Author Topic: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...  (Read 46280 times)

Desertdog

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'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« on: December 15, 2008, 01:52:50 PM »
From the next to last paragraph in the story.  Doesn't make sense to me.
Quote
While skeptics are already using it as evidence of some kind of cooling trend, it actually illustrates how fast the world is warming.


Obama left with little time to curb global warming
By SETH BORENSTEIN
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081214/D952LKP00.html

WASHINGTON (AP) - When Bill Clinton took office in 1993, global warming was a slow-moving environmental problem that was easy to ignore. Now it is a ticking time bomb that President-elect Barack Obama can't avoid.

Since Clinton's inauguration, summer Arctic sea ice has lost the equivalent of Alaska, California and Texas. The 10 hottest years on record have occurred since Clinton's second inauguration. Global warming is accelerating. Time is close to running out, and Obama knows it.

"The time for delay is over; the time for denial is over," he said on Tuesday after meeting with former Vice President Al Gore, who won a Nobel Peace Prize for his work on global warming. "We all believe what the scientists have been telling us for years now that this is a matter of urgency and national security and it has to be dealt with in a serious way."

But there are powerful political and economic realities that must be quickly overcome for Obama to succeed. Despite the urgency he expresses, it's not at all clear that he and Congress will agree on an approach during a worldwide financial crisis in time to meet some of the more crucial deadlines.

Obama is pushing changes in the way Americans use energy, and produce greenhouse gases, as part of what will be a massive economic stimulus. He called it an opportunity "to re-power America."

After years of inaction on global warming, 2009 might be different. Obama replaces a president who opposed mandatory cuts of greenhouse gas pollution and it appears he will have a willing Congress. Also, next year, diplomats will try to agree on a major new international treaty to curb the gases that promote global warming.

"We need to start in January making significant changes," Gore said in a recent telephone interview with The Associated Press. "This year coming up is the most important opportunity the world has ever had to make progress in really solving the climate crisis."

Scientists are increasingly anxious, talking more often and more urgently about exceeding "tipping points."

"We're out of time," Stanford University biologist Terry Root said. "Things are going extinct."

U.S. emissions have increased by 20 percent since 1992. China has more than doubled its carbon dioxide pollution in that time. World carbon dioxide emissions have grown faster than scientists' worst-case scenarios. Methane, the next most potent greenhouse gas, suddenly is on the rise again and scientists fear that vast amounts of the trapped gas will escape from thawing Arctic permafrost.

The amount of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has already pushed past what some scientists say is the safe level.

In the early 1990s, many scientists figured that the world was about a century away from a truly dangerous amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, said Mike MacCracken, who was a top climate scientist in the Clinton administration. But as they studied the greenhouse effect further, scientists realized that harmful changes kick in at far lower levels of carbon dioxide than they thought. Now some scientists, but not all, say the safe carbon dioxide level for Earth is about 10 percent below what it is now.

Gore called the situation "the equivalent of a five-alarm fire that has to be addressed immediately."

Scientists fear that what's happening with Arctic ice melt will be amplified so that ominous sea level rise will occur sooner than they expected. They predict Arctic waters could be ice-free in summers, perhaps by 2013, decades earlier than they thought only a few years ago.

In December 2009, diplomats are charged with forging a new treaty replacing the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which set limits on greenhouse gases, and which the United States didn'tratify. This time European officials have high expectations for the U.S. to take the lead. But many experts don't see Congress passing a climate bill in time because of pressing economic and war issues.

"The reality is, it may take more than the first year to get it all done," Senate Energy Committee Chairman Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., said recently.

Complicating everything is the worldwide financial meltdown. Frank Maisano, a Washington energy specialist and spokesman who represents coal-fired utilities and refineries, sees the poor economy as "a huge factor" that could stop everything. That's because global warming efforts are aimed at restricting coal power, which is cheap. That would likely mean higher utility bills and more damage to ailing economies that depend on coal production, he said.

Obama is stacking his Cabinet and inner circle with advocates who have pushed for deep mandatory cuts in greenhouse gas pollution and even with government officials who have achieved results at the local level.

The President-elect has said that one of the first things he will do when he gets to Washington is grant California and other states permission to control car tailpipe emissions, something the Bush administration denied.

And though congressional action may take time, the incoming Congress will be more inclined to act on global warming. In the House, liberal California Democrat Henry Waxman's unseating of Michigan Rep. John Dingell - a staunch defender of Detroit automakers - as head of the House Energy and Commerce Committee was a sign that global warming will be on the fast track.

Senate Environment and Public Works Chairman Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., vowed to push two global warming bills starting in January: one to promote energy efficiency as an economic stimulus and the other to create a cap-and-trade system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from utilities. "The time is now," she wrote in a Dec. 8 letter to Obama.

Mother Nature, of course, is oblivious to the federal government's machinations. Ironically, 2008 is on pace to be a slightly cooler year in a steadily rising temperature trend line. Experts say it's thanks to a La Nina weather variation. While skeptics are already using it as evidence of some kind of cooling trend, it actually illustrates how fast the world is warming.

The average global temperature in 2008 is likely to wind up slightly under 57.9 degrees Fahrenheit, about a tenth of a degree cooler than last year. When Clinton was inaugurated, 57.9 easily would have been the warmest year on record. Now, that temperature would qualify as the ninth warmest year.

---

Associated Press writer Dina Cappiello contributed to this report.

Waitone

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #1 on: December 15, 2008, 03:57:02 PM »
 :O  You're kiddin', right?  Please tell me "educated" people don't think this way.
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grampster

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #2 on: December 15, 2008, 04:02:05 PM »
Shhhhhhhhhh, quiet.......If you listen very carefully you will hear the rumble of hobnailed boots.
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Nitrogen

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #3 on: December 15, 2008, 04:09:12 PM »
We mock what we do not understand.
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makattak

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #4 on: December 15, 2008, 04:10:27 PM »
We mock what we do not understand.

No, I ask questions and learn about things I do not understand.

I mock the things I understand and recognize for their foolishness.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

Fly320s

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2008, 04:17:09 PM »
Global warming is caused by the heat generated from the left trying to spin the facts.
Islamic sex dolls.  Do they blow themselves up?

Scout26

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2008, 04:23:26 PM »

"We're out of time," Stanford University biologist Terry Root said. "Things are going extinct."

Last I checked 99.99% of all the species that have ever lived on the earth have gone extinct.....

Sorry, Terry but your doom and gloom won't fly....
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


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El Tejon

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2008, 04:28:08 PM »
This stuff is right out of 1984.

War is peace. :lol:
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El Tejon

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2008, 04:35:16 PM »
Quote
We're out of time," Stanford University biologist Terry Root said. "Things are going extinct."

Ummm, yeah, but at least we are replacing these "things" that are going extinct from all this "warming".

Bid to name your new critter (if my bid wins, I'm calling the bat the "Irwin Maximus")=>http://www.sciam.com/blog/60-second-science/post.cfm?id=name-that-speciesafter-yourself-pur-2008-12-09

Don't critters like it warm, like, you know, plants?  Snow and ice is called "God's Lysol" for a reason, it kills everything.  How would a warmer earf be worse for animal and mankind?

Too bad Global Warming is rubbish, the Midwest could use some warmth right now.

I do not smoke pot, wear Wookie suits, live in my mom's basement, collect unemployment checks or eat Cheetoes, therefore I am not a Ron Paul voter.

Nitrogen

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2008, 04:35:22 PM »
No, I ask questions and learn about things I do not understand.

I mock the things I understand and recognize for their foolishness.
You know we're in a La Niña climate cycle, right?  You know what La Niña is?

Colder than normal temps in the northwest?  Warmer than normal in the southeast?

Do you also know that increased frequency of La Niña and El Niño events can be modeled due to increased Co2 in the atmosphere?  These events are nature's way of dealign with increased heat dumped into the system.

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PTK

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #10 on: December 15, 2008, 04:38:30 PM »
You know we're in a La Niña climate cycle, right?  You know what La Niña is?

Colder than normal temps in the northwest?  Warmer than normal in the southeast?

Do you also know that increased frequency of La Niña and El Niño events can be modeled due to increased Co2 in the atmosphere?  These events are nature's way of dealign with increased heat dumped into the system.

Hippy.




 :lol:



In all seriousness, there are too many factors to accurately predict long-term global trends. Our sample size is too small, for one... but more importantly, how about all the tiny little things that CAN happen, are modeled to happen, but don't? How about the things that aren't modeled but do?
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Scout26

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #11 on: December 15, 2008, 04:40:42 PM »
Four words for you Nitro.....

Sun Spots

Water Vapor

Neither of which are modelled in the "ClimateChanger-puter".

Global Woerming is a false religion......
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

Iain

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Nitrogen

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2008, 04:54:23 PM »
Four words for you Nitro.....

Sun Spots

Nah.  The sun was emitting less energy 4 billion years ago than it is now, yet for a lot of that time, it was a lot warmer than it is now.

Analysis of ice cores show strong correlation in the amounts of co2 in the atmosphere and global temperature.  Less so than sunspots.  There is no shown corrleation between solar cycles and global climate changes.

Quote

Water Vapor

Water vapor in the air has been steady over time, so doesn't correlate to any changes in the climate.
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HankB

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2008, 05:05:42 PM »
Quote from: Desertdog
From the next to last paragraph in the story.  Doesn't make sense to me.
Quote
While skeptics are already using it as evidence of some kind of cooling trend, it actually illustrates how fast the world is warming.
I guess you missed The Day After Tomorrow, a movie which showed how global warming caused a new Ice Age almost over night. (The movie HAD to be good, because Algore lifted CGI scenes from it to use in HIS movie!)
Quote
Analysis of ice cores show strong correlation in the amounts of co2 in the atmosphere and global temperature.
I believe I read that CO2 went up after the temperature rose . . . correlation is not causation.
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MechAg94

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #15 on: December 15, 2008, 05:12:20 PM »
I have always read that CO2 has lagged temperature changes.  It has not preceded them.  That doesn't say much of anything about CO2 as a cause of GW. 
« Last Edit: December 15, 2008, 05:15:43 PM by MechAg94 »
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Manedwolf

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #16 on: December 15, 2008, 05:13:30 PM »
I guess you missed The Day After Tomorrow, a movie which showed how global warming caused a new Ice Age almost over night. (The movie HAD to be good, because Algore lifted CGI scenes from it to use in HIS movie!)I believe I read that CO2 went up after the temperature rose . . . correlation is not causation.

That movie was so stupid at every turn that it made me angry.

Even when the Russian freighter bumped against the building, I was foolishly thinking of practical terms. "Great! A freighter designed for travel in the cold north sea. They'll get on that instead, secure and dog all the hatches, go belowdecks, and start one of the engines at idle power for electrical power and warmth, there's lots of fuel and probably provisions." But, of course, no. 
« Last Edit: December 15, 2008, 05:17:11 PM by Manedwolf »

MechAg94

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #17 on: December 15, 2008, 05:17:24 PM »
There is also the issue I heard about that the GW contribution of CO2 decreases in a near logarithmic curve as CO2 increases.  So further increases in CO2 will have less and less of an effect.   
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PTK

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #18 on: December 15, 2008, 05:19:51 PM »
Quote
The sun was emitting less energy 4 billion years ago than it is now, yet for a lot of that time, it was a lot warmer than it is now.

Don't forget to account for things such as volcanoes (dust), different atmospheric conditions, different water makeup (dissolved minerals have changed RADICALLY over the years), radiation sources keeping the Earth's core molten, etc.

There are too many factors for me to believe ANY prediction, one way or the other.
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September 1915 - August 2008

"If you really do have cancer "this time", then this is your own fault. Like the little boy who cried wolf."

Brad Johnson

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #19 on: December 15, 2008, 05:36:38 PM »
Quote
Analysis of ice cores show strong correlation in the amounts of co2 in the atmosphere and global temperature.

Yep.  What they failed to show, and no one has been able to conclusively prove, is if the correlation is cause or effect.  Much of the repeatable and reputable data is leaning heavily towards the latter.


Quote
Water vapor in the air has been steady over time, so doesn't correlate to any changes in the climate.

El wrongo.  Water vapor, like all other constituent atmospheric gasses, changes over time in both percentage and overall quantity.  So sayeth the same ice core data you mentioned above.

Brad
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Desertdog

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #20 on: December 15, 2008, 06:00:04 PM »
Quote
Water vapor in the air has been steady over time, so doesn't correlate to any changes in the climate.

Water vapor in the air changes constantly.  It is called Relative Humidity (RH).
RH is just how much water the air will hold at a given temperature.  If you are talking about Absolute Humidity, that is something else.
When RH reaches saturation point, it will start dumping the moisture from the air, as rain, snow, dew, or frost, depending on conditions at the time.

Manedwolf

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #21 on: December 15, 2008, 06:05:05 PM »
Toba on Sumatra...



Ban these things.

Brad Johnson

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #22 on: December 15, 2008, 06:11:10 PM »
Quote from: Manedwolf
Toba on Sumatra...

I'll see your "Toba on Sumatra" and raise you a "Darmok and Jilad at Tanagra".

=D

Brad




It's all about the pancakes, people.
"And he thought cops wouldn't chase... a STOLEN DONUT TRUCK???? That would be like Willie Nelson ignoring a pickup full of weed."
-HankB

stevelyn

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #23 on: December 15, 2008, 06:19:03 PM »
Quote
I guess you missed The Day After Tomorrow, a movie which showed how global warming caused a new Ice Age almost over night. (The movie HAD to be good, because Algore lifted CGI scenes from it to use in HIS movie!)

Quote
That movie was so stupid at every turn that it made me angry.


And that movie was based on a book written by Art Bell and Whitley Streiber. While I have a little respect for Art Bell, I don't agree with what he's written and I doubt little if any actual science went into the project. I see it more as him trying to cash in rather than warning the world of a serious issue.

If you remember, not to long after that Owl Gore hopped the same money train.
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Iain

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #24 on: December 15, 2008, 06:31:54 PM »
This is all very silly.

Firstly I gave you all a link to a free book. Free people, free. Costs nothing. Good too.

Secondly - we've done this ad nauseum, and the only thing I've learned is that no matter how many times you address nonsense like 'but but volcanoes' and 'no water vapour in models' the same people repeat the same stuff over and over.

So horse meet water - http://www.aip.org/history/climate/ - now, the thirst is definitely on you.
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