Author Topic: More on the Ammo Shortage (Read 9075 times)

HankB · « **on:** April 25, 2009, 07:08:51 PM »

Well, the ammo shortage hit the front page of the Austin American-Statesman newspaper yesterday.

A few salient points . . .

* Longtime gun dealers say the shortage is historic.

* Prices have risen twofold or threefold since last year.

* A major local dealer: "I will tell you that supply isn't existing," he said. "I hear the conclusion that people are buying everything they can buy, and there's a lot to that, but there isn't anything out there to buy."

* The ammunition shortages have also affected law enforcement agencies across the country, particularly in smaller police and sheriff's departments.

I spoke to guy working at a local dealer, and he told me that his distributor told him that the ammo companies aren't shipping as much ammo as usual.

OK, this is a situation where "A guy told me that another guy told him that . . . " so you can take the story for what it's worth, but it seems that something other than Obama panic buying is going on. (Not quite ready to break out the tinfoil conspiracy hat, but . . .

)

Anyway, the newspaper story is here: http://www.statesman.com/search/content/news/stories/local/04/24/0424ammo.html

zahc · « **Reply #1 on:** April 25, 2009, 07:19:04 PM »

An acquaintance of mine thinks that some state or underground militia faction is stockpiling ammo for the second war between the states.

Jocassee · « **Reply #2 on:** April 25, 2009, 07:19:21 PM »

Quote from: HankB on April 25, 2009, 07:08:51 PM

I spoke to guy working at a local dealer, and he told me that his distributor told him that the ammo companies aren't shipping as much ammo as usual.

I do believe some of the milsurp is drying up. I don't think that's what he's talking about though.

bedlamite · « **Reply #3 on:** April 25, 2009, 07:39:32 PM »

A friend of mine is retired from the Federal ammunition plant in Anoka, MN, and still has family working there. I talked to him about this yesterday, he says they have called back all layoffs from the last year and everyone is working overtime. The place is literally running 24/7.

edit: stupid typos

Gewehr98 · « **Reply #4 on:** April 25, 2009, 08:07:50 PM »

I heard from a friend of a cousin that's it all part of a big conspiracy...

Bogie · « **Reply #5 on:** April 25, 2009, 08:12:10 PM »

I'm thinking that someone may be doing a little hoarding... Unca Sugah may be a trifle worried about what the Islamic Fanatics are going to try for their test on Obama... Or about maybe having to invade Iran... If they go full-bore in the middle east, they're going to need boots on the ground, which means (a) ammo consumption; and (b) a draft.

Gewehr98 · « **Reply #6 on:** April 25, 2009, 08:34:08 PM »

Ya' think?

Anybody here been tromping planet Earth long enough to remember the Y2K scare, the primer shortages, etc?

Hoarding is hoarding, with a massive induced ripple effect. You read about folks showing up at WalMart as soon as the doors open on delivery day to wipe out whatever ammo was stocked just minutes before. They're buying casefuls of white box, either because U.N. blue helmets are poised to march up their driveway, or they're afeared if they don't buy that ammo just this minute, they'll never get the opportunity again thanks to Obama's latest speech in Mexico.

So the next guy heads on over to Gander Mountain, and what do you know? Nothing, not a damned thing. There are no primers on the shelves, save for shotgun. On the ammo shelves, there's maybe some .300 Winchester Short Mag, if that's your thing - otherwise, nothing.

So you take a road trip to Cabelas, thinking maybe they have some stuff in stock. Except that all the like-minded individuals have already cleaned them out, too.

You go online to Midway, Widener's, Natchez, MidSouth, CheaperThanDirt, etc. That's when you discover that they're wiped out by all the other folks who have tried other sources, and are glomming onto whatever they can find.

Then people either wonder or get indignant when retailers and online stores place limits on the purchases of ammo and reloading components.

I've been on a quest for a 1lb canister of WW748 or H335 for the last month or so. I'm finally driving to Lomira next week, my little hole-in-the-wall gunshop confirms they have both, plus plenty of real Goex BP for my smokepoles.

My dad retired from Olin, but watches his stocks with some interest. He says Olin/Winchester is running full steam, but cannot keep up with demand. They're running 24/7, and still can't make enough.

The weather's cooled off again this weekend. I'm firing up the Lee pot to convert wheelweights into bullets. That'll save my stash of Sierra MatchKings and Berger VLDs for later on, when demand drops and supply increases, as it always does.

bedlamite · « **Reply #7 on:** April 25, 2009, 08:56:56 PM »

Quote from: Gewehr98 on April 25, 2009, 08:34:08 PM

I've been on a quest for a 1lb canister of WW748 or H335 for the last month or so. I'm finally driving to Lomira next week, my little hole-in-the-wall gunshop confirms they have both, plus plenty of real Goex BP for my smokepoles.

I stopped by Midwest this afternoon after the Fond du Lac gun show and bought 3 lbs of H335 for $17/lb, Bill's has some too, but for $24/lb. If they are both out when you get there I could probably part with a pound or two of 748, I've got an 8lb jug that's about half full yet. All I use it for is my 30-30.

The cheapest I saw primers at the gun show today was $50/1K. One guy had several thousand and was asking $90/1K, I don't think he sold too many.

Gewehr98 · « **Reply #8 on:** April 25, 2009, 09:07:03 PM »

I've been hankering for WW748 for my 7mm Rimmed International handcannon, and it's also one of my favorites, as is H335, for .223 Remington.

I might get a pound or so of Varget as a substitute if Bill's sells out by the time I arrive.

I've heard good things about Varget.

Which reminds me, it says Midwestern Shooters Supply is also in Lomira.

Are they co-located with Bill's, or just neighbors?

Jocassee · « **Reply #9 on:** April 25, 2009, 09:07:32 PM »

Honestly, I'm changing my question from "when will the panic stop?" to "will it stop EVER?"

bedlamite · « **Reply #10 on:** April 25, 2009, 09:19:03 PM »

Sorry, no Varget to be had at either Midwest or Bill's, I asked for that before the H335

. Midwest is Southeast of the 67/41 bridge right behind the gas station, you can't miss it. That's the place I check first, they usually have the best prices.

White Horseradish · « **Reply #11 on:** April 25, 2009, 09:51:05 PM »

I haven't heard about Federal rehiring those people they laid off not too long ago... I wonder why.

Headless Thompson Gunner · « **Reply #12 on:** April 25, 2009, 09:58:42 PM »

Does anyone know what the ammo production output is? Are they still producing as much as ever before? Are they producing the same mix of calibers?

Is the military buying more now than usual? It seems possible that as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have dragged on, the military has begun to use up their normal stockpiles and have had to contract with the ammo makers to produce more. That would leave the ammo makers with less production capacity to devote to producing ammo for the civilian market. Combine that with the surge in demand and it's easy to see how they could be completely out of ammo everywhere.

At least that makes sense. I have no idea if that's what's actually happening.

MechAg94 · « **Reply #13 on:** April 25, 2009, 10:11:03 PM »

Personally, I think it is a combination of hoarding plus a whole bunch of new gun owners. Not all those AR-15's sold since November were to gunnies with 17 AR's at home. Many were to people who always wanted one, but never got it. Those people finally got their rifle and now can't find ammo and mags were short.

I have a friend who had one rifle and no pistols in September last year. He now has 3 or 4 pistols and bought an AR. He is like me though and looking around and buying ammo where it is still cheaper. At least one shop locally still has cases of 223 in stock, but they want ~$600 a case or more.

I don't know when this will blow over. Every time someone in D.C. starts talking about gun control again, it just inspires a few more people to go out and buy.

Bob F. · « **Reply #14 on:** April 25, 2009, 10:23:15 PM »

Guy at the gunshow today was asking, and getting, $40/box for Magtech .380fmj!!!!!!!!!! Another had some powder but not much selection. He also had about the only .38 ammo at the place, bulk reloads, didn't ask price. Ultimate had some Hornady Critical Defense in 110 gr, something like $21.00/box (20 or 25?) and he always has the best prices. I can't find .38 bullets. Haven't seen Varget in ages.

Bob
PS: +1 what Mech Ag said.

lee n. field · « **Reply #15 on:** April 25, 2009, 10:41:22 PM »

Quote

but there isn't anything out there to buy."

At le Mart de Wal today, they were totally out of metallic cartridges except some .22 CB caps. Two shelves completely empty.

seeker_two · « **Reply #16 on:** April 26, 2009, 12:09:08 AM »

Michael Bane (on Downrange Radio ) mentioned that one ammo manufacturer was laying off workers despite record business....anyone know anything about that?

Waitone · « **Reply #17 on:** April 26, 2009, 01:28:15 PM »

I'm following the ammo shortage from a professional interest standpoint. I must say what I know is not adding up. A few random thoughts in no particular order:

?--Military demand being fulfilled by captive producers supplemented by foreign sources like Israel and Taiwan.
?--Can military demands be eliminated as a contributing factor?

?
?--Domestic producers (like maybe three majors) are running flat out.
?--With demand in US running sky-high, why have offshore producers NOT backfilled the demand?

One would think in this age of global production offshore producers would fall over themselves supplying US demand.
?--Shortages are not limited to assembled ammo. Components are in short supply. Primers, projectiles and powder are in short supply, available domestically and overseas, and demand is not be backfilled from foreign sources. Latest internet rumor is primers are being held up in customs by fed.gov.
?--Shortages are not limited to market segments. LE gets the same treatment as does anyone else. That factor tells me market problems are systemic.

?--So by most standards we here in the US face unprecedented demand for assembled ammo, yet I see no market balancing action taking place. I will admit maybe I'm not looking in all the right places, but now it appears we face shortages of such magnitude or nature that can not be balanced.
?--We live in a global kinda world where we are told we can produce anything, anywhere and should be able to get anything from anywhere. If so, how come foreign sources have not backfilled US demand? Is US fed.gov stopping imports? No evidence has surfaced so far. Or are host countries of foreign producers hindering export. Or are we seeing the impact of various anti-gun agreements on other countries.
?--Another possibility is demand in the US is grossly understated. In other words the 30 to 40% increase in firearms purchases (as detailed by FBI) is generating a far greater increase in ammo purchases, greater than any industry's ability to respond to. Does the increase in firearms purchases translate directly into a substantial increase in demand for ammo? Is it possible firearms purchases are forcing a huge increase in ammo purchase (like maybe double)? If so, why no foreign backfill.
?--On the domestic supplier side, are we looking at an historical matching of supply and demand. Market demands have been predictable and relatively stable for a long while which would allow US producers to match production with anticipated demand. The surge has caught US producers flatfooted. Due to technology limitations they would be able to handle incremental increases but not step changes. Again, we question the lack of foreign backfilling.

Nothing of what I've seen so far is making any sense which tells me other factors are present but unknown. Drivers of those unknown factors is something else we don't know. What we do know does not account for what we see. The fact that ammo shortage tracks a surge in gun purchases is not surprising. One would expect it to happen. We'll have to see if ammo demand drops when gun purchases drop. If not then we can conclude something really weird is is going on.

The lack of foreign suppliers stepping up to backfill unmet demand is a real puzzlement.

Gewehr98 · « **Reply #18 on:** April 26, 2009, 03:07:57 PM »

Quote

Latest internet rumor is primers are being held up in customs by fed.gov.

If so, those would be Wolf primers, which are but a drop in the bucket for U.S. reloading component primer demand.

I'd call it an internet rumor, alright. Other sources say that Wolf is just running behind a month or two, not unlike all the other ammo and component manufacturers.

There's a combination of factors, the sum of which easily equates to our current situation.

Hank Williams is even getting into it:

http://www.nashvillecitypaper.com/content/city-business/hank-can%E2%80%99t-reload-ammo-shortage

Large U.S. Military and law enforcement ammo orders through Lake City and FedRemChester displacing commercial ammo are but one aspect.

Fear of the current administration, and the hoarding it created, is another, probably the biggest.

Even the little administrative blip that DLA sparked over surplus military cartridge brass had ripple effects, forcing places like Georgia Arms and Sharch Manufacturing to suspend sales of their reloaded .223 and .308 ammo.

The military's current quandry over the tungsten training ammo problem means they have to shift gears. The ammo they already have may not be usable at all, save for pulldown of brass and powder. More training ammo from Lake City and St. Marks, please!

Thanks to Afghanistan and Iraq, I'd wager a huge amount of that wonderful steel-cased 7.62x39 and 5.45x39 ammo we used to enjoy for dirt cheap is being diverted to training and equipping the militaries and police agencies of those countries. That means less for us.

I saw the same things happen during the Y2K scare, and in lesser forms during the Clinton re-election and when somebody started a rumor about primer shelf life.

People are getting all bent out of shape because domestic manufacturers RemFedChester aren't buying more equipment and hiring additional employees to make up the difference in orders.

That's a double-edged sword for them, and why should they invest in expanding infrastructure when the surge will probably subsist soon enough? They're already at 3 shifts, 7 days a week. Taking out a long-term note for a short-term spike is by no means a Good Idea.

I liken it to the whole gasoline issue of a year ago. Gas rose above $4.00/gallon, and people throttled way back on their driving, reducing demand. People who absolutely needed to drive around a lot at that price continued to do so, but many decided to just drive less, consolidate trips, carpool, walk, bike, etc. So many curtailed their usage that it dropped demand, supplies increased, and prices fell before "stabilizing" at the current $2.00/gallon mark. Decrease the demand on ammo, and I'll bet prices will also drop as supplies increase. However, unlike gasoline, you can hoard ammo for decades, and you're not worried about the current administration banning your evil black automobile - so it'll be a while before the surge in ammo subsides.

More on what's happening with the ammo shortage here:

http://grantcunningham.com/blog_files/1f0a89deff589f5706c99bd0d0984930-512.html

Regolith · « **Reply #19 on:** April 26, 2009, 09:06:00 PM »

Quote from: Bob F. on April 25, 2009, 10:23:15 PM

Guy at the gunshow today was asking, and getting, $40/box for Magtech .380fmj!!!!!!!!!!

I'm surprised he had any at all.

From what I've heard, many ammo manufacturers use the same machinery for making 9mm and .380, and they don't make the .380 until they have reached their 9mm quota. And since they haven't been able to keep up with 9mm production, they haven't been making any .380 at all. Hence, .380 has been in really, really short supply, even though it's not as popular as 9mm.

Gewehr98 · « **Reply #20 on:** April 26, 2009, 09:51:44 PM »

Yes.

It's been called die time, and the less-popular chamberings take a back burner with respect to die time until the more popular ones get their orders completed.

Ammo manufacturers are not configured to assemble all types of ammo simultaneously. The overhead to maintain that kind of capability would be horrendous.

seeker_two · « **Reply #21 on:** April 27, 2009, 06:37:11 AM »

Here's a question that I've heard a time or two recently....

Why should the ammo companies fall all over themselves to make supplying ammo to a gov't (or gov'ts) who are against RKBA for the people their number one priority instead of supplying US citizens with the ammo?

(....the US gov't being one of those gov'ts mentioned above....)

Discuss freely......

HankB · « **Reply #22 on:** April 27, 2009, 08:54:51 AM »

Quote from: seeker_two on April 27, 2009, 06:37:11 AM

Why should the ammo companies fall all over themselves to make supplying ammo to a gov't (or gov'ts) who are against RKBA for the people their number one priority instead of supplying US citizens with the ammo?

Because no other single customer spends as much $$$ buying ammo?

AJ Dual · « **Reply #23 on:** April 27, 2009, 09:47:06 AM »

In a nutshell, this is a simple matter of econ 101, supply vs. demand.

Add to that all the other stresses placed on supply, .mil contracts, foreign .mil contracts on Russian makers, new buyers, the "panic", and the modern Walmart-style push for lean-n-mean JIT "Just In Time" distribution/stocking models.

You just have to wait for everyone to get stocked up and calm down. That's it. A joke by Johnny Carson created a toilet paper shortage a few decades back. It's not hard to see how it could happen with something as politicaly charged as ammo.

Despite the record demand and shortages, unless EVERY hoarder/buyer became a weekly multi-caliber plinker, and/or participated in high-volume shooting sports like USPSA and three-gun plus the practice, there still is not enough demand long-term for any of the makers to take a gamble on the costs of added tooling to meet the demand.

The instant the ammo rush abates will be the instant the ammo makers aren't making enough to increase capacity beyond 100% of what they have now.

I've got two levels of ammo in my head.

1. What I'm comfortable with having on hand for a decent amount of recreational shooting. By that standard my stock is miserable.

2. What I'm comfortable with having for any realistic SHTF scenario/self-defense. By that standard I have several more times than I'd ever expect to shoot without me and my family being dead and burned out of our house.

MechAg94 · « **Reply #24 on:** April 27, 2009, 10:45:54 AM »

I am fairly happy with my stash too. Also, if you keep your eyes open, you will find reasonable deals occasionally, but they sell out real quick. I finally got 400 rounds of Privi match 223 from Wideners who had it for sale online a few weeks back. There is a gun range locally that is selling 30/30 for $11 a box. They apparently bought a whole crap load a while back and are still getting selling it off. I might go back and buy some more if they are not out.

The way I see it, there are a large number of gun guys out there that will hoard ammo at the drop of a hat. If a rumor on a caliber goes out, they go buy 10 cases or more. It happened for AK ammo just a few years ago. In the last 8 months, there have been a large number of rumors floating, real increases in demand due to gun sales, and a fairly anti-gun President taking office. This situation ain't changing any time soon.

The question I had: How long does it take an ammo/components importer to react to changes in demand and get more supply delivered? How far ahead do they schedule their shipments overseas? I bet it takes a while.

News:

Author Topic: More on the Ammo Shortage (Read 9075 times)