Author Topic: The Global Warming Thread  (Read 7369 times)

richyoung

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #50 on: May 04, 2006, 06:08:41 AM »
Quote from: Iain
Only reasonably intelligent eh? I can live with that.
I appologize - open mouth, insert foot.  What I * MEANT * to type was that any reasonably intelligent person with internet access has access to both sides of the story and the faculties ot reach their own intelligent conclusion - and that you seem way more qualified than that minimum, as you at least ask questions, rather than stampedeing with the herd.  If I offended, I was wrong - I am a lot better with cars, guns, computers, and guitars than I am with people - still working on those people skills...

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Interestingly enough seven years ago I was studying my ass off for the hardest exam that I have yet taken, my chemistry A-level*. All that study, and all that time, has taught me one thing that is pertinent to this conversation - you know more about this than I do.
Like I said, living thru ther previous Chicken Littles makes me take a hard look at the evidence before I give up my car, my air conditioning, etc, on some one's alarmist premises.
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Which is great. I read your posts and I find them interesting and informative, and full of useful potential ammunition when having this discussion and playing my same role but with those who firmly do believe in global warming. And then one day I'll come across a guy who knows more than I do and his thoughts will be interesting and informative, and in favour of global warming, and then I'll be extra confused. Even more so than I am already.
The three big points to remember:

1.  Our energy input from the sun varies due to eccentricities in orbit, global tilt, and changes in solar output doe to sunspot and other cycles.
2.  We haven't had ANY capability to measure Earth's energy radiation at all until about 30 years ago - exsperts still argue whether we can ACCURATELY do it (and how to do it) now - and that's NOT enough time to track climate change.
3.  Global warming is basedon computer models that, when fed CURRENT data, cannot replicate CURRENT conditions - they are flawed - can't even tell you for sure if its going to rain tomorrow, much less what the temperature in Antarctica will be 100 years from now.
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I could spend the next ten years of my life studying a few hours a day and hope to call myself an amateur climatologist at the end of it. I'm not going to - and here is my point, neither has the vast majority of the proponents of either cause. Sure the guys at the top are experts, but I can't trust them because I don't understand them, and worse, they know that. Worse still, the vast majority of stuff I will hear about global warming will be filtered in some way by a media that doesn't understand, and knows that I don't either.

Ultimately every time someone comes along and throws knowledgable posts like yours at me I respect them for it, even if the angle is clear. And everytime someone comes along and says 'global warming has always happened and it's arrogant to assume that man has caused it', or conversely 'global warming is going to freaking kill us all dude', and that is the substance - I don't respect it.
My position, from the best that I can follow the science, is that mankind's fossil fuel use is responsible for a 0.1 to 0.3 degree raise in the nighttime summer temperatures - which is a GOOD thing, as:
1.  CO2 is PLANT FOOD - 98% of all the plant mass on earth comes from absorbed CO2, with water and minerals making up the rest. More CO2 - higher cropp yields, more resistance to disease.  Its like giving an athlete oxygen instead of air...
2.  Warmer summer nights increase yeilds for foodstuffs like corn and wheat.
3.  It amy delay the overdue Ice Age from arriving, or make it less intense.
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So there we go, that is the sum total of my participation in this thread - how is it that everyone is so sure? One side tells me that every 'reputable' scientist believes in it, and the other tells me that every 'reputable' scientist don't. I hardly think that my position is stampeding with the herd.
Follow the money - especially reasearch grants, and more importantly, but less visible, government control over private property and industry in the name of "staving off the crisis".  If  you can handle chemistry, a few hours perusing junkscience.com and similar sites, with a critical, analytical mind, will show you the way...
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't...

grampster

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #51 on: May 04, 2006, 06:40:41 AM »
THis thread reminds me of the "Acid Rain" catastrophe (don't hear much about that anymore) that was going to kill all the trees and make all lakes barren.

I read a fine book that devoted a chapter to that myth.  ("Trashing the Planet", by Dixie Lee Ray)  Oddly, while I was reading her debunking, while also acknowledging the fact that we should be careful in how we do things, 60 minutes ran a piece on Acid Rain that provided the results of a 10 year study done by a major university that studied the regions in the US and Canada that were being "destroyed".   That study, in the field,  found that acid rain was a non issue, that rainfall was generally naturally acidic and the lakes in the areas of the US and Canada that were being "devestated" were acidic due to conditions in the soil that were natural and had existed there for eons.  Tree die off was ascribed to elevation issues and trees that don't do well at elevations.  In addition, 60 minutes interviewed some green lawyers that represent groups that were responsible for the "Clean Air Act" Billions of dollars boondoggle and got them to admit the study was right, but that it didn't matter as the argument was about money and the power to move their agenda; whatever it took.

So to say I'm dubious about "Global Warming" would be an understatement.
"Never wrestle with a pig.  You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."  G.B. Shaw

Iain

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #52 on: May 04, 2006, 01:33:35 PM »
I was in no way offended. Perhaps as a Brit I'm highly tuned to, and appreciative of, the back-handed compliment. Wink

It's been good to discuss this with you Rich. I can only hope that next time I question the 'beliefs' and even the 'feelings' of a global warming advocate that they will remain as pleasant as you have.
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mr.v.

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #53 on: May 04, 2006, 10:41:54 PM »
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"ozone hole" that was going to kill us all has gone away, despite the fact that the third world is making, and releasing as many florocarbons now as ever.
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Why haven't we heard much about the ozone hole lately? Cause it was bullshit. Propagated by Union Carbide due to the fact that their patent on Freon was running out.
What unbelievably unsupported statements that argue against empirical evidence and data demonstrating reduced levels of ozone (ozone depletion) over the past decades and chemistry demonstrating a likely mechanism for its depletion from long-persisting human manufactured chemicals...

Expand your minds before you make such wildly unsupported statements. And if you do feel that there is good evidence to counter the data gathered by the scientists or can provide reasonable evidence that the data are fabricated...please cite a reference so that the rest of us can understand how it is that you disagree with the established theory...

http://www.epa.gov/ozone/science/unepSciQandA.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion

richyoung

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #54 on: May 05, 2006, 05:45:13 AM »
Quote from: mr.v.
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"ozone hole" that was going to kill us all has gone away, despite the fact that the third world is making, and releasing as many florocarbons now as ever.
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Why haven't we heard much about the ozone hole lately? Cause it was bullshit. Propagated by Union Carbide due to the fact that their patent on Freon was running out.
What unbelievably unsupported statements that argue against empirical evidence and data demonstrating reduced levels of ozone (ozone depletion) over the past decades and chemistry demonstrating a likely mechanism for its depletion from long-persisting human manufactured chemicals...
Q.  What creates ozone in the earths atmosphere?
A.  "Fifteen to thirty kilometers up in the atmosphere, in the layer called the stratosphere, ozone is created and destroyed primarily by ultraviolet radiation. The air in the stratosphere is bombarded continuously by ultraviolet radiation from the sun. When high-energy ultraviolet rays strike molecules of ordinary oxygen (O2), they split the molecule into two single oxygen atoms, known as atomic oxygen (O). A freed oxygen atom then can combine with an oxygen molecule to form a molecule of ozone (O3). "

according to: http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=55

Q.  Where was the "Ozone Hole" disovered?
A.  The ozone hole is located over the south pole.

according to:http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/newton/askasci/1993/environ/ENV023.HTM


Q.  What is unusual about "day" and "night" at the poles?
A.  Rather than having a 24 hour day/night cycle, the poles and the regions around them have 1 "day" a year - a 6 month period of continuous light, followed by a 6 month period of total darkness.'

Q.  When was the "ozone hole" discovered, relative to the light cycle at the poles?
A.  At the END of the antarctic "night".

Essentially, they found reduced levels of a chemical created by ultraviolet light in a region that had NO light of any kind, much less ultraviolet, for 6 MONTHS!! DUH!  I could have saved them the grant money...

Now for advanced studies:
1.   Chlorine molecules are the part of Freon accused of breaking down ozone.  How many tons of chlorine does MAN put into the air, compared to NATURAL SOURCES, like oceanic evaporation and volcanoes?

2.  Despite various treaties, chloroflorocarbon manufacture and use continues unchecked in places like China, India, Mexico, etc.  Add to that the fact that all PREVIOUSLY manufactured freon is still steadily leaking into the atmosphere.   Its been scientifically proven since a Space Shuttle misson in 1994 that the photochemical theory of ozone depletion is FALSE:  read about it at http://mitosyfraudes.8k.com/INGLES/Crista.html#3link

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Expand your minds before you make such wildly unsupported statements.
The Crista {scientists at the University of Wuppertal in Germany}, researchers emphasized this point in their Nov. 6, 1995 press statement:

"One can only understand these occurrences if one examines them in their totality and mutual interdependence. One finds no solution to the ozone problem if one examines only the photochemical side, but neglects the energetics and dynamics."

"Instead of a uniform distribution of ozone along a [band of constant] latitude, as the current models predict. Cristas showed a patchwork of large and small structures in the ozone distribution ... The first results show that photochemical models alone do not adequately describe the condition of the atmosphere. Dynamic processes and transports must be considered, for which temperatures, waves, and turbulences show themselves responsible."

Dr. Ulrich Grossman, one of the leaders of the Crista project at the University of Wuppertal, summarized some of the results in an interview: (1)

"The main point is that the instrument measures with an extremely high spatial resolution in a very short time. So we get a very dense measurement net over the globe within the constraints of the Shuttle orbit. What we see in nearly all emissions and also in ozone density is that there are large fluctuations from point to point and that the ozone distribution in a horizontal map looks like a weather map."

When the modelers "talk about zonally averaged values, it is useless," Grossman said. The ozone layer "is very, very structured. All these structures are moving around, like what you see in the weather map... You have to take all these into account if you want to make a real, reliable forecast for ozone over the next... 20 or 40 years."

Because all the processes involving all these gases in the atmosphere generally are nonlinear, when you take averages, you make mistakes. Once you are down to precision on the order of [hundredths], the errors which you would make by using average values are much bigger than that. Grossman does not believe that even a "mathematical program with the best computers" would be able to do this properly.

...The scientists, Kjell Henriksen from the University of Tromso in Norway and Valentin Roldugin from the Polar Geophysical Institute in Russia, analyzed one year of daily samples from six Soviet Middle Asian ozone measuring stations at two different altitudes.

They discovered that changes in the ozone layer were directly caused by the horizontal and vertical movement of air masses (that is, wind dynamics). A close analysis of the data also demonstrated that chemistry played no role in the thickness of the ozone layer over these stations...

After a detailed analysis of the Russian data, Henriksen and Roldugin conclude with a sharp reminder to the promoters of the ozone depletion fraud that they cannot arbitrarily exclude factors other than chemistry from their models:

The question of so-called "ozone depletion" has to be investigated from the point of view of long-term variation of general circulation in the atmosphere. Models of "the depletion," as summarized in [the World Meteorological Organization's] WMO Report, must realize that the meteorological conditions have significant effects on the ozone layer, being the main cause of seasonal as well as most of the shorter and apparently arbitrary density and thermal variations."






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And if you do feel that there is good evidence to counter the data gathered by the scientists or can provide reasonable evidence that the data are fabricated...please cite a reference so that the rest of us can understand how it is that you disagree with the established theory...
See above, for one...

plus:   From the World of Physics published a thorough review of ozone science by Thormod Henriksen from the Institute of Physics at the University of Oslo, which presents evidence that the ozone layer was thinner in the 1940s than today!

 the ozone layer went through a thinning process in the 1940s similar to that occurring now, with the exception, as noted by Henriksen, that "the ozone layer over southern Norway was thinner in the period between 1940 to 1946 than it is today." Henriksen also points out that the level of ultraviolet (UV) radiation have hardly changed:

"[In] the last 50 years the ozone layer has not changed to such a degree that biological effects are to be expected. In other words, there have hardly been any changes in the levels of UV-radiation, and therefore it is a dead-end to connect the recent years' development of the ozone layer with the increase of skin cancer."

Henriksen concludes:

"We can safely state that the picture of a depletion of the ozone layer is far more complicated than the picture that the media often gives. Those who expect a depletion timed with the release of CFC gases, will look in vain in their measurement results. It looks like the amount of ozone did increase in the 1950s and 1960s and reached a maximum in the 1970s. Since then, the amount of ozone has been decreasing. We believe that the low values in 1992 and 1993 are due to the volcano Mt. Pinatubo."


This, as opposed to your two sources, one of which is pimping for government funding to "study" the issue, and the other is wikipedia!
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't...

Desertdog

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #55 on: May 05, 2006, 01:25:24 PM »
"Chlorine molecules are the part of Freon accused of breaking down ozone. "
Unnoticed by the "scientist" is the millions of tons of Chlorine used in swimming pools and municiple waters ystems.

Also the following truths were never explained away to people that has some knowledge;
1) chloroflorocarbon (Freon) is heavier than air, so how did it get up to the stratsphere?

2) Chlorine gas is lighter than air.

3) Sunlight kills the effects of Chlorine, as proven by covering a chlorinated with a black plastic and see how long the pool stays clorinated, then cover it with a clear plastic and see how lone it stays clorinated.  In fact, instead of buying bottled water or water filter, I set milk bottles of chlorinated water in the sun for a day or so and there is absolutly no chlorine taste left in the water.

m1911owner

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #56 on: May 05, 2006, 03:00:21 PM »
DD, while for me the jury is still out as far as "The Ozone Layer" is concerned, there are well-understood answers to your points:

1)  While CFCs are heavier than air, the effects of atmospheric turbulance are much greater than effects of density, so, over the course of time, the various gases in the atmoshpere get quite well mixed up.

2)  While chlorine gas is lighter than air, it is also soluble in water, so it ends up being cleaned out of the air before it has time to migrate out of the lower atmosphere.

3)  I don't know exactly what reactions are going on there regarding pool chlorination, but chlorine is an element, so the only way it can be destroyed is in a nuclear reaction.  If your thought is that sunlight is breaking down the chlorine in "the ozone layer", the answer is twofold: 1) No, sunlight doesn't destroy chlorine, and 2) Yes, sunlight does cause molecules containing chlorine to break down.  That's a major point of the "destroying the ozone layer" argument--sunlight breaks up molecules containing chlorine, resulting in monatomic chlorine, which in turn proceeds to catalyze the breakdown of ozone.

publius

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #57 on: May 05, 2006, 03:20:51 PM »
Those answers seem to make sense to me, m1911owner. I'd like to see some answers to the book Rich Young posted.

Hey, wasn't this the global warming thread, not the ozone thread? Ah, who cares? I'm still interested, and everyone is being polite. Have at it!

brimic

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #58 on: May 06, 2006, 06:37:37 AM »
http://www.hwr.arizona.edu/nats101/week13/notes/history.html

Global warming IMHO is created by humans- a hysteria created by humans that is. Ozone depletion on the other hand is real.
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Desertdog

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #59 on: May 06, 2006, 09:08:12 AM »
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Ozone depletion on the other hand is real.
And is caused by??  
They "say" it is from chloroflorocarbon, but then seem to ignore chlorine, volcano emissions and natural causes that they cannot grab cash grants to "study" the problem.

IMHO it is all a natural normal process of nature for the ozone to deplete and replenish it self, the world to heat and cool, trees to grow, and if not cut down or burned in a forest fire, will die and pollute the forest floor with their remains until they ruin the forest or there is a devistating fire to consume the dead wood.

richyoung

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #60 on: May 08, 2006, 04:26:19 AM »
Quote from: Iain
I was in no way offended. Perhaps as a Brit I'm highly tuned to, and appreciative of, the back-handed compliment. Wink

It's been good to discuss this with you Rich. I can only hope that next time I question the 'beliefs' and even the 'feelings' of a global warming advocate that they will remain as pleasant as you have.
Its likewise a pleasure to touch base with the Mother Country.  God Save The Queen, and I hope you guys get your gun rights back soon...


Rich
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't...

richyoung

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #61 on: May 08, 2006, 11:15:10 AM »
Quote from: brimic
http://www.hwr.arizona.edu/nats101/week13/notes/history.html

Global warming IMHO is created by humans- a hysteria created by humans that is. Ozone depletion on the other hand is real.
Ozone is cyclical, and consists of 3-dimensional structures throughout the atmosphere.  By chosing your parameter boundaries carefully, a "hole" can be declared for any geographic area of lowered ozone.  If mankind's use of chlorflorocarbons causes depletion, how did ozone levels RISE over Finland though the 50s, 60s and why were they at record LOWS in the 40s?
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Bogie

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #62 on: May 08, 2006, 05:25:52 PM »
Well, I used to work for The Great Satan, and was dating a hippie chick at the time. She's always get all over me about my employer. Then one day, I went by her place to help her change the oil in her (Volvo 240D) car...). I was a little late, and she'd already succeeded (she _was_ handy...). So I get there, and I ask her where it is, so that I can drive it down to the local autozone, cuz I needed to pick something up anyway.

Turned out she always poured it down the gutter drain by her driveway...
 
Well, that relationship went nowhere...
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grampster

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The Global Warming Thread
« Reply #63 on: May 08, 2006, 05:47:02 PM »
Yeah, one of my ultra left wing lib friends (Bush lied, children died, conservatives eat human flesh)  is one of the biggest game violators that I know of.
"Never wrestle with a pig.  You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."  G.B. Shaw