Obama embraces his fellow Communists in Cuba, normalizes relations

[MillCreek]

From my reading, I was under the impression that in years past, any approaches to Cuba were like the third rail of American politics, because of the political and financial influence of south Florida and their hostility to Castro.  Apparently that has changed.

[Balog]

From my reading, I was under the impression that in years past, any approaches to Cuba were like the third rail of American politics, because of the political and financial influence of south Florida and their hostility to Castro.  Apparently that has changed.

2016 Democrat candidate will have to run hard against Obama anyway, this gives them one more point to disagree on.

[Scout26]

Hillary has already voiced her support for this move.  So apparently that she's not running from it.

From what I hear Little Havanna is up in arms, and this move will cement their support for any "R" candidates.


I also heard on Rush today (I was out running errands) that some guy who had been nominated for a Deputy Sec State position was being grilled last month by the Senate. 

Ahhh, found it:

Not only did Obama knowingly enter a lopsided prisoner trade with the Castro brothers, his administration lied about the pending change in US-Cuba relations. Senator Marco Rubio, one of the Capital Hill Cubans outraged at Obama’s actions, said that Tony Blinken, the newly confirmed deputy Secretary of State, told him last month that the administration would never change its policy towards Cuba without consulting Congress. At Blinken’s confirmation hearings, Rubio asked Blinken, ““Do you anticipate, during the rest of the president’s term, that there will be any unilateral change?” to sanctions on Cuba without democratic reforms. Blinken replied, “Anything that might be done on Cuba will have to be consistent with the law. Anything that in the future might be done on Cuba would be done in full consultation” with Congress.

The lies just never cease.

[Firethorn]

I'm still struggling to think of what legitimate American interest is served by this action.

It's simple:  Opening up our markets to them works both ways.  They're only 90 miles away, and our culture is one of the most infectious going.  While we haven't converted China to a democracy yet, our trade with them has induced them to give up on a lot of the communist policies and move towards a free market.  

It's an old 'gripping hand' problem - by being so big on the embargo, we actually lose what control we could have over them.  They just work around us, because the requirements to get us to 'open up' are so high they're never going to comply.

Open up the embargo and stuff, give it about 10 years for them to become dependent upon various things from us, then we can apply pressure to be more free, humanitarian, etc...

edit:  Realized as I was hitting submit that I should mention that the embargo didn't work over the course of 40 years.  We shouldn't expect this process to work quickly.

How about those Cubans who fled here is their confiscated property restored to them? Reparations? Or does normalization finally make em sol forever

They're already SOL...

[Balog]

Hillary has already voiced her support for this move.  So apparently that she's not running from it.

From what I hear Little Havanna is up in arms, and this move will cement their support for any "R" candidates.


I also heard on Rush today (I was out running errands) that some guy who had been nominated for a Deputy Sec State position was being grilled last month by the Senate. 

Ahhh, found it:
The lies just never cease.

Hillary isn't a viable candidate for 2016 and i think she knows it. She'll be a stalking horse for whoever it really is, Warren or one of the (Texas) Castro brothers or whoever.

[Jamisjockey]

Depends on what one expects from an embargo.
I think Balog has made some cogent and intelligent posts in this thread.

 
He also posted an excellent explanation on how the Cubans manipulate two different types of money to keep themselves in power.


 


We're opening up relationships with a regime that has neither promised or given anything in reciprocity.  Whatever benefits go to the Cubans will be usurped by the govt. to keep their power.
Which will prolong the Cuban peoples' opression.

No, I don't think the embargo was world-shatteringly important, but drawing it down will, IMHO, have some bad effects on the Cubans.  And for better or worse we will be partially morally culpable for them.
But, OTOH, we already live with so much ....perhaps in the end all will be rosy.

I don't get why we need something in return?  What interest does it serve to not open relations with a country only 90 miles from our border? 

It's simple:  Opening up our markets to them works both ways.  They're only 90 miles away, and our culture is one of the most infectious going.  While we haven't converted China to a democracy yet, our trade with them has induced them to give up on a lot of the communist policies and move towards a free market. 

It's an old 'gripping hand' problem - by being so big on the embargo, we actually lose what control we could have over them.  They just work around us, because the requirements to get us to 'open up' are so high they're never going to comply.

Open up the embargo and stuff, give it about 10 years for them to become dependent upon various things from us, then we can apply pressure to be more free, humanitarian, etc...

edit:  Realized as I was hitting submit that I should mention that the embargo didn't work over the course of 40 years.  We shouldn't expect this process to work quickly.

They're already SOL...

But...but...commies! And Obama sucks!

[Balog]

I don't get why we need something in return?  What interest does it serve to not open relations with a country only 90 miles from our border? 

But...but...commies! And Obama sucks!

So, I'm confused.

Is reopening trade relations going to flood Cuba with American money (and theoretically American influence, even though that has not worked for the rest of the world) thereby helping to prop up the despotic regime currently in place; or is it just no big deal and it won't make a difference and people who object are just kneejerking because of the fact that they're Communists?

And really Jamis, are you seriously asking why the goal of American foreign policy should be to advance American interests?

[Scout26]

The only thing ending the embargo would do is to continue to prop up the Castros.  "Regular" Cubans would not have access to hard currency and aren't even allowed to have the "convertible peso".  If they do, they must exchange them one for one with the "regular peso".   The Castros (and the .gov) are propped up with hard currency and the people are still sucking hind tit.

That only worked in Eastern Europe because we had access to East Berlin.  Western TV and radio went across the Border.  As did some western consumer goods, like blue jeans.  It might work in Cuba, but it will takes lots and lots of time.  (And generous tippers.  )

[Firethorn]

The only thing ending the embargo would do is to continue to prop up the Castros.

Meanwhile other people are talking about how the embargo does so much TO 'prop up the Castros'.  They use the embargo as a useful stalking horse to blame all their ills on, etc...  Who do you believe?  Personally, I'm on the side of 'the embargo hasn't worked over the course of 40 years, time to try something different'. 

They can get consumer goods and everything else from everywhere but the USA, so they're not hurting otherwise on trade. 

That only worked in Eastern Europe because we had access to East Berlin.  Western TV and radio went across the Border.  As did some western consumer goods, like blue jeans.  It might work in Cuba, but it will takes lots and lots of time.  (And generous tippers.  )

90 miles from Miami.  It's child's play to blast radio and television there.

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

Yea? Childs play? Ever wonder whats stopped it?

http://www.bbg.gov/broadcasters/ocb/

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_y_Televisi%C3%B3n_Mart%C3%AD


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[RadioFreeSeaLab]

I think the fastest way to turn Cubans against communism is for rich Americans to start spending dollars on their beaches and at their cigar shops. A flood of capitalist money is a pretty good argument.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[seeker_two]

Normalizing relations with Cuba is a good goal.....but not under the deal that Obama made. It basically gives the Castros everything they need to stay in power, and the US gets nothing in return. We can do a LOT better than that at the negotiating table.

This is a deal made by an administration desperate for a legacy.

[Balog]

I think the fastest way to turn Cubans against communism is for rich Americans to start spending dollars on their beaches and at their cigar shops. A flood of capitalist money is a pretty good argument.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Like all those rich Canadians and Germans have done? No Cuban outside of the party elite will see a dime of extra cash from ending the embargo. The idea that it will give us any influence on them is a naive fantasy.

[Scout26]

90 miles from Miami.  It's child's play to blast radio and television there.

TV and FM don't carry that far.  East Germany and Czechoslovakia were precisely zero miles from West Germany.

Informed by West German television and friends about the events, people in other East German cities began repeating the Leipzig demonstration, meeting at city squares on Monday evenings. A major turning point was the events in the West German Embassy of Prague, where thousands of East Germans had fled in September, living there in conditions reminiscent of the Third World. Hans-Dietrich Genscher had negotiated an agreement that allowed them to travel to the West, in trains that had to pass first through the GDR. Genscher's speech from the balcony was interrupted by a very emotional reaction to his announcement. When the trains passed Dresden's central station in early October, police forces had to stop people from trying to jump on the trains.

-Wikipedia article on the Montagsdemonstrationen of 1989


And before that was the Uprising of 1953:

On the morning of 16 June, 300 East Berlin construction workers went on strike and marched down Stalinallee, now Karl-Marx-Allee, towards government buildings after their superiors announced a pay cut if they did not meet their work quota. Their numbers quickly swelled and a general strike and protests were called for the next day. The West Berlin-based Radio in the American Sector reported the Berlin events and thus probably helped to incite the uprising in other parts of East Germany which involved more than one million people in about 700 localities

[Firethorn]

TV and FM don't carry that far.  East Germany  and Czechoslovakia was precisely zero miles from West Germany.

A big tower, directional antenna, and as much power as the politicians are willing to pay for would do it.

You wouldn't necessarily send TV/FM for that matter, you'd want to do some intel work and find out what 'most' Cubans have access too.

[RoadKingLarry]

And it's not like we don't have an actual land base right there on one end of the freaking island....

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

A big tower, directional antenna, and as much power as the politicians are willing to pay for would do it.

You wouldn't necessarily send TV/FM for that matter, you'd want to do some intel work and find out what 'most' Cubans have access too.

Golly I wonder why no one gov or private has done that....
It's the old even though it's never worked that's just because WE weren't the ones doing it script


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Ron]

The Cuban people have paid a heavy price for their role in supporting the revolution. The party is soo powerful nobody believes there could be a popular uprising to topple them.

Opening up diplomatic relations may give us some leverage we haven't had under the current status quo. It is possible that the carrot of opening up trade with them will force them to consider some reforms.

There are always unintended consequences as we have seen with China. Yet nobody recommends going back to the pre-Nixon status quo with China do they?

[Hawkmoon]

They can get consumer goods and everything else from everywhere but the USA, so they're not hurting otherwise on trade. 

40 years ago the USA actually made and exported stuff. Today, "American" consumer goods are almost entirely manufactured in China, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, or Malaysia. None of which have any embargoes in place vis-a-vis Cuba. About all the embargo accomplishes is preventing Cuban cigars from being sold in the U.S., and that's not a big deal because Cuban cigars aren't as good as those from a couple of central American countries anyway. (Or so I've been informed -- I don't smoke.)

[Firethorn]

Golly I wonder why no one gov or private has done that....

Lack of will.

It's the old even though it's never worked that's just because WE weren't the ones doing it script

I still think you're thinking my goals are loftier over shorter terms than what I'm actually thinking.

We're very different environmentally and economically - so trade makes sense.  Due to our proximity we're a closer market - cheaper, more profit.  Most of the other countries they've been trading with don't care.

About all the embargo accomplishes is preventing Cuban cigars from being sold in the U.S., and that's not a big deal because Cuban cigars aren't as good as those from a couple of central American countries anyway. (Or so I've been informed -- I don't smoke.)

I don't smoke either.  The China thing was pretty much what I meant with 'everywhere but the USA'.  About the only thing they'd buy today would be food - wheat, corn, and such, and industrial type goods, and farm equipment.