I'm hoping these forecasts aren't very good/accurate.
Sounds about right, or at least it's similar to what I've been spouting. Quarter 1 still has post holiday sales and other positive stuff that will moderate the virus stuff. Quarter 2 is when I expect all the bad news from supply chains, loss of revenue because people weren't doing anything except buying toilet paper (Charmin stock should be up 10,000%), etc.
I believe quarter 3 will have very good news because people will have been out doing stuff in the Summer, flying and cruising again, and supply chains should have had a chance to get caught up. I expect the market to rally. As I said elsewhere, quarter 3 announcements will be VERY close to the election, so whether Trump gets any benefits from it, or if he gets dragged down by quarter 2, will be an interesting timing issue.