Rebels Shot Down Passenger Plane

[lupinus]

People must have said the same of Hitler when all they thought he wanted was the Sudetenland.

I know, I know, no one wants go go to war against Putin.   
It's just the history repeating itself, both geopolitically and attitudinally that "gets" me.
I'm not supporting a war, especially with our current CinC; he'd just lose the war and apologize.....

People fight over lands and borders all the time. It's gone on for thousands of years and will do so for more, just because one occasionally goes really balls to the wall crazy doesn't mean it always repeats itself that way. In fact, I'd go so far as to say it usually doesn't. But I'll add "when they start shoving an entire ethnic group into ovens" to my list of times to call me if it makes you feel better.

Until there's a compelling reason to stick our noses in my position stands. The areas of Ukraine involved are largely ethnically and pro Russian, if they want to seize an opportunity to push for a switch back to Russia that's between them Russia and Ukraine. We have no treaties obligating us to militarily defend Ukraine (and even if we did, a largely internal matter with one side wanting to break away would likely be debatable if we should intervene). And we have no national interests in the area worth getting into a spat over. So I see no reason to stick our noses in and get egg on our face, and I damn sure don't want us getting involved militarily.

[Monkeyleg]

Why the facepalm, TommyGunn?

[lupinus]

We have a remarkably poor record of engaging in treaties and then ignoring them or promising to defend and then reneging.



Taiwan must be sleeping well these days ....

When did we sign mutual defense treaties or promise to defend Ukraine, exactly? And even if we had, where did they include intervening in a mainly internal conflict?

[TommyGunn]

When did we sign mutual defense treaties or promise to defend Ukraine, exactly? And even if we had, where did they include intervening in a mainly internal conflict?

It was done in order to convince the Ukraine to give up its nukes because Russia really didn't like them to have nukes if they weren't subservient to the USSR.
Since I wrote that I have read a little more; it seems it really wasn't so much a promise to defend the Ukraine as just a legal background for doing it, if necessary.
BTW, just what the heck is Putin doing in a "mainly internal conflict? ?   
IIRC this whole shebang started when Russia invaded the Crimea. 
Then the whole block joined the party.

[Balog]

Why?

Do we have a compelling interest in eastern Europe or the icky-stans? And that's not counting the whole "self determination" thing we supposedly love. Many of the folks in Eastern Europe would vote to break up their country if allowed.

Mostly, I just look back on my professional experiences with some of the former SSR's militaries om Iraq. Like the Israeli government, these are not regimes we really want to support. Where as my experiences with Russians (all in the early 90's and not military) left me feeling like our cultures had a lot in common. So why are we picking one over the other? Because Putin doesn't like the gayz?

Actually, I kinda hope he does. Let Russia funk around with the Muslims in central Asia for a while.

Who said anything a out picking sides in this conflict? I merely pointed out that the re-emergence of Russia as a significant global super power with expansionistic tendencies is a big deal.

[Hawkmoon]

When did we sign mutual defense treaties or promise to defend Ukraine, exactly? And even if we had, where did they include intervening in a mainly internal conflict?

But you are apparently believing that it is an internal conflict. In fact, it is not. It is known and accepted that Russia is encouraging the separatist movement. It is also widely suspected that many (most?) of the so-called separatist spear carriers are, in fact, Russian troops with their insignia removed from their uniforms.

I don't regard it as an internal conflict, and I blame Russia for stirring it up.

[mtnbkr]

But you are apparently believing that it is an internal conflict. In fact, it is not. It is known and accepted that Russia is encouraging the separatist movement. It is also widely suspected that many (most?) of the so-called separatist spear carriers are, in fact, Russian troops with their insignia removed from their uniforms.

I don't regard it as an internal conflict, and I blame Russia for stirring it up.

Because we've NEVER done the exact same thing.

Chris

[lupinus]

But you are apparently believing that it is an internal conflict. In fact, it is not. It is known and accepted that Russia is encouraging the separatist movement. It is also widely suspected that many (most?) of the so-called separatist spear carriers are, in fact, Russian troops with their insignia removed from their uniforms.

I don't regard it as an internal conflict, and I blame Russia for stirring it up.

I never said Russians weren't involved. But fanning internal flames it's still internal as far as I'm concerned. And I'll be perfectly honest, Russia could launch a full scale invasion tomorrow and my position wouldn't change much. It's not our problem, and it's not our business. Give them the stink eye, toss a few words of wtf if it makes folks feel better, but beyond that we should stay out of it. When they *expletive deleted*ck with a country that we have an obligation to defend, whether by treaty or a strong enough strategic interest, then it's our problem and our business. And we can go from there what steps would be appropriate responses.

[Hawkmoon]

Because we've NEVER done the exact same thing.

I never claimed that we didn't. My wife was from Chile, where the CIA sponsored and supported a military coup and the removal (and murder, IIRC) of the democratically-elected president (Salvatore Allende). "Our guy" was a goon who was responsible for the murders of thousands of people.

Doesn't mean the Russians aren't doing it now ...

[Hawkmoon]

I never said Russians weren't involved. But fanning internal flames it's still internal as far as I'm concerned.

It's internal IF all the "rebels" are in fact Russian-speaking Ukrainians. It appears that you believe they are. I believe they are not. I believe they are Russian Army, possibly Spetnaz. If I'm right, then it's not internal.

[lupinus]

It's internal IF all the "rebels" are in fact Russian-speaking Ukrainians. It appears that you believe they are. I believe they are not. I believe they are Russian Army, possibly Spetnaz. If I'm right, then it's not internal.

Let's say that's true. What business does that make it of ours?

[Ron]

The genie is out of the bottle regarding Ukraine. We don't have a compelling national interest to get involved. What we do have a compelling national interest in is the national sovereignty of our friends and allies in the region.

It appears Vlad is looking for his own "reset" ie rebooting the cold war. I'm not completely opposed to providing material and support to nations afraid of being absorbed into a USSR v2. Unfortunately we don't seem to have a brain trust in charge who could pull that off with the subtlety and deftness such an undertaking would require. Talks around accelerating the implementation of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System in Poland might send the message that there are red lines even fickle Democrats won't ignore.

Really though this is something that the free nations of Europe should be pursuing. If they "feel" like they can't count on Team America World Police and have to buck up themselves a bit I'm OK with that idea.  

Actually I would like to see us focus more on getting our own house in order here stateside; then maybe trying to exercise a little more soft power in our own hemisphere.  We need to fire up the ol' US economic power house and that alone will put fear back into our enemies heart.  

[Hawkmoon]

We need to fire up the ol' US economic power house and that alone will put fear back into our enemies heart.  

Too late. It's been outsourced to India and China.

[RevDisk]

Too late. It's been outsourced to India and China.

Actually, it's only recently (2012) that China passed the US in manufacturing.

We build a lot of stuff, but with far less people and far greater efficiency. So it's generally not as noticeable.

[birdman]

Actually, it's only recently (2012) that China passed the US in manufacturing.

We build a lot of stuff, but with far less people and far greater efficiency. So it's generally not as noticeable.

And its coming back.  Wages are rising in PRC, and the constant (I've seen the scars) IP theft, massive QC issues, etc, are leaving a sour taste in many people's mouths.
That's why I designed production and mfg for some things I'm doing to be domestic.  If you design right, very little touch labor (where PRC is cheap) and the rest of the equipment is industry standard, so no real benefit of offshore, if you find the right place with low energy costs, low land costs, and low taxes (cough, Texas, cough)

[KD5NRH]

That's why I designed production and mfg for some things I'm doing to be domestic.  If you design right, very little touch labor (where PRC is cheap) and the rest of the equipment is industry standard, so no real benefit of offshore, if you find the right place with low energy costs, low land costs, and low taxes (cough, Texas, cough)

Ah, but if you go with the Chinese, you get to play Apple/Microsoft/Sony and make up your own spec to declare "industry standard," then whine when nobody else pays your licensing fees to implement it.

Yes, I'm still highly amused by the 1/4-20 bolts with metric heads...at a guess, they must have had thousands of them custom made, apparently so they wouldn't have to get one new wrench per line.

[roo_ster]

Quote of the week:

"You can always count on Eastern Europeans equipped with advanced technology to eventually screw up massively and kill a lot of innocent people."
----Steve Sailer

From this:
http://www.unz.com/isteve/roger-cohen-in-nyt-demands-ww3/

NYT op-ed columnist Roger Cohen calls for World War III...

You know, Roger, Barbara Tuchman’s history of the beginnings of World War One, The Guns of August, wasn’t actually intended as a How To manual. When Santayana talked about the need to learn from the past, it wasn’t so we can do it all over again.

This is why I’ve been worrying about World War G for the last year. What’s the worst that hyping World War G can lead to? I mean, besides World War 3?

[birdman]

Ah, but if you go with the Chinese, you get to play Apple/Microsoft/Sony and make up your own spec to declare "industry standard," then whine when nobody else pays your licensing fees to implement it.

Yes, I'm still highly amused by the 1/4-20 bolts with metric heads...at a guess, they must have had thousands of them custom made, apparently so they wouldn't have to get one new wrench per line.

By equipment in this case I mean $100,000+ pick/place/stencil/reflow lines that everyone uses.

[agricola]

It appears Vlad is looking for his own "reset" ie rebooting the cold war. I'm not completely opposed to providing material and support to nations afraid of being absorbed into a USSR v2. Unfortunately we don't seem to have a brain trust in charge who could pull that off with the subtlety and deftness such an undertaking would require. Talks around accelerating the implementation of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System in Poland might send the message that there are red lines even fickle Democrats won't ignore.

I am not sure he is looking to "reset" the Cold War, he is just adopting SOP for Russian leaders when a European power starts moving towards Moscow. 

What makes it especially dangerous for him and his ilk is that this time it isnt in the form of an army that they can rally people against, its taken the form of sly diplomacy, football and a massive improvement in the quality of life of people who the Soviets and the oligarchs who succeeded them ruled abysmally and looted shamelessly.  If Ukraine goes through anything like the sort of improvement as Poland, the Baltic States and the rest saw, then you can bet that people will be out on the streets in Moscow demanding much the same - and they will probably get it.

And at that point, with the EU stretching from Cadiz to Vladivostok, it becomes your problem.

[Boomhauer]

The genie is out of the bottle regarding Ukraine. We don't have a compelling national interest to get involved. What we do have a compelling national interest in is the national sovereignty of our friends and allies in the region.

It appears Vlad is looking for his own "reset" ie rebooting the cold war. I'm not completely opposed to providing material and support to nations afraid of being absorbed into a USSR v2. Unfortunately we don't seem to have a brain trust in charge who could pull that off with the subtlety and deftness such an undertaking would require. Talks around accelerating the implementation of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System in Poland might send the message that there are red lines even fickle Democrats won't ignore.

Really though this is something that the free nations of Europe should be pursuing. If they "feel" like they can't count on Team America World Police and have to buck up themselves a bit I'm OK with that idea. 

Actually I would like to see us focus more on getting our own house in order here stateside; then maybe trying to exercise a little more soft power in our own hemisphere.  We need to fire up the ol' US economic power house and that alone will put fear back into our enemies heart.   

Putin isn't an idiot. He wants to make Russia strong, and make it strong with him solidly in place as a leader. He knows exactly what he can get away with, and apparently he knows how to accomplish his mission. The times the US has had similar levels of drive to get *expletive deleted*it done are the times we have flourished, and done it quickly.

If Putin can pull it off, look for a stronger Russia.

As far as I am concerned, the Cold War never ended and the Russians never ceased being enemies. Unfortunately, our leaders lost sight of the threat and decided to ignore them.

Oh, and a strong Russia unencumbered by the idiocy of Communism or the Czars is going to be a force to be reckoned with indeed.