Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: HankB on November 05, 2008, 08:34:07 AM
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There are a few parallels to the Obama win over McCain and the Carter win over Ford. In each case, a relatively inexperienced Democrat with charisma beat an uninspiring Republican, thanks to a sympathetic media. (Though McCain wasn't the incumbent, Obama, of course, was helped by Bush's poor performance, as Carter was by Nixon's) Each Democrat promised bread and circuses; Carter promised $50 to every American - equivalent to several hundred $$$ today - and Obama promised tax cuts to 95% of Americans, even the 40% or so who pay no income tax.
Shortly after Carter's election, Saturday Night Live did a skit in which Dan Ackroyd played Carter. In the skit, "Carter" said, among other things, that now as President he was made privy to information he didn't have before . . . and y'all could kiss that $50 goodbye. Shortly afterwards, the real Jimmy Carter gave one of his infamous fireside chats that looked as if it were lifted straight from the SNL skit. People were most unhappy, and many believe this began Carter's slide, which was marked by double-digit inflation, rising energy prices, and punctuated with the Iran hostage crisis.
Now Obama is going to take office in a recession, with burgeoning deficits and an enormous national debt. He's pledged national health care, tax cuts for 95% of us, a trillion dollars in new spending, increased foreign aid (including a welfare program for the world) . . . and if you look at the numbers, it simply isn't possible.
And then there are the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran's nuke program, Obama's idea of talking with Mahmood Ahmadinejad without preconditions . . . could Iran cause problems for another Democrat president?
How will Obama's acolytes react when US troops are still in the Middle East after a year . . . or two or three?
How will Americans react when they see their energy bills go up with an Obama carbon tax - especially if it causes the economy to tank even more?
He's going to have to back away from some of his promises . . . obviously, his fellow travelers in the media are going to blame Bush, and keep blaming Bush . . . but how long will they be able to continue?
I'm guessing the shine on his halo will begin to show tarnish at around the 18 month mark. I may be entirely wrong, but if things go south the way I expect, I see Obama as a one-term President.
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My wife and I had this chat last night.
How on earth can people believe that BHO will give across the board tax cuts, but will be able to spend the way he intends to spend?!?
The first thing to go will be his "middle class" tax cuts.
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My wife and I had this chat last night.
How on earth can people believe that BHO will give across the board tax cuts, but will be able to spend the way he intends to spend?!?
The first thing to go will be his "middle class" tax cuts.
Easy. He'll nail businesses until large businesses flee to Dubai and small businesses close down.
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I'm with Hank B on this. Lots of similarity to the Carter years.
I also foresee a big switch in the House and Senate in two or four years. The public is fickle and forgetful, and they like the "change" thing no matter who is in power. This time they were sick of Republicans. When Obama's policies don't put money trees in every backyard and rainbows in every town, the Republicans will run on "change" and people will buy that.
Frankly, I like an administration of one party and a House / Senate majority of another. To me, gridlock in DC is a good thing. They may not be doing me any favors, but they're not screwing me (much) either.
I also, as Manedwolf said, see businesses moving more resources out of the country, that is if Obama lets them. Here in CA, they have a "tax penalty" you pay if you sell commercial property and move you and your money out of state.
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I think you are going to see a lot of blight of empty shopping centers and abandoned big boxes with trash blowing around in the next few years, especially as small business owners say "hell with it, I can't make a profit with this much taxes."
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I think you have made some very wise observations about this election. This was very similar to the Ford/Carter election, in that you had an unpopular Republican president sitting, with some difficult economic issues. The call was for change, and the people responded. Carter inherited a ton of headaches. Those headaches ate him up. Along comes chasimatic Ronald Reagan, and the rest is history. The question should be...who will be our next Reagan?
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My wife and I had this chat last night.
How on earth can people believe that BHO will give across the board tax cuts, but will be able to spend the way he intends to spend?!?
The first thing to go will be his "middle class" tax cuts.
But....but the last Democrat President we had promised middle-class tax cuts too.....
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I think you are going to see a lot of blight of empty shopping centers and abandoned big boxes with trash blowing around in the next few years, especially as small business owners say "hell with it, I can't make a profit with this much taxes."
Its not so much the taxes, but the back door taxes.
In our case, having to offer more benefits and health care to our employees could quickly kill our bottom line. Fastest way to fix that is to fire an employee or two.
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Hence Biden saying even the devout will be saying "WTF?" soon, and asking people to have faith.
My only question is how long will the media be able to pawn off "it's all Bush's fault" before people stop believing it? When Obama doesn't get us out of Iraq, doesn't institute universal health care (or people see how horrific that system is) etc the Blame Bush movement will be about done.
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The Democrat response to an economic fire is to spit at it or throw gasoline.
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Maybe a rabbit will jump into Obama's fishing boat.
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More than likely, there will be other problems surface as well. Before 9/11, there was the surveillance plane that had to land in China. You can't predict what challenges Obama will have to face.
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....the Blame Bush movement will be about done.
Ask Nixon just how long a President can be hated....
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Economic reality will win out. It is one thing to talk socialist programs. Quite another thing to figure a way to pay for it. We are already taxed to the breaking point. The world is about to dump the dollar as a reserve currency. And that, Kiddies, is a game changer. We lose reserve currency status and our ability to borrow is dramatically curtailed.
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Ask Nixon just how long a President can be hated....
kind of hard to ask him :)
(https://armedpolitesociety.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm2.static.flickr.com%2F1253%2F1371172188_289d4bf949.jpg%3Fv%3D0&hash=422adf6e5032d93add57bb19000492cd9847cd38)
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kind of hard to ask him :)
You have to speak up a bit...
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Haven't watched "Futurama", I take it?
Then there's this bit of art...
(https://armedpolitesociety.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.joeydevilla.com%2Fwordpress%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2006%2F08%2Fvote-robot-nixon.gif&hash=e48cf49531985cda44c2387bbfd644b46bcb6f76)
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You have to speak up a bit...
Good to know Nixon is in heaven.
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The economy will be in the dumps because there was a massive financial crisis this fall, not because of whatever Obama does or does not do in the first year of his presidency. The real issue with the economy will not be who has a solution (damage already largely done), but which party is able to effectively lay the blame for it.
If Obama uses his first term to effectively blame the downturn on Bush, he's in good shape for 2012. If he can't do that, he's in extremely bad shape for 2012. But let's not be under any illusions-the economic crisis has already happened. There are already retailers going under and thousands of people losing their homes and jobs.
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Haven't watched "Futurama", I take it?
Last time I checked its not year 3000 yet.
Make sure to unfreeze me on New Year's Eve 2999.
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the immediate gratification folks won't give him 4 years
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who will be our next Reagan?
Right now the best possibility seems to be Bobby Jindal. From what little I've seen of his speaking, he could give obama a run for his money with giving a speech, and he will have more experience than 100 days in the Senate by 2012. I like Palin for the most part, but she's got a long way to go before she can run for national office without the media trashing her.
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Right now the best possibility seems to be Bobby Jindal. From what little I've seen of his speaking, he could give obama a run for his money with giving a speech, and he will have more experience than 100 days in the Senate by 2012. I like Palin for the most part, but she's got a long way to go before she can run for national office without the media trashing her.
I don't think the MSM would ever not trash Palin. The hatred they spewed during this election shows that...
Jindal would get similar treatment.
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I don't think the MSM would ever not trash Palin. The hatred they spewed during this election shows that...
Jindal would get similar treatment.
Probably be somehow tied to Bush and Katrina.
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Probably be somehow tied to Bush and Katrina.
But Jindal is a really good speaker (which instantly gets you like 25% of the vote) and, from what I've read/heard, has done a decent job of cleaning up the Katrina mess.
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I don't think the MSM would ever not trash Palin. The hatred they spewed during this election shows that...
Jindal would get similar treatment.
No...he'd get worse...esp. after the Democrats "reform" the campaign process and resurrect the Fairness Doctrine....
The deck is being stacked as we speak....
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Let the Dems pursue the Fairness Doctrine. I would love to see NPR choke on conservative coverage. Likewise, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, etc... They have a lot more to lose in MSM. The talk radio shows might be inconvenienced, but not like the MSM. They would have a collectiv(ist) anuerysm.
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Let the Dems pursue the Fairness Doctrine. I would love to see NPR choke on conservative coverage. Likewise, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, etc... They have a lot more to lose in MSM. The talk radio shows might be inconvenienced, but not like the MSM. They would have a collectiv(ist) anuerysm.
That's assuming that the farness doctrine would be applied, well, fairly. The dems aren't pushing for the fairness doctrine as a way to make the media more fair. They're pushing for it as a way to give themselves an advantage. The dems control both houses of congress and the presidency; they'll be the ones deciding what's "fair" if the fairness doctrine becomes law in the next 4 years. Not to mention, "equal time" is a lot easier to define when you're dealing with people who openly espouse political opinions. It's not so easy when the punditry leaks into the "news" like it did during this campaign (and is now).
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Probably be somehow tied to Bush and Katrina.
Huh? Jindal took the governor's office 3 years after Katrina hit. He was in the House when Katrina hit, but that's a pretty tenuous connection.
Do you really think a large segment of the population would swallow that kind of connection? I'm sure a few would (like some think Obama is an Arab Muslim) but enough to can a candidate? I would hope not.
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Let the Dems pursue the Fairness Doctrine. I would love to see NPR choke on conservative coverage. Likewise, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, etc... They have a lot more to lose in MSM. The talk radio shows might be inconvenienced, but not like the MSM. They would have a collectiv(ist) anuerysm.
That's not how it would work and I'm tired of people imagining that the "Fairness Doctrine" standards would be ever enforced like that.
The MSM is always "Fair and Balanced" to the leftists. It's the hateful right wing talk radio and Fox News that will be affected by the "Fairness Doctrine". Don't delude yourself otherwise....
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Let the Dems pursue the Fairness Doctrine. I would love to see NPR choke on conservative coverage. Likewise, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, etc... They have a lot more to lose in MSM. The talk radio shows might be inconvenienced, but not like the MSM. They would have a collectiv(ist) anuerysm.
The Fairness Doctrine would do nothing to force the leftist media to provide conservative programming. If it did then the left would not push it.
Anygunanywhere
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You have to speak up a bit...
You should have caught him at the polling places with all the other dead folks.
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That's not how it would work and I'm tired of people imagining that the "Fairness Doctrine" standards would be ever enforced like that.
The MSM is always "Fair and Balanced" to the leftists. It's the hateful right wing talk radio and Fox News that will be affected by the "Fairness Doctrine". Don't delude yourself otherwise....
Yes.
"The thirty seconds of hateful speech presented by Michael Reagan will now be balanced by a half hour of Randi Rhodes' rebuttual."
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Probably be somehow tied to Bush and Katrina.
I have seen him treated very well whenever he is on the news networks. If anything, he has gotten a lot of credit for his work in cleaning up the Katrina mess, which didn't happen on his watch.