has increased exponentially, and if it were included in crime stats, would result in a very high crime rate indeed. But that is a topic for another thread.

There was a book called 'freakonomics' that came out several years ago now that made the claim that legalization of abortions was the cause of the drop in crime in the 90s due to fewer unwanted babies being born.
Making the claim that the war on some drugs caused the decline in crime is making the same illogical  leap.

[TommyGunn]

Wasn't the drop in crime in the '90s the result of the fact that many of the criminals aged, and thus tended to become less criminally active?  That's the theory I heard ... can't vouch for it.

[vaskidmark]

Wasn't the drop in crime in the '90s the result of the fact that many of the criminals aged, and thus tended to become less criminally active?  That's the theory I heard ... can't vouch for it.

Thought that came later as all the folks that had been incarcerated in the '90s were getting out of prison.

But yes, all penological studies insist that somewhere between 35 and 45 criminals find themselves too old to keep up with the younger crowd and the cops.  Studies have not looked into it but I have a sneaking suspicion based on the increase in elderly folks coming into prisons that some of the older guys are viewing prison as an acceptable retirement community.

stay safe.

[roo_ster]

The drop in crime is pretty simple.
1. A small proportion of criminals commit a disproportionate amount of crime.
2. Chuck that slice of the criminal element into prison more often and for more time and you have an exaggerated effect on overall crime rates.

This is not responsible for the entirety, but likely the lion's share in the declining rate of violent crime.

The WoSD is definitely a part of that.  It has broken down barriers(1) to LEOs looking to nab criminals.  The WoSD also provides a backstop to more serious crime.  The gal reporter from Los Angeles wrote how a whole neighborhood knew ThugX killed VictimY, but no one was willing to testify.  Local LEOs hear of it and next time they have a choice in targeting drug raids, guess who gets their especial attention?  Yep, ThugX.  So ThugX is incarcerated for drug dealing, not murder.  Not a perfect solution, but ThugX does not menace his neighborhood for those years.

Is it worth it?  Not to me, as I live outside the rough neighborhoods.  Males sporting thug-wear around here get the stink eye and soon Johnny Law is called to check them out.  And those living in the rough neighborhoods resent the LEOs working hard to keep the neighborhoods from descending into anarchy.  





(1) Some folk call them "civil rights."

[Perd Hapley]

There was a book called 'freakonomics' that came out several years ago now that made the claim that legalization of abortions was the cause of the drop in crime in the 90s due to fewer unwanted babies being born.
Making the claim that the war on some drugs caused the decline in crime is making the same illogical  leap.

I referred to this theory in the OP, and again in post #5, but I didn't want to sidetrack the thread with another controversial subject.


[roo_ster's post]

I do find it believable that disregard for individual rights might lower the crime rate (sort of), either via WoSD, or the more heinous means of pre-crime execution (abortion). I was hoping that someone in this thread would debunk the notion, but so far, I has sad. 

So why should one NOT buy the notion that the War on Drugs didn't lower the crime rate?

[Blakenzy]

You could argue that the WoSD has sent many criminals to "university", many of which exit with masters degrees and plenty of new networks.

[brimic]

You could argue that the WoSD has sent many criminals to "university", many of which exit with masters degrees and plenty of new networks.

...and a lot of innocent people to the morgue.

[Firethorn]

I like the lead connection - ~18 years after we stopped using leaded gasoline, crime drops.  They successfully correlated the introduction of leaded with crime increases across regions and times, as well as the withdrawal with crime drops - all with the same lag.

The more leaded was used, the more crime increased, which is why suddenly the 'inner cities', with LOTS of leaded usage exposure, were high crime areas.  Today crime is back to historical differences between rural and urban, which isn't actually that much.

The rural areas haven't actually seen that much of a drop in violent crime, the densest urban areas, on the other hand...

That being said, prohibition showed us that it led to more organized violent crime, and consider that we're also 'liberalizing' drug laws lately.

As a libertarian, I'm quite happy to see both trends, of course.

[MechAg94]

The 70's and 80's saw high crime IMO due to failed bleeding heart liberal policies of going soft on criminals and punishment in general.  That trend shifted in the 80's as public opinion had changed.  Laws and convictions got tougher by the 90's and some states at least built more prisons.  Texas had some idiot federal judge telling us we couldn't go above 95% capacity in state prisons which meant county jails were overcrowded since the state couldn't take them.  They finally got that order removed in the 90's. 

70's movies like Death Wish and Dirty Harry were popular for a reason.  The attitudes and actions of the politicians portrayed in those movies were not completely made up. 

You might as well also look at when the death penalty was resumed also. 

[Firethorn]

The 70's and 80's saw high crime IMO due to failed bleeding heart liberal policies of going soft on criminals and punishment in general.

Define 'being soft'?  Evidence is that 'harsh' prisons actually lead to more recidivism than 'nice' ones.  There are plenty of states and countries out there without the death penalty, the statistics are that the death penalty is ineffective at reducing crime/murder rates.

What works is proper reform programs.  I know a lot of people here have a big desire for punishment, but really, I'd rather fix it so the prisoner is less likely to commit crimes when he gets out, reducing the chance that I'll be a victim of a crime, than I am about making sure the prisoner's life is hell on earth while incarcerated, because the latter leads to broken men who are more likely to be violent when they get out.  Along with that is proper support services when they get out. 

Remember, police, court, and prison are all expensive.  I'd like to be able to do with fewer of them.