Charles Krauthammer on Libya and the Bush Doctrine

[De Selby]

Monkeyleg,

You got citations and examples in that other thread - one of them was a blog that listed citations, and explained them very well.  I'm not sure how that would have been different if I'd just put the citations in my post, as they were there for you to check.  

In this example, the point is that a claim like "Iraq inspired protest" can only be verified by...examples of inspiration.  I'm contending, based on a good familiarity with reports, that no such inspiration exists.  The proof is in seeing no single example of a reference to Iraq as inspiration, and seeing conversely that Iraqis are now protesting after the Tunisian and Egyptian protests.

If you can't find a single example of protestors admiring or citing Iraq as an inspiration, wouldn't you consider that to be fairly good evidence that Krauthammer's claims are baseless?

In that same other thread, I'll note that when you asked for examples of the protestors being anti-Israel, I provided them, as would make sense - you couldn't be expected to prove the non-existence of those sentiments.  I'm asking for the same here.

[Monkeyleg]

Yes, and your blog citations were at odds with information freely available from the CIA.

I'm contending, based on a good familiarity with reports, that no such inspiration exists.

There you go again. "Familiarity with reports". Why don't the rest of us ever get these "reports"?

If you can't find a single example of protestors admiring or citing Iraq as an inspiration, wouldn't you consider that to be fairly good evidence that Krauthammer's claims are baseless?

I don't have anyone I know in the Middle East to ask questions of. Then again, I'm not saying that Krauthammer is wrong or right, as you are, but that he has an interesting opinion.

In the last year there's been uprisings against the governments in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Algeria, Iran, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and other ME countries with fairly oppressive regimes. Some of these governments, such as Libya's, Iran's, and Egypt's, have been in power for 30, 40 or even nearly 50 years.

There seems to be more than a coincidence, which is reason to ask why. It's not a reason to draw firm conclusions.

[Perd Hapley]

Fistful, De Selby is asking for facts that are I believe unavailable to dispute Krauthammer's opinion.

He's asking for these facts as he's been challenged on his assertion as fact that Ghadaffi (sp?), Mubarek, etc are being overthrown because they didn't oppose the Iraq war.

Oh, OK. I see what you're referring to, and you're quite right. He asks for evidence that Iraq regime change inspired the protesters, but doesn't supply any evidence from the protesters that supports his contention about regimes being weakened by failure to oppose the war.

And if one reads to the end of Krauthammer's piece, he does provide a substantive reason why the Iraq war weakened Gaddafi - by intimidating him into surrender of his WMDs.

[De Selby]

If that's the sole issue, the Iraq war's destabilising influence, it should almost go without saying - that war was almost as unpopular as Israel among Arab populations.  The fact that their dictators lent support to the US in carrying it out would be yet one more way in which the popular voice was ignored by the leadership. 

Does anyone honestly doubt the unpopularity of that war among Arabs enough to require a statistic?!  Well, here's one from before the protests:  http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2009/0519_arab_opinion/2009_arab_public_opinion_poll.pdf

Percentage of people in Arab countries who think Iraq is better off as of 2009?  6%. I'd say record negative views of "progress" in Iraq is a pretty good sign that they're not inspired by Iraqi "democracy", which itself is finding it necessary to shoot protestors to defend Government buildings.


The point of my request was to illustrate how silly Krauthammer's point is - it's not possible to find a single protestor citing Iraq as inspiration, because there isn't anyone in the Arab world inspired by Iraq.  Indeed, it's only single digit percentages of people who believe it's better off.  Funny how the people who can speak the Iraqis language, and who live right next door, are almost universally convinced that the place is worse off after the war, yet there are people like Krauthammer arguing (without evidence) that it's an inspiration to them.

[De Selby]

Yes, and your blog citations were at odds with information freely available from the CIA.

There you go again. "Familiarity with reports". Why don't the rest of us ever get these "reports"?

1.  The information from the CIA, as I explained in that thread, didn't actually track quality of life.  You can have low death rates with extremely high homicide rates; likewise, you can have economic growth without any growth in jobs.  The blog explained why those measures you were citing weren't useful, and cited others that are useful, like job prospects and risk of being killed.

2.  Most of us don't get these reports because we don't read academic/specialty newswires on the middle east.  If we did, it wouldn't be that surprising to find out things like - Iraq has been infiltrated by Iranians at every level of government; the protests in Arab states are following the successful revolt in Tunisia; hardly anyone in the middle east thinks Iraq is better off; etc.

[Perd Hapley]

De Selby,

You've said numerous times that the Arab world doesn't believe Iraq is in better shape after the war. But Krauthammer isn't claiming that it does. What he is saying is that Iraq demonstrates that dictators can be overthrown, and replaced with democratic governments, even if they are "fragile and imperfect." He is saying that "the Bush Doctrine set the premise" that democracy could be spread even to the Middle Eastern nations that Bush's detractors had written off as hopeless.

Since (elsewhere) you have dismissed rational self interest as "unrealistic," you may have to back down from the notion that Iraq can only serve as inspiration if Iraqis are "better off." It may be, as you suggested in another thread, that principle (a desire for self-determination) can overrule the concern for material well-being.

[De Selby]

fistful,

There's no evidence that anyone in the middle east sees Iraq as "democracy against a tyrant."  There's plenty of evidence that they see it as a military occupation - ie, not democratic.  The only evidence for a "premise" set by Iraq is that the US attacks and occupies Arab countries in the eyes of the Arab public.  The overwhelming majority of them think the US is the problem in Iraq, and that it should leave. (That's in the link as well.)

You don't need to join Krauthammer in his desperation to rehabilitate Bush to explain these events.  The obvious answer is staring us all in the face, and that is the revolution in Tunisia.  It's not coincidence that all of these states fell shortly after Tunisia.

Ironically, the states that GW was most supportive of and dealt with the most are now gone or going - Egypt, Tunisia, and Bahrain, being the prime examples.  In contrast, Iran and Syria are by all accounts weathering the storm of democracy just fine. (Hizbullah doesn't need to; it won a popular majority, and now has control of parliament through means that could've occurred in a European country.)

[makattak]

(Hizbullah doesn't need to; it won a popular majority, and now has control of parliament through means that could've occurred in a European country.)

Ahhh, SnS, always good for a laugh.

Of course you're perfectly right here, so long as the European country you're talking about is Germany.

[De Selby]

Ahhh, SnS, always good for a laugh.

Of course you're perfectly right here, so long as the European country you're talking about is Germany.

I'm not sure what you're disputing here - Hizbullah won a popular majority in the last election, but didn't control the government because of the parliamentary coalition formed by Saad Hariri.

That parliamentary coalition fell apart when MPs from Walid Jumblatt's party joined the Hizbullah MPs.  That happens in parliamentary democracies all the time.  Why would that only be applicable to Germany?

[Perd Hapley]

fistful,

There's no evidence that anyone in the middle east sees Iraq as "democracy against a tyrant."  There's plenty of evidence that they see it as a military occupation - ie, not democratic.  The only evidence for a "premise" set by Iraq is that the US attacks and occupies Arab countries in the eyes of the Arab public.  The overwhelming majority of them think the US is the problem in Iraq, and that it should leave. (That's in the link as well.)

You don't need to join Krauthammer in his desperation to rehabilitate Bush to explain these events.  The obvious answer is staring us all in the face, and that is the revolution in Tunisia.  It's not coincidence that all of these states fell shortly after Tunisia.

Ironically, the states that GW was most supportive of and dealt with the most are now gone or going - Egypt, Tunisia, and Bahrain, being the prime examples.  In contrast, Iran and Syria are by all accounts weathering the storm of democracy just fine. (Hizbullah doesn't need to; it won a popular majority, and now has control of parliament through means that could've occurred in a European country.)

OK. You could have led with that, instead of the mis-reading of Krauthammer.

[De Selby]

OK. You could have led with that, instead of the mis-reading of Krauthammer.

Uh, where would that misreading of Krauthammer be?

[MicroBalrog]

I'm not sure what you're disputing here - Hizbullah won a popular majority in the last election, but didn't control the government because of the parliamentary coalition formed by Saad Hariri.

That parliamentary coalition fell apart when MPs from Walid Jumblatt's party joined the Hizbullah MPs. 

When's the next fair and honest election i Lebanon again?

[De Selby]

When's the next fair and honest election i Lebanon again?

Not sure - the last one was 09. 

[Perd Hapley]

Uh, where would that misreading of Krauthammer be?

It you weren't misreading Krauthammer, then did you just not read the article?

[De Selby]

It you weren't misreading Krauthammer, then did you just not read the article?

You're going to have justify the implication that I misread or didn't read the article for us to discuss it.  It was a simple claim he made, and I see nowhere in my posts here that misrepresent it.

[Perd Hapley]

Already did that.

De Selby,

You've said numerous times that the Arab world doesn't believe Iraq is in better shape after the war. But Krauthammer isn't claiming that it does. What he is saying is that Iraq demonstrates that dictators can be overthrown, and replaced with democratic governments, even if they are "fragile and imperfect." He is saying that "the Bush Doctrine set the premise" that democracy could be spread even to the Middle Eastern nations that Bush's detractors had written off as hopeless.

[De Selby]

Not seeing how that illustrates a lack of reading the article - all I see there is you stretching (based on a misinterpretation of my point on economic behaviour in other threads) to explain away the evidence that Arabs are not inspired by Iraq.  The measure I posted (overwhelmingly negative views of Iraq) is pretty good evidence of the point. 

What you posted was a theoretical and unlikely explanation as to how those numbers could still be consistent with Krauthammer's claim.

[Perd Hapley]

Now you're misreading my post as well. If not twisting it beyond all recognition. I don't think we have anything further to chat about here.

[Perd Hapley]

Sigh. Fine. I do get a little tired of some people taking every explanation as an argument for or against some binary system of opposing views. Krauthammer didn't say Iraqis were materially "better off." He said that their system of government had changed. Yet you attempt to disprove Krauthammer's point by talking about whether Middle-Easterners think that Iraq is "better off."

That was pretty much it. I'm not disputing your other points with regard to Iraq vis-a-vis the larger Middle East. I'm not championing Krauthammer's. Just sayin'.

[De Selby]

Did you read the survey?  Where did it confine the question to "material" benefits?  The series of questions polled are pretty telling against Mr K's point. 

[Perd Hapley]

As you know, I never claimed that the survey limited the question to material benefits, or discussed it in any way. And no, I didn't read it.

[makattak]

In contrast, Iran and Syria are by all accounts weathering the storm of democracy just fine. (Hizbullah doesn't need to; it won a popular majority, and now has control of parliament through means that could've occurred in a European country.)

Since MB thought it necessary to bump a thread crediting SnS, I had to bump this one:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2011-03-26-syria-protests_N.htm

[roo_ster]

Since MB thought it necessary to bump a thread crediting SnS, I had to bump this one:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2011-03-26-syria-protests_N.htm

But you just don;t get it.  The Al-Qeda fighters, tribal warriors, and renegade Libyan Army units are defenseless civilians we are intervening to save from a humanitarian disaster.  Those protesting in Syria are Jew-financed Zionist stooges.

HTH.

[MicroBalrog]

Let us not forget that the uprising in Libya started with Quaddafi slaughtering civilian demonstrators.

'Tribal warriors' who have learned to shoot a gun yesterday or who wave a Strela missile about and insist it is an anti-tank weapon that they're about to mess up a tank with are as close to unarmed as a man can be. Hell, in a sense I am better armed than such men. I have only two knives and a folding shovel, but at least I have a vague clue of how to use them. And I know that the shovel is not actually an anti-tank weapon.

[De Selby]

Since MB thought it necessary to bump a thread crediting SnS, I had to bump this one:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2011-03-26-syria-protests_N.htm

There was always a chance this would happen - it was simply less likely to in Syria and Iran.  Go back and see my comments on this; I never said it was impossible.