Royal Saudi Navy vs. Iranian Navy... could happen?

[Hutch]

I saw this:
http://thehill.com/policy/defense/239295-us-officials-concerned-about-iranian-convoy-headed-towards-yemen
indicating that the Iranians are like to try to run a Saudi blockade to aid ethnic Shia in the Houthi faction in Ongoing Unpleasantness in Yemen.  The article describes variously "an armada" and a "flotilla" headed that way, indicating that some ships may be armed.  The article also indicates that an Iranian destroyer has arrived on station to conduct anti-piracy patrols.

A quick search informs me that the RSN has a half dozen or so frigates and an equal (or so) number of corvettes, split between Red Sea and Persian Gulf bases.  I will return to this after researching the Iranian OrBat.

What're the odds being offered on the likelihood of blows being traded, and the outcome of such action?  Do I recall correctly that the I's have a Kilo-class available?  More in a bit.

ETA:  The Iranians have a destroyer because one of their mullahs decided to call a frigate a destroyer.  Public domain information says the have three Kilo subs.  My vast experience (playing hours and hours of Harpoon in the '90's) leads me to believe that, should the subs be deployed and aggressively managed, the RSN will be routed with great loss.  Not sure of the geopolitical consequences.  Unless the USN has standing orders and a pre-existing ROE, it's unlikely that the USN could intervene in a timely and effective manner.  Hello, $100/bbl oil.

[HankB]

. . . Unless the USN has standing orders and a pre-existing ROE, it's unlikely that the USN could intervene in a timely and effective manner . . .

Given our current POTUS, it wouldn't surprise me AT ALL if the USN were ordered to intervene on behalf of the Iranians.

After all, there were several reports (admittedly, without "official" confirmation) that the USAF would have been ordered to fire on IDF forces if they were to attempt a strike at Iranian nuclear facilities.

[agricola]

I especially like the comment from your defence secretary:

“That's good for the people of Yemen, first and foremost. It's good for Saudi Arabia that doesn't need this on its southern border.  And … it's good for us, among other reasons, because of AQAP's presence in Yemen. But for that to occur, it'll require more than military action,” he added.

The US is presently (albeit at a bit of a remove) allied with AQAP in the fight against the Houthis, by the way.

[Hawkmoon]

"AQAP"?

[AmbulanceDriver]

"AQAP"?

I'm guessing Al Qaeda Arabian Peninsula

[Hutch]

Ya see, it's kinda like the definition of a weed, viz: a plant growing where it's not wanted.  So,

Bloodthirsty Sunni thugs fighting bloodthirsty Shia in Yemen, Sunni = good guy (well, for restricted values of good). 

Bloodthirsty Sunni thugs fighting bloodthirsty Shia in Iraq, Shia = good guy (well, for restricted values of good)

Bloodthirsty Sunni thugs fighting bloodthirsty Shia in Syria, well, it's complicated.

[brimic]

So shia and sunni might kill eachother in a spectacular naval battle? I call that a win.

[RoadKingLarry]

Release the Kraken!

[Angel Eyes]

"When the communists Sunnis show up to protest the nazis Shi'ites, you're supposed to pray for an asteroid, not pick a favourite."

---- with apologies to Kate McMillan

[Sergeant Bob]

Release the Kraken!

"Release the Kraken!â„¢"  I'm with Larry!!!!

[Scout26]

As glorious as the idea of the Saudis and Iranians destroying each other in an epic naval battle sounds (With the Kracken eating the survivors), I highly doubt it will happen.

Given the Muslim "Insha Allah" aiming method, the sea creatures have more to fear from such a fight then the actual participants....

[brimic]

As glorious as the idea of the Saudis and Iranians destroying each other in an epic naval battle sounds (With the Kracken eating the survivors), I highly doubt it will happen.

Given the Muslim "Insha Allah" aiming method, the sea creatures have more to fear from such a fight then the actual participants....

I thought they were the experts at maths and sciences and preserved them for all of mankind?

[Scout26]

I thought they were the experts at maths and sciences and preserved them for all of mankind?

They were, right until around the 7 century CE.

[Andiron]

They were, right until around the 7 century CE.

 

[Hutch]

It appears as if the Theodore Roosevelt will be on-station there soon.  Do we have an effective CVBG there now?  My google-fu is week.

[dogmush]

Soooo..... I have sailed around the Persian Gulf and dealt with vessels of both those navies several times now.  To put it nicely, an Iranian-Saudi navel engagement would need to be scored by yakity sax.  If the Saudi's could actually get their crap underway the Iranian's would definitely be able to shoot at it. Until their weapons fell off the mounts and overboard. (Yep, saw that happen once).

These are not highly trained, professional mariners we are discussing here.

[lupinus]

Soooo..... I have sailed around the Persian Gulf and dealt with vessels of both those navies several times now.  To put it nicely, an Iranian-Saudi navel engagement would need to be scored by yakity sax.  If the Saudi's could actually get their crap underway the Iranian's would definitely be able to shoot at it. Until their weapons fell off the mounts and overboard. (Yep, saw that happen once).

These are not highly trained, professional mariners we are discussing here.

Soooo.

Boy scouts in some canoes with .22's should be able to solve the problem?

[dogmush]

Somali pirates could rout the Saudi Royal Navy

[Boomhauer]

Somali pirates could rout the Saudi Royal Navy

Or one neckbeard with a Mosin...

[French G.]

I don't doubt that the Iranian Navy is not first world stuff. but due to our pansy ass ROE, neither are we. I've been overflown by an Iranian P-3 no one knew was there until the captain got a visual from the bridge wig on his smoke break, watched missile boats put casually between a CVN(the CVN-71 in question no less) and its CG guard dog. Been in bad breath distance of a frigate in a straits transit. If they decided to do something dumb yes they would lose, yes we would be the first one to get hurt badly. And I'm pretty sure every Iranian pilot has an aim for the ass note on CVN-71 due to its less than Nimitz set of point defenses.

[roo_ster]

I don't doubt that the Iranian Navy is not first world stuff. but due to our pansy ass ROE, neither are we. I've been overflown by an Iranian P-3 no one knew was there until the captain got a visual from the bridge wig on his smoke break, watched missile boats put casually between a CVN(the CVN-71 in question no less) and its CG guard dog. Been in bad breath distance of a frigate in a straits transit. If they decided to do something dumb yes they would lose, yes we would be the first one to get hurt badly. And I'm pretty sure every Iranian pilot has an aim for the ass note on CVN-71 due to its less than Nimitz set of point defenses.

Any reason why the TR got hosed on defensive armament?

[French G.]

Yeah, we backed over top of the Leyte Gulf one night and knocked off CIWS mount on the port stern. Never replaced. And after that I have never assumed that someone fell asleep and accidentally set off an alarm at 0200. Real fun when you're in the Persian Gulf and that's the chem alarm.

[freakazoid]

It appears as if the Theodore Roosevelt will be on-station there soon.  Do we have an effective CVBG there now?  My google-fu is week.

I hope they are on station now, we left.

[MechAg94]

I don't doubt that the Iranian Navy is not first world stuff. but due to our pansy ass ROE, neither are we. I've been overflown by an Iranian P-3 no one knew was there until the captain got a visual from the bridge wig on his smoke break, watched missile boats put casually between a CVN(the CVN-71 in question no less) and its CG guard dog. Been in bad breath distance of a frigate in a straits transit. If they decided to do something dumb yes they would lose, yes we would be the first one to get hurt badly. And I'm pretty sure every Iranian pilot has an aim for the ass note on CVN-71 due to its less than Nimitz set of point defenses.

Anytime I hear we are deploying any military forces, I worry about the ROE's. 

I heard quite a while back the Iranians have a whole bunch of shore based anti-ship missiles.  Anyone else heard of that?

[Andiron]

Crap,  can't find the bookmark.  Something about them having a handful of Chinese Silkworm/Sunburn missiles.  Damnit,  I had an informative article on that.