Author Topic: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela  (Read 6793 times)

makattak

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What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« on: May 16, 2016, 10:02:25 AM »
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/venezuela-is-falling-apart/481755/

This is so very sad. The people elected the socialist who appropriated power to himself and proceeded to eat the seed corn. (And stock billions away in accounts for his family and cronies... but I digress.)

The country, reliant on oil, made no preparations for the eventual drop in prices.

The country, MASSIVELY RICH in oil, built no power plants and relied on aging hydroelectric plants.

The country ignored infrastructure maintenance and is now dealing with problems in the water supply.



These are warnings to the rest of us. No, we will not turn into Venezuela overnight, because Venezuela didn't turn into this overnight.

It does warn about ignoring problems that we know exist in order to focus on the present. The bill will come due and eventually we cannot kick the can any longer.

It, of course, doesn't help that the political opposition claims those problems do not and will never exist (debt is a good example). Heaven help us when they cannot be ignored any longer.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

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makattak

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2016, 10:05:46 AM »
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/16/world/americas/dying-infants-and-no-medicine-inside-venezuelas-failing-hospitals.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

Do not get injured or sick in Venezuela, either.

My linked piece includes an anecdote about a 12 year old boy with epilepsy that was under control with medicine. Was being the operative word. He's dead now.

People are actually stealing the equipment researchers need to work on things like the Zika virus, too.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

roo_ster

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2016, 11:11:02 AM »
The Gods of the Copybook Headings are having their say in Venezuela.

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roo_ster

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MechAg94

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2016, 11:33:50 AM »
So where are all the Hollywood actors who rushed to do photo-ops with that late Venezuelan leader?  Surely they can help. 
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TommyGunn

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2016, 12:03:30 PM »
The Gods of the Copybook Headings are having their say in Venezuela.



Kipling was Great.   But I guess Hugo Chavez and his ilk prefered Marx & Engels. :'(
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Balog

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2016, 01:15:49 PM »
In one of the articles I've read on this I saw that Danny Glover took $18million to make a propaganda movie that never happened. I wonder if he'll use that to set up a charity for the country he defrauded? Lol...
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Perd Hapley

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2016, 01:33:42 PM »
In one of the articles I've read on this I saw that Danny Glover took $18million to make a propaganda movie...


Sounds about right.
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makattak

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2016, 01:57:17 PM »
In one of the articles I've read on this I saw that Danny Glover took $18million to make a propaganda movie that never happened. I wonder if he'll use that to set up a charity for the country he defrauded? Lol...

This may be that article.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

K Frame

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2016, 02:08:34 PM »
It's getting even better...

The glorious leader of socialism to benefit the masses Nicholas Maduro just extended the state of emergency in Venezuela, and is blaming the United States for attempting to oust him from power.

Why the spit hasn't hit the spam is completely beyond me, but the way it's going I'm suspecting that it's going to get very real very soon.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2016, 02:31:53 PM »
I'm suspecting that it's going to get very real very soon.


Civil war? Coup d'etat? Or will it be something much worse, like cancelling all the telenovelas?
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Boomhauer

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2016, 02:45:59 PM »
Obviously they didn't have enough safety nets, unions, and socialism to prevent it. After all look how Australia and Germany and did I mention Australia is doing!!!!!
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Perd Hapley

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2016, 02:53:21 PM »
Obviously they didn't have enough safety nets, unions, and socialism to prevent it. After all look how Australia and Germany and did I mention Australia is doing!!!!!


I heard Donald Trump was in charge, and that everybody was open-carrying assault weapons, without permits.
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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #13 on: May 17, 2016, 02:48:38 PM »

http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-05-17/venezuelas-economic-troubles-have-become-full-blown-crisis

- Oil accounts for about 96 percent of Venezuela’s exports. There's very little they otherwise export.

- They import WAY too much stuff. Between 25% and 80% of their food. Govt price fixing destroyed the local economy. Companies that are still in business are struggling to get base material to stay in business. Manufacturing ANYTHING, let alone turning a profit.
http://www.marketplace.org/2016/04/18/world/resource-curse/venezuela-ranchers

- The socialist govt destroyed plenty of businesses during its nationalizations, and is now trying to reopen some stuff for foreign ownership. While threatening more domestic nationalization. Naturally, bids will be low balled because of risk. Orinoco Mining Arc is one example, which has thousands of tons of gold. However, those areas are now controlled by armed groups. The workers are being paid and fed, the workers and gangs will fight the govt and international corporations.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/armed-gangs-confound-venezuelas-bid-to-exploit-gold-mines-1463477408

- Unions can and do destroy businesses. Maduro was a union leader. An example? A union contract said business owner had to stock TP. TP is near unobtainable. Owner found some. Employees took it all home. Govt shut down plant for violating contract.

- No one is willing to lend Venezuela money. Sorta. China is cutting them an oil-for-loan payment program. No one trusts their currency. Oil, everyone trusts. This just happened yesterday.
- Essentially Venezuela's weird multi tier currency system is a huge problem. It's making hyperinflation worse while trying to deny hyperinflation exists. Plus it's making price fixing worse. People are starving, yet govt priced food is being smuggled out of the country.
- Their healthcare system has collapsed. Stuff is getting stolen. No new medicine is coming in.
- Murder rates are climbing, but political prisoners are still being kept behind bars.

It's a cluster. Even if the current 'boss' is removed from power, I doubt the system will substantially change. They're screwed until oil prices arise again. I doubt they have the discipline to claw their way back up to decent prosperity.



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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #14 on: May 17, 2016, 02:56:30 PM »
- Unions can and do destroy businesses. Maduro was a union leader. An example? A union contract said business owner had to stock TP. TP is near unobtainable. Owner found some. Employees took it all home. Govt shut down plant for violating contract.

Actually, owner then found a couple months' supply and stashed it, then was charged with hoarding.

It's like they're trying to use Atlas Shrugged as a manual, but can't figure out which parts to use.

makattak

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #15 on: May 17, 2016, 03:15:05 PM »
http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-05-17/venezuelas-economic-troubles-have-become-full-blown-crisis

- Oil accounts for about 96 percent of Venezuela’s exports. There's very little they otherwise export.


The correlation between rich natural resources and poor economic outcomes has led to the term "the curse of natural resources" or "resource curse" in economic literature.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

roo_ster

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2016, 05:57:04 PM »
The correlation between rich natural resources and poor economic outcomes has led to the term "the curse of natural resources" or "resource curse" in economic literature.

Yep, just look at Norway and the horrifying results of the curse of its North Sea oil.  And Canada's tar sands.  Canucks can't hurry south to repopulate Detroit fast enough.
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roo_ster

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RevDisk

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #17 on: May 18, 2016, 09:43:22 AM »
Yep, just look at Norway and the horrifying results of the curse of its North Sea oil.  And Canada's tar sands.  Canucks can't hurry south to repopulate Detroit fast enough.

In fairness, undersea oil and tar sands require work/intelligence to reach. The countries had to develop a stable economy long before they could exploit those resources.

On the other hand, they didn't go full retard once they got those resources flowing. Venezuela can't blame anything other than electing bad politicians.
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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #18 on: May 18, 2016, 09:57:50 AM »
In fairness, undersea oil and tar sands require work/intelligence to reach. 

Which, if I remember right, Venezuela had, until they ran off the US and European companies that were getting to their oil for them. Even with all the confiscated equipment, I guess they couldn't find any commies smart enough to run it.
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roo_ster

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #19 on: May 18, 2016, 11:21:04 AM »
In fairness, undersea oil and tar sands require work/intelligence to reach. The countries had to develop a stable economy long before they could exploit those resources.

On the other hand, they didn't go full retard once they got those resources flowing. Venezuela can't blame anything other than electing bad politicians.

Which, if I remember right, Venezuela had, until they ran off the US and European companies that were getting to their oil for them. Even with all the confiscated equipment, I guess they couldn't find any commies smart enough to run it.

It takes hard work to reach any oil that is not just burbling up out of the ground, ready to be scooped up in 5-gal buckets. 

Some nations can build the infrastructure, keep it going, and exploit the resource. (Norway)

Others can't build it or keep it going, but are competent enough to let others do so..and not run them off...and thereby benefit. (KSA)

Still others can't build it, can't keep it going, and can't manage not to run off those outsiders that did those tasks for them so that it all eventually breaks down. (Venezuela, fast decline ; Mexico, slow decline)

The last set of nations run off the outsiders and actively destroy the infrastructure. (Nigera WRT oil; most of the former colonies after decolonization WRT first-world infrastructure in general)

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roo_ster

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makattak

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #20 on: May 18, 2016, 12:06:11 PM »
Yep, just look at Norway and the horrifying results of the curse of its North Sea oil.  And Canada's tar sands.  Canucks can't hurry south to repopulate Detroit fast enough.

Norway is an exception.

Canada, on the other hand, doesn't even get 20% of it's GDP from natural resources, so it would not be included.

Most of the other countries have extremely corrupt states that obviously forestall any other industries as they know they, too, would be plundered. So, countries rich with natural resources (like Canada and the US) that are not corrupt will often grow other businesses that prevent natural resources from becoming a sizeable portion of their GDP, which can skew the observations about "Resource Rich Nations."

Now, of course, this is a chicken and the egg problem: would the corrupt state exist absent the relatively easy wealth and monopoly status of extracted minerals?

Or is the nature of the country corrupt and they just happen to have natural wealth which is exploited as any other would be?
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

AJ Dual

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #21 on: May 18, 2016, 12:16:34 PM »
I'd argue that the corruption in the U.S. is merely a higher level comprised of a political class corporatist oligarchy of meta-corruption that doesn't hinder the productivity of the private sector as much.

It is parasitic, like say G.E., tax breaks, and windmills etc. or even when it dies quicker, like Solyndra, there's at least certain facade of sustainability about it. It employs people, utilizes skilled trades, creates secondary economic activity with other providers in the economy like construction, and sub-contractors, in a pseudo-Keynesian way that still eats its own tail, but does so much more slowly.

Broken window fallacy still applies of course, even if the broken window is so many steps removed, but you can go on that way for a long, long time. And if your lucky, the host organism/economy might even grow despite the parasitism, and completely cover the problem with net gains during good times. It all still happened at the expense of the taxpayers directly, or indirectly through the Federal Reserve, quantitative easing, and inflation.

The more overt third-world corruption tends to convert assets and kills entire industries in one fell swoop, like aggressive cancer, and/or a MRSA necrotizing fasciitis.
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K Frame

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #22 on: May 18, 2016, 03:13:01 PM »

Civil war? Coup d'etat? Or will it be something much worse, like cancelling all the telenovelas?

With the electric out, the tellenovellas have been effectively cancelled.
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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #23 on: May 18, 2016, 03:50:52 PM »
At this point, the status of "banana republic" would be a significant upgrade for Venezuela.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: What a failed state looks like: Venezuela
« Reply #24 on: May 18, 2016, 05:52:40 PM »
With the electric out, the tellenovellas have been effectively cancelled.


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