Dear President Obama,
I know you are having a very difficult time right now. After the debacle that was the stimulus package and the car company bailouts, the American public is extremely wary of your healthcare reform. Sorry, I guess it is now health insurance reform.
You have been surprised by the fervor and intensity of the opposition. Rest assured, despite the hopes of your fellow Democrats, this is real. People don't want socialized medicine and are aware that this is the first step.
Your credibility is suffering. Your poll numbers are slipping. Your plan may even go down to defeat while the Democrats are holding both houses of congress.
The opposition to your plan stems from more than just a desire to prevent a government take-over of healthcare. Much of the opposition to anything the government is doing right now is because we are running massive deficits. Promises that everything will work out are empty. The American people know how bad debt is and proposing to increase it further will meet extremely strong resistance. Whether you pass the current bill or not, your party is due to lose many seats in 2010, many more than the "experts" will predict. Although still not a certainty it is even a strong possibility you may lose BOTH houses of congress. The experts will not predict this because intensity of preferences is a very difficult thing for polls to reflect. Trust me, Mr. President, those who oppose your policies are VERY opposed to them. Some of your supporters are very strong supporters. Their intensity is far overmatched, though. You are going to lose a great deal in the elections and your re-election will be very difficult.
I lay this out so that your position is clear. I know the experts will discount what I've said, but you need to know the depth of the opposition to your plans. In fact, I am one of those opposed to them. I know this will make you discount what I'm about to say, but I am giving you honest advice.
Mr. President, you are going to have to make a choice. You and your party members in congress have created this problem beginning with the stimulus. The heavy-handed tactics to pass that bill that the American people realize is not helping the economy (and are not even designed to help) has awakened your opposition.
As such, if you want to get your healthcare through. You will have to compromise. I know you have heard that advice before, but here is where my advice will differ.
You ran on a platform of "responsibility." Your blue-dog Democrat members were voted in because they claimed to be fiscally responsible. For that reason, your own party members are afraid to vote for your bill.
So, don't compromise on your healthcare bill. Instead, come out and admit you made a mistake on the stimulus package. Tell the American people that you allowed your party members to stuff the stimulus package with pork that did not help the economy. Tell the American people that you will not sign any healthcare reform until we fix that waste first.
THEN, throw a curveball. Tell the American people that you have reconsidered. After looking at how the economy responded to the Bush tax cuts following the economic shock that was 9/11, you realize the best way to turn the economy around is to make these tax cuts permanent. If you REALLY want to shake things up, say that Bush's cuts did not go far enough and cut taxes more.
The economy will move from slow improvement to growth once again. Then, tell the American people that you think the economy can handle covering the 48 million people that are uninsured. Then you can push your plans through congress as your party members will be able to say they are being fiscally responsible and not running up more debt needlessly.
By using TAX CUTS to stimulate the economy, you will also be able to reassure those voters who thought you were a new kind of politician, preaching responsibility and bipartisanship that you can take ideas from the opposition when you see how well they work. Admitting the mistake of the surplus, given how much opposition there is in the country now, will also endear you to the American public as it shows flexibility and humility.
Now, you may get your healthcare bill through without following my advice. However, you will lose the congress whether it gets passed or not if you do not follow my advice. Mr. President, learn from President Clinton and move to the voters rather than dragging them where they do not want to go.
I know you think you have to push everything through as fast as possible because once it's through, everything will work out. In this, you are mistaken.
I also know you will not listen to my advice, which is why I am more than happy to share it with you. Further, I know you have a philosophical opposition to tax cuts and cannot countenance their usefulness to your cause. If you want to acheive your goals and retain power, though, something's got to give.
Respectfully,
XXXXXXXXXXX
