Part of the issue is that this storm formed and strengthened really quickly.
Last week it was a tropical depression/storm off of Mexico, with lots of upper level shear and not really expected to get real big.
Sunday it was clearly going to be a mid-sh level hurricane, but still with lots of shear, and moving to fast to really pick up too much steam from the Gulf waters.
Monday/Teusday it morphed into "Huh, that things going to be a Major Hurricane. Maybe we should put some storm lines on the boat and rig for Storm Surge"
This morning I woke up to "The most powerful hurricane to hit the Panhandle of FL, ever".
That's a VERY fast progression that the models didn't really predict. *expletive deleted*it happens, and models aren't perfect. But they didn't get as much warning as normal. Not like watching Irma strengthen for 7-10 days.
ETA: I just pulled the NHC Forecast Advisory archives to jog my memory.
On Sat the 6th they were forecasting 60kt max winds for 1800Z on the 10.
By yesterday they were up to forecasting 110kt max winds for 1800Z today.
At 0900Z today we were measuring 120kt winds with it expected to strengthen over the day. It just strengthened way more than anyone predicted. Which is why those of us in FL do our best to have as much ready to go as possible. Sometimes you don't have a lot of time to change plans at the last minute. Charlie did a similar thing in that it hung a 90 degree right hand turn and turned an expected glancing blow for Ft. Meyers into a direct hit, with about 12 hours notice.
