Illinois carry status?

[drewtam]

This is a bad, bad bill.  HB997 or let's go over the cliff.   

From postings from the lobbying leadership, it sounds like we've been played. No big surprise there. But they have suddenly become convinced that we do not have the votes to maintain leverage and go past the court deadline. That means 997 and any other bill we support is dead.

Either the downstate D's accept this awful deal, or Madigan will use every lever of power he has to force Kwame's bill to pass.

I got caught up in the court decision leverage optimism like everyone else, but reality is now setting in. This bill is not the end of the world, and is certainly a step in the right direction.

[Scout26]

And we get screwed again.  Make my words, this will be used to prevent carry and it won't get "better".  This is Illinois, not other states.

Well once the issue the injunction,we'll have a few months of court carry, until they get this system setup and then deny permits to everyone. 

[lee n. field]

And we get screwed again.

Eh?  Did something happen while I was on a service call?  Or did it all fall apart?

  Make my words, this will be used to prevent carry and it won't get "better".  This is Illinois, not other states.

Well once the issue the injunction,we'll have a few months of court carry, until they get this system setup and then deny permits to everyone. 

[drewtam]

Bill passes the House.
85/30/1

[Scout26]

Go ahead and read it.  The "Special Board" will ensure that no one gets a permit.  Even if the ISP ever gets around to certifying any instructors.

We got played and then screwed.

 

[Matthew Carberry]

Go ahead and read it.  The "Special Board" will ensure that no one gets a permit.  Even if the ISP ever gets around to certifying any instructors.

We got played and then screwed.

 

How will the Special Board -do- that, exactly?  Law Enforcement has to justify the initial denial and criteria are given as to what constitutes that.  The denied gets a copy of that justification, it isn't a "star chamber."  The appeal process to the Special Board isn't open to public records but the denied gets copies of all the paperwork.  The lack of "public record" is meaningless if the people denied get handed their evidence.  The first hint of arbitrary denials and you have a raft of lawsuits and Posner (and the Legislature) jumping back in.

LE will have to set up classes post-haste or, as above, Posner steps back in. There's no room for foot dragging in a state where Chicago has already been slapped for merely requiring people to drive 30 minutes to go to a range.

None of this is somehow fixed in time forever.

Look at the actual history of shall-issue nationwide at the beginning of the wave in the early '90s, none of these requirements, except the public transportation thing which is vulnerable to a "what about the poor their "progressives" shame campaign, are anything new. It took a few years but most of those 40(+1 now) states gradually got rid of them to get where we are now.

Classes will be a couple hundred bucks at the start, then go down as more trainers get licensed (assuming the various organizations don't start subsidizing them to boost permit numbers early).  The state has already as I recall reading been given a 90 day window to create a joint FOID/Carry card so issuance can start immediately.

The training requirement has a silver lining as states that don't demand quid pro quo will likely honor IL's license.  Reciprocity is something that gets added next session.

Feet will have to be held to the fire and it will take a few years (like everywhere else) but for goodness sake quit with the preemptive cynicism and gloom and doom. IL has an out-dated law right now compared to the status quo, but they got a late start.

[Ron]

It still has to pass the Senate and be signed by Pat Quinn, not a done deal according to public radio here in Chicagoland.

[Scout26]

How will the Special Board -do- that, exactly?  Law Enforcement has to justify the initial denial and criteria are given as to what constitutes that.  The denied gets a copy of that justification, it isn't a "star chamber."  The appeal process to the Special Board isn't open to public records but the denied gets copies of all the paperwork.  The lack of "public record" is meaningless if the people denied get handed their evidence.  The first hint of arbitrary denials and you have a raft of lawsuits and Posner (and the Legislature) jumping back in.

LE will have to set up classes post-haste or, as above, Posner steps back in. There's no room for foot dragging in a state where Chicago has already been slapped for merely requiring people to drive 30 minutes to go to a range.

None of this is somehow fixed in time forever.

Look at the actual history of shall-issue nationwide at the beginning of the wave in the early '90s, none of these requirements, except the public transportation thing which is vulnerable to a "what about the poor their "progressives" shame campaign, are anything new. It took a few years but most of those 40(+1 now) states gradually got rid of them to get where we are now.

Classes will be a couple hundred bucks at the start, then go down as more trainers get licensed (assuming the various organizations don't start subsidizing them to boost permit numbers early).  The state has already as I recall reading been given a 90 day window to create a joint FOID/Carry card so issuance can start immediately.

The training requirement has a silver lining as states that don't demand quid pro quo will likely honor IL's license.  Reciprocity is something that gets added next session.

Feet will have to be held to the fire and it will take a few years (like everywhere else) but for goodness sake quit with the preemptive cynicism and gloom and doom. IL has an out-dated law right now compared to the status quo, but they got a late start.

You absolutely right.  I mean I've only lived in this state since 1983.  I have no idea as to what goes on with the politics in this state and how things really work.   My apologies.

[Ron]

At one point I was getting 3-4 emails a day from ISRA and the NRA-ILA.

These last few days I've gotten next to nothing other than an ISRA email declaring their "no position" on the house bill that just passed.

Can this bill make it through the much more liberal Senate and get signed by Quinn?

I'm with scout on this, I'd rather we went over the cliff than hope to make any progress on a bad bill in the future.

The bill requires an awful lot of time and money to (maybe) get permission to exercise a right in very limited circumstances.

I think we would be better off with a seachange dramatic event like court carry.  

[drewtam]

Ron, I think everyone would prefer to have the leverage of actually going over the deadline. But our lobby leadership is now convinced that Madigan has the power to flip the votes to prevent that. Madigan has enough party power to kill bills in the other chamber, right in front of the Senate President.

If we don't have the leverage, then we either get this or Kwame's no-carry bill.

The best we can hope for now is that Cullerton (Senate Pres)+Quinn (Gov) get into an internecine power struggle against Madigan (Speaker of the House and Party Leader) which kills all the bills and we go over the deadline. But I give that really low odds.

The only benefit of Kwame's bill is that it has an outside chance of pissing off the Appeals Court when we sue again. But I wouldn't want to put money on it.

[Scout26]

All I hear is that "otherwise we'd get Kwame's bill".  Really?!?!?   That enough of the 68 that voted for HB997 would flip?   Then what's fuckign point of having elections?  If what Mike Madigan wants is what Mike Madigan gets, then the ILGA is just a big *expletive deleted*ing joke and state .gov is a big farce.

Yet, we'll be able to "fix" this later-on.   

Well which is it boys and girls.  Mike Madigan rules with an iron fist or we can improve this later?  'Cause it sure can't be both. 

[Matthew Carberry]

You absolutely right.  I mean I've only lived in this state since 1983.  I have no idea as to what goes on with the politics in this state and how things really work.   My apologies.

You're right, I don't know the ins and outs of IL politics, but I lived through AK going from no carry, to a shall issue bill not unlike yours, with steady improvements made until we got Con Carry, real Con Carry in just 10 years.  I've followed to one degree or another the same pattern take place in every state that got shall issue around that time until now. So I have personal knowledge and experience on this particular issue.

This bill gets premption and removes home rule super-majority requirements. Those are the keys. Is it perfect, of course not, it's IL, but those two things will allow the pro-gun side to fix things step by step.

I also know "going over the cliff" is con carry in name only. All the current AWBs and such stand due to no preemption. Every locale, county by county and town by town is free to pass any restriction on time, place, and manner they think they can get away with. Every Bloomberg wishlist item will be pushed and most will pass and you won't be able to stop it. Any corrective attempt in the future will still face a super-majority requirement and you won't have -any- leverage because you'll have gained theoretical con carry.

Sure, you won't need a permit, but you won't actually be carrying off your own property without having to check a telephone book of regulations.

The perfect is the enemy of the good (and improvable). The goal is to get what most shall-issue states have now but we can't ignore the time and work and, yes, temporary "compromise" it took to get here.

Edited to remove me being a *expletive deleted*bag and making this into an "us and them" pissing match. Scout, I respect you and disagree, that's as far as it should go. I apologize for talking to you like you're ignorant. It is utterly uncalled for and wrong.

I really hope you can get a better bill in the Senate or improve the one you get like I think you can, and I hope I'm dead wrong about post June 9 if you don't. There's nothing any of us would like more than to see IL go from a hole in the Carry map to a big F-U to the anti-gunners.

[drewtam]

Scout, I think you meant those questions to be rhetorical, to build courage to face down Madigan. Unfortunately the answer to each is...

Yes, really.
Yes, he really could get downstate Dems to vote in a bad may issue because he has control of the party.
In Illinois, there isn't much point to the phony elections.
Yes, this state really is a big joke. 1 party rule = Party boss makes the rules. Illinois is a dying state, and not even the most liberal concealed carry laws would change that. Plan accordingly.


Define "later".
If by "later" we'll get everything we want next year through straight legislative process. Not a chance.

If by later you mean 5-10yrs when Madigan retires or dies (he is currently 71) we start making faster progress, then possibly.
If by later you mean every couple years we nibble away at some of the problems, and sue the public transport ban and sue the "poll tax" and win more court cases. Then yeah, we have some outside chance to fix it.

[Scout26]

It took 20+ years and a court order to get this.  It will not be improved.  Maybe in 50-100 years, but not within the next 10-20.  Not as long as the Chicago Machine still controls Springfield.  Anyone that says or thinks otherwise is whistling past the graveyard.

This is all we'll get.  Madigan and the Democrat Machine won't allow any changes (except bad ones.)  

And HB997 wasn't "Perfect", it too was a patchwork of compromises.  It required 8 hours of training, $100 fee and quite few prohibited places.  But it did allow carry on public transport , NRA instructors, along with open and concealed carry.

Perfect would be full-blown con-carry.  No FOID card, no training, no fee.   "Court carry" would still require a FOID card.  

And could the NRA/ISRA sue every unit of .gov that enacted a carry ban.  No.  They only need to sue one, maybe two or three and have those struck down.  The rest fall like dominoes.   Plus if you have gunnies show up at meetings where TPTB are discussing such bans, dropping the hint that they be hit with a 1983 lawsuit (using the 1960's Civil Rights movement as an analogy), might be enough to discourage them from voting for it.  

Yeah, that might require a few years, but each day more and more people carry, and Illinois doesn't turn into the Wild West (and crap in Chicago starts to decline) it then pretty much becomes a non-issue.

[Perd Hapley]

http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?section=news/local&id=9116604

[Scout26]

A bit of Political Theater here yesterday.  

http://new.livestream.com/blueroomstream/events/2135929  Senate Executive Committee chaired by Don Harmon.  Senate President Cullerton is behind him and to his left.   Testimony on LTC/CCW starts at about 1:50:00.

SB2193 (The Preemption May-Issue Bill, which the NRA/ISRA have taken a neutral position.) which passed the house 85-30 was killed in the Senate Executive committee by a 10-4 vote, so it won't go to the Senate floor for a vote.  

SB183 (The No Preemption May-Issue Bill, which the NRA/ISRA oppose.) passed the Senate Executive committee by a 8-6 vote and will go (maybe) to senate for a vote, if called.   However, it is dead in the House.

Both bills, however, will be vetoed by Our Beloved Governor, Pat "Three County"* Quinn.  

They still have a budget to pass and pension reform to deal with before the session ends at midnight on Friday.  Those are HUGE contentious issues, LTC/CCW will be lost in the background and nothing will pass.  The next session is the Fall veto session, unless either Quinn or Madigan AND Cullerton call a special session to deal with one issue, again, not happening.  They are not going to call a special session to pass something they hate.

Yes, I know that a bunch of people are saying there's already a deal in place and this is just political kabuki.  I don't think there is a deal, nor is this a show put on for our benefit.   Madigan pissed off Cullerton when he went over to the Senate and twisted arms to kill a different May-Issue (the first Raoul bill) Senate CCW bill.  Yesterday was payback, in that Madigan had endorsed SB2193 and worked to get it passed in the house.  

This is a gang war.  It's Capone vs. O'Banion all over again for control of the statehouse and Illinois.

There are bigger fish to fry and LTC/CCW just happens to be the bone these two dogs are going to fight over to prove dominance.


So over the "cliff" we shall go.


* There are 102 counties in Illinois.  Pat Quinn won three, and became Governor.  I sure wish we had and Electoral College for State-wide offices.

[AmbulanceDriver]

 

[Scout26]

Here's the countdown clock. 

http://free.timeanddate.com/countdown/i3eswmk5/n64/cf111/cm0/cu5/ct5/cs0/ca0/cr0/ss1/cac00f/cpc000/pcf00/tcf00/fs200/szw576/szh243/tatThe%20Conceal%20Carry%20Cliff/tac000/tptTime%20since%20Event%20started%20in/tpc000/mac000/mpc000/iso2013-06-09T13:00:00

[lee n. field]

Both bills, however, will be vetoed by Our Beloved Governor, Pat "Three County"* Quinn. 

[TechMan]

Did you steal that off AJ's facebook page?

[lee n. field]

random hit on "over the cliff thelma and louise"

Ten days, eight hours.  tick, tick, tick....

[Gewehr98]

If the timer makes it to Zero Hour, then it's Constitutional Carry for Illinois?

[drewtam]

If the timer makes it to Zero Hour, then it's Constitutional Carry for Illinois?

For the uninformed, pretty close.

For those that pay attention...No, it becomes Fed Court ordered FOID carry, with local cities making up any rules they want (max of misdemeanor).

[Scout26]

For the uninformed, pretty close.

For those that pay attention...No, it becomes Fed Court ordered FOID carry, with local cities making up any rules they want (max of misdemeanor).

Yep, Not ConCarry, CourtCarry.

However, the first folks that get arrested/fined for violating some home rule ordinance will find themselves explaining to a Federal Judge why blacks have to take a literacy test to vote, they are infringing on peoples 2A rights.  (See: Heller, MacDonald, Ezell, Shepard and Moore)

[AJ Dual]

Yep, Not ConCarry, CourtCarry.

However, the first folks that get arrested/fined for violating some home rule ordinance will find themselves explaining to a Federal Judge why blacks have to take a literacy test to vote, they are infringing on peoples 2A rights.  (See: Heller, MacDonald, Ezell, Shepard and Moore)

Yeah, that's the pro and the con of it.

The patchwork of ordinances, and the bigger cities being heavy handed with the usual "you can't fight city hall" tactics will dissuade the majority  from carrying.

In the long run, there's potential for Alan Gura types to have a field day, and perhaps refine RKBA with additional case law in our favor in the future.

My understanding is that Chicago has been making noises behind the scenes that they find going over the cliff preferable to losing home-rule on guns overall.