Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: charby on November 25, 2008, 10:35:58 AM
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From the Drudge report.
RUSSIAN ANALYST PREDICTS DECLINE AND BREAKUP OF USA
Tue Nov 25 2008 09:04:22 ET
A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.
Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily IZVESTIA published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."
The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.
When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."
When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."
Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."
He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.
He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all." Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.
Developing...
Wtf? He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.
Large Native American populations? Has this guy even been to those "poorer" states? I don't think the Union will collapse and if he would notice the rest of the world is in the same financial mess we are.
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The article sounded lucid...
for the first four paragraphs.
He then went on to illustrate his utter ignorance of the make-up of the United States.
As to what they are smoking- Russian ascendency:
When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."
Everyone who wants the US to fall does so because they want their country to take its place.
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He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts...
Russians have a tendency to take ethnic divisions, both real and imaginary, very seriously.
Frankly, I've felt for years the Union should have let the Confederacy declare independence and go its own way. The trend toward larger and larger—and more invasive—government starts with Lincoln.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Nations_of_North_America
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Nations_of_North_America
That is completely wrong. New Hampshire and Massachusetts are like the two Koreas or the former two Germanys. It's unfriendly territory down there. And what the hell does Nova Scotia have to do with us? Nothing.
I could see NH, Vermont and perhaps Maine being a "republic of leave us the hell alone".
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So, the Russians are Ron Paul voters? Who would have thought? =D
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I could see NH, Vermont and perhaps Maine being a "republic of leave us the hell alone".
Nope. That honor has already been taken by Texas. =D
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So Canada has influence on the northern states? Anyone from one of the northern states care to chime in.
As of Native American influence, I could see Oklahoma going that way. Just look at all the Indian Casinos opening up and/or expanding.
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So Canada has influence on the northern states? Anyone from one of the northern states care to chime in.
Nothing here except for a few french-canadian last names and pork pie on the menu of a few restaurants...
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Nations_of_North_America
I see that Illinois kicked Chicago out into the Foundry Region.
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I think his broad assertions are correct, it's just the details about how the various regions will split away that are off base, IMO. It appears some of his own cultural biases are creeping into that part of his analysis.
I've believed for years that the USA is headed for eventual dissolution. The USA is an aging democracy* showing definite signs of dying from old age. It's the timeline of the dissolution, however, that I've never had a good fix on. Prior to the current financial crisis I thought we had about 40-50 years left. Now, I'm not so sure.
*Yes, I know, representative republic and all that.
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The Russians are learning just how a free media works: Short on facts, long on sensationalism. It makes the media great money in this country, so I am sure they are following our lead.
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He's got the details wrong but not the central meme.
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What "independence movements" in Texas is he referring to? Is he talking about that nut who was filing false property liens a few years back? Is he talking about some of the religious compounds? I think most of what he is seeing is pride of our history, not actual independence.
IMO, there is a great deal of momentum going in this country for staying together. It would take a huge collapse of our entire way of life or something else really really big to push people in the direction of a break up. I don't see that happening any time soon. What is happening now is nothing big when weighed against that. IMO, it would take a few generations of bad stuff to lead to that; otherwise the momentum would still be to rebuild the entire country as one.
Robert Heinlein essentially predicted a breakup in at least one of his books. I can't remember what year Friday was supposed to have occurred.
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He's wrong, I pledge my personal wealth and vast armory to carve my county in BFE out of the Atlantic confederation into the independent duchy of BuckyVania. :laugh: When's the break-up start?
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Well, lord BO is the President "elect," who knows what 4 years of his nonsense will bring.
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MO, there is a great deal of momentum going in this country for staying together. It would take a huge collapse of our entire way of life or something else really really big to push people in the direction of a break up. I don't see that happening any time soon. What is happening now is nothing big when weighed against that. IMO, it would take a few generations of bad stuff to lead to that; otherwise the momentum would still be to rebuild the entire country as one.
The geography of the United States is arbitrary. We are held together by common values and beliefs, but that glue has been weakening for at least half a century. We are not really one country even today, and it gives me no pleasure to say that. The coming socialism of Obama will drive a powerful wedge between the two Americas, one that believes in individual liberty and the other that believes in the womb of government. A worsening economy will exacerbate the divisions, and the government will take advantage of that, imposing autocratic will in place of the fading rule of law. The impending amnesty, unless it is somehow defeated (unlikely), will undermine the basic predicates of the American idea. I realize a lot of you disagree. That's good. See you where the action is.
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So Canada has influence on the northern states? Anyone from one of the northern states care to chime in.
I have no idea what you're talking aboot.
I receive Canadian coins as change on any given day....
My first fishing license was Ontario, not from my native Michigan....
I was born in a hospital room with a view of Canada...
I watched hockey 35 years ago on the Tee Vee.....
The strip clubs, oh boy....
My first real, unsupervised, rowdy drunk was off of Molson Golden Ale...
...but other than that "cultural" crap, I have no idea what you're talking aboot.
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Who the hell died and made Panarin a 'respected' person in Russia?
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So Canada has influence on the northern states? Anyone from one of the northern states care to chime in.
They truck their cattle down here to sell them at our auctions. =|
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So Canada has influence on the northern states? Anyone from one of the northern states care to chime in.
Canada has influence on Aroostook County here in Maine. Course, I'm about 10-15 minutes from the border and live on land that was part of a few land disputes. I'm surrounded by Canada.
They have some logging claims here and some businesses that employ a significant number of US citizens. We have good relations with them for the most part, with a lot of folks who travel between the two countries. I believe our law enforcement and national guard cross-train with Canada for emergencies and the like.
The influence isn't huge, but it's there in a rural county like this.
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Heard a guest on a radio show some time ago suggest exactly the same things are going to happen; sooner or later. Regardless of the errors of the writer of this article, we are walking on very thin economic ice. Something has got to give sooner or later.
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http://gtr5.com
http://ssunitedstates.com
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Let me understand this: 35 years of "mutlicultural" propagandizing for ethnic and racial fragmentation and the Russian guy is delirious? He may have a cartoon version of the political scene but his basic position isn't that farfetched--or that new. It is hard to have a unified nation when most Americans cannot define what it means to BE American any more. Smell the coffee and smell the political reality too while you're at it. Today's Thanksgiving Day and how many Americans are obsessed with viewing today's holiday as a signal marker of their nation's "genocidal tendencies?"
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Today's Thanksgiving Day and how many Americans are obsessed with viewing today's holiday as a signal marker of their nation's "genocidal tendencies?"
A small subset, centered around the unis.
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Nope. That honor has already been taken by Texas. =D
Yeah, haven't you seen those "Don't mess with Texas" signs up and down the highway? =D
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Micro, you're in Israel, right? I'm in Los Angeles. Talk to anyone around here about Thanksgiving for five minuts and I'll bet you a latte that you hear someone have misgivings about America's "dark history." I'm not saying it's epidemic throughout all of America, just that a large percentage of liberals believe America is irreversibly flawed at its core.
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They need us, we don't need them.
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Micro, you're in Israel, right? I'm in Los Angeles. Talk to anyone around here about Thanksgiving for five minuts and I'll bet you a latte that you hear someone have misgivings about America's "dark history." I'm not saying it's epidemic throughout all of America, just that a large percentage of liberals believe America is irreversibly flawed at its core.
I think it's mostly the campus type. I meet a lot of people who believe that crap about America, too. A lot of them US expats. Funny, they shut up if I ask them when they're going to give up their citizenship.
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it is aboot time we recognized the importance of Canada in the USA affairs!, eh?
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I think that our Russian friend may be onto something... even though I disagree with his scenario about a regionalization. Many of the previous posts have made good and valid points about the United States become less and less united. The emphasis on "multiculturalism" has made the "melting pot" idea bad, and part of the old ways of thinking. An example of how different that was to those who emigrated to the US, was my Grandfather... once they arrived in the US, he would only allow English to be spoken in the house. My mother remembers the biggest arguements between he and my Grandmother being about her continuing to speak Norwegian with her friends and in the neighborhood. We still honor many Norwegian traditions, especially at Christmas, but are Americans. Period. Have been for three generations now.
Anyway... back to the Russian Professor. An item I agree with him on is the role that the current economic situation will have on exacerbating the divisions between regions. I don't think that the bailout(s) will correct things and bring the economy back. I beleive we are moving into a necessary period of re-adjustment, which will be very painful. A consequence of that pain may well be increased state government dissillusionment with central government programs, legislation and taxation. If I were to guess at what a modified map would look like, you'll see the NE and upper Midwest in affiliation, with the central southern, central southwest, plains and mountain states coming together. That then leaves the west coast to form its own socialist utopia probably with coastal Oregon and Washington.
Most importantly, I don't see this as something that is inherently violent. This isn't the civil war redux, and the worst thing for any side to do would be to either threaten or attempt to use force to achieve their aims.
The last area that I find issue with our friend about is his view that Russia and China are ready to step in to fill the place of the US in facilitating the global economy. I don't think he understands how much has changed and how evident those changes will become inthe next 6 - 12 months. I also feel that one reason that we haven't heard much from China lately is that they are busy internally trying to "keep the genie in the bottle" and that the recent slowdown has affected them much moreso that we (the public) can see or they will admit.
Jeff B.
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I simply think it would take a sustained event or series of events spanning decades to permanently break up the US. I think it would take some time for the majority of Americans to stop thinking of themselves that way or to think they could go it alone better; regardless of how bad it was in the short term.
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MicroBalog:
It is not just the "campus" types. This "dissing of America" phenomenon has spread far beyond the ivy-covered enclaves.
We are slowly but surely deconstructing America, unpacking the legacy. Some of this is being by American themselves, through such phenomena as multiculturalism. Some of it is being forced upon us by the pressures of globalization and the untenability of how we have come to run our economic affairs in the last few decades.
I see inevitable fragmentation, but the way our nation re-sorts itself will be, as with other countries, unique. How we reshuffle ourselves and whether that is peaceful or something is being worked out.
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Question...
Did Garreau actually live in the places (for an amount of time to get a real feel for the culture) that he said would make up the new nations?
I have spent a lot of time living all over and visiting the rest of this country to know that his boundries are close, but not quite accurate.
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So Canada has influence on the northern states?
Yeah, they've infected Idaho & Montana with their winter.
To return the favor, when we take them over, we will infect them with our gun laws.
The ownership roles aren't what they at first seem to be.
=D
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Who is Igor Panarrin? Does anyone in Russia take him seriously? He's a professor of somesuch, but does that make him important or influential there? Or is he rather like American professors, well-educated but clueless and generally harmless?
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Who is Igor Panarrin? Does anyone in Russia take him seriously? He's a professor of somesuch, but does that make him important or influential there? Or is he rather like American professors, well-educated but clueless and generally harmless?
I understand from what I read on the Russian sites that he's taken like a raving loony by the general academic community there.
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Once in awhile even a raving looney catches a glimpse of the big picture. He is wrong in the details, but overall I believe he understands what will happen to the US eventually.
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I simply think it would take a sustained event or series of events spanning decades to permanently break up the US. I think it would take some time for the majority of Americans to stop thinking of themselves that way or to think they could go it alone better; regardless of how bad it was in the short term.
^^^ This.
As long as they can still get off work, grab a six pack, and plop down in front of the teevee most Americans don't care enough to make trouble. And one common theme shared by most is pride about being "American" it's just people have different views on what it means to be American.
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Question...
Did Garreau actually live in the places (for an amount of time to get a real feel for the culture) that he said would make up the new nations?
I have spent a lot of time living all over and visiting the rest of this country to know that his boundries are close, but not quite accurate.
Well, for one thing - western Colorado has been seriously californicated since the early 1980's =(
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What you call Californication is just post-WW II American culture gradually disseminating itself throughout America.
But take heart, it's a failed enterprise and about to fall to pieces.
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What you call Californication is just post-WW II American culture gradually disseminating itself throughout America.
But take heart, it's a failed enterprise and about to fall to pieces.
I dunno - I lived there (and escaped!) and the term seemed pretty apt to me.
Old cowtowns (and sheep!) becoming liberal yuppie bastions. :( Oh, the curse of pretty scenery!
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Longeyes: I think living in LA may be giving you a skewed perspective......