Author Topic: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off  (Read 8100 times)

MillCreek

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Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« on: December 17, 2010, 08:37:57 PM »
So I have been listening to and reading the sound bites from both ends of the political spectrum on the economic effect of tax cuts for the well-off.  I would like to read some actual unbiased economic analysis of the impact of such cuts.  Does anyone know of a well-regarded source of such unbiased economic reviews?  I have done some Googling to no avail.
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MillCreek
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drewtam

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2010, 08:54:07 PM »
Quote
unbiased economic reviews?

Of a controversial tax policy question?

Are you kidding?

Is this forum participating in some kind of candid camera experiment?   :lol:
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Ron

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2010, 10:21:57 PM »
Covetousness, the root of all evil.

It is not the governments job to spread the wealth around.

The rich are not piggy banks for those of us of more modest means.

For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2010, 11:28:15 PM »
So I have been listening to and reading the sound bites from both ends of the political spectrum on the economic effect of tax cuts for the well-off.  I would like to read some actual unbiased economic analysis of the impact of such cuts.  Does anyone know of a well-regarded source of such unbiased economic reviews?  I have done some Googling to no avail.

As part of the current bill?  Pretty much zilch, since the rates don't change on them now that the bill is law.

The Dems & media types keep referring to the $250K+ crowd as "the rich" and "wealthy," and such.  I recall growing up middle middle class next to a home builder and his realtor wife.  On a good year, they might make in excess of $250K, much more than the mean for the neighborhood.  That was balanced by the BAD years, when they'd make bupkis or sometimes lose money.  I'm not sure exactly what the higher tax rates during the good years did, other than make it harder for them to save for the lean years or slow the growth of their businesses. 

I think that is illustrative, in that most of what BHO & the Dems classify as "rich" are not tophat-wearing scions of the well-to-do.  The vast majority are professional types (docs, lawyers, etc), small business owners, and maybe some larger business manager types. 

They are actual human beings who respond to incentives.  If the incentives mean for every marginal dollar they make, they get less & less (progressive tax rate), expect them to produce less.  Certainly, they will take fewer risks, the the marginal return declines.

A few years ago, a buddy of mine got a raise.  It just so happened that that raise pushed him into a higher tax bracket and the raise was taxed at a higher rate than his previous income.  He told me he ran the numbers and that "After income and payroll taxes are applied, I will be able to afford one extra pizza per month."

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roo_ster

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French G.

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2010, 12:00:17 AM »
I just like how the bracket in question was 250K+ but on camera the rhetoric was millionaires and billionaires.
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Monkeyleg

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2010, 12:08:59 AM »
Millionaires are as common as "hundred-thousand-aires" were twenty years ago.

I find it interesting that the liberal rich--the Warren Buffetts, Oprah's, Bill Gates and others who can isolate their money in trusts--hew the liberal line, yet the tax-raisers target the dentists, doctors and plumbing contractors for their wrath.

AJ Dual

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2010, 12:56:10 PM »
A simple common sense unbiased economic analysis of not raising taxes? (How can maintaining present rates be considered a "cut"?)

How about this?

Excluding the self-employed, and those who work for the .gov, who here works for a "poor" person?
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #7 on: December 18, 2010, 06:05:05 PM »
I've tried not to post in this thread, but every time I see the title I have to wonder why anyone needs an "analysis" of the effects. Aren't the effects easily predictable by anyone?

Raising the current rates (on any class of people) will divert more money from private hands, to the wasteful hands of government. Can there be any doubt that private enterprise and private charity waste less of "our" money than government agencies? (That is, they waste less of the money they DO have, regardless of the absolute amount.) So the effect of higher taxes would be more wasted money.

Secondly, our government openly admits it spends too much money already. Why would we give it a larger share of what anyone earns?

Thirdly, if we single out the wealthy for a tax hike, isn't inequality and discrimination a rather obvious effect?

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MillCreek

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #8 on: December 18, 2010, 06:17:15 PM »
I've tried not to post in this thread, but every time I see the title I have to wonder why anyone needs an "analysis" of the effects. Aren't the effects easily predictable by anyone?

No, they aren't.  Anyone who has studied economics would be wary of such a sound bite.  Depending on what economic model you adhere to, eminent economists differ widely on their predictions of the overall macroeconomic effects.  I particularly want to see data and research supporting the contention that tax cuts for the well-off will result in significant job growth.  If Bill Gates pays less taxes, is he personally going to go out and hire more people, and can this be quantified?  If my dentist already has a full patient load, is he going to go out and hire more hygienists with his tax savings?  Will private enterprise and private charities benefit from increased revenues, or are these tax savings just stuck into personal savings somewhere?

If it is claimed that these tax cuts will be of economic benefit, I would like to see the research underpinnings of such a contention so I can make up my own mind.  Sound bites from either the left or the right seem to be lacking such foundations.  I wonder if the GAO or other such organizations has published any research on this; I am not finding anything yet.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2010, 06:26:16 PM by MillCreek »
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MillCreek
Snohomish County, WA  USA


Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

MillCreek

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2010, 06:36:29 PM »
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704073804576023890972991846.html

This article discusses the implications of the recent tax deal on Social Security.  One of those overall macroeconomic effects that seem to be missed or glossed over by the sound bites.  I was interested to read that federal taxes currently account for 15% of GDP, the lowest level since 1950, and lower than under the administrations of Presidents Eisenhower and Reagan.  Hmm. 
_____________
Regards,
MillCreek
Snohomish County, WA  USA


Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

Doggy Daddy

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #10 on: December 18, 2010, 07:49:25 PM »
In my mind, the question is moot.

The taking of another's wealth is immoral.  The question of how many golden eggs we can take from the goose without killing it does not apply when the goose is a citizen and not a resource to be managed like some sort of commodity.

People just shouldn't be taking other people's stuff.  Any other debate is a diversion.

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #11 on: December 18, 2010, 08:12:46 PM »
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


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zahc

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2010, 12:36:48 AM »
As me friend says, we'll all be millionaires soon.

And we'll be lucky if that will be enough to fill our gas tank...
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2010, 12:58:56 AM »
No, they aren't.  Anyone who has studied economics would be wary of such a sound bite.  Depending on what economic model you adhere to, eminent economists differ widely on their predictions of the overall macroeconomic effects.  I particularly want to see data and research supporting the contention that tax cuts for the well-off will result in significant job growth.  If Bill Gates pays less taxes, is he personally going to go out and hire more people, and can this be quantified?  If my dentist already has a full patient load, is he going to go out and hire more hygienists with his tax savings?  Will private enterprise and private charities benefit from increased revenues, or are these tax savings just stuck into personal savings somewhere?

If it is claimed that these tax cuts will be of economic benefit, I would like to see the research underpinnings of such a contention so I can make up my own mind.  Sound bites from either the left or the right seem to be lacking such foundations.  I wonder if the GAO or other such organizations has published any research on this; I am not finding anything yet.

My reply is a bit long, so let me give a short summary: the question we should really be asking is, "How would higher tax rates on the wealthy help anyone?" If govt. gets all this money that some wish to tax from Bill Gates, how will it manage this money more beneficially than Gates would do himself? How do we gain by taking additional money from Bill Gates, and directing it into govt. hands?



I'm not sure what "sound bite" you refer to, but I'd like to apologize for a mistake I made in my last post. I'll correct that in a minute. Right now, let's clarify again that no tax cut is in view here. The choice placed before us is an extension of current tax rates, or an increase for some (or all) tax brackets. So you've got the questions backward, as many of us do, on both sides. No in-depth, third-party analysis is needed to see that, just a little clarification we can take care of in house.

Having gotten that out of the way, you've asked about two possible risks, should we fail to extend current rates on all tax brackets. First, (turning your question around for you) you question whether the wealthy will really be directly hiring fewer people, if we tax them at a higher rate. Turning the second question around, you asked if higher taxes will mean a reduction in charitable giving, or investment.

To begin to answer these questions, we could start by realizing that those are only two risks; there are others. For example, if Bill Gates pays more taxes, he has other options besides firing his own employees, or just instituting a hiring freeze. The tax hike may contribute to higher prices for Microsoft products and services, which could raise operating costs at businesses the world over. Which could lead to fewer purchases of new software from Microsoft, reducing profits, reducing the taxes govt. gets from Microsoft in the first place. Higher taxes, especially with lower profits, could mean that Gates invests in fewer businesses, that might have hired additional employees. Or Microsoft may tighten budgets by reducing the housekeeping staff at office buildings (I'm seeing this happen right now, where I work), or canceling planned renovations or re-decorations. This would mean less business for contractors or vendors. These contractors, and Gates himself, may forgo home improvements, or travel, or purchasing new cars, etc. It would add to the unemployment problem. Or more simply put, we all seem to agree that middle-class "tax cuts" stimulate the economy. Why shouldn't upper-crust "tax cuts" do the same?

There seems to be an underlying assumption in your questions, that Bill Gates' money will be better-spent in the hands of the tax-man. Or perhaps the assumption is that Gates must prove he will spend his money in some way that promotes so-called social justice, before he can keep his own money. Perhaps both. But there seems to be widespread agreement that government is both mismanaging our money, and managing too much of it to begin with. So why would it occur to anyone to raise taxes on Bill Gates, et al? Yet a third assumption I think I detect is that money "stuck into personal savings somewhere" is somehow lost to the economy. I don't know a lot about banking, but I thought it was pretty basic knowledge that the money in a savings account (or other investment) is being lent to business owners, or to the guy buying a car so he can get back and forth to work every day. Is that any worse than the money being stuck into some bureaucracy somewhere? Isn't it actually better?

Another mistake, which I made in my own previous post, was to neglect the very real possibility that higher tax rates on the wealthy will reduce tax revenues. So it is possible that higher tax rates will actually reduce the amount of money being wasted by govt. But only by slowing down the overall economy.
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MechAg94

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2010, 01:07:18 AM »
No, they aren't.  Anyone who has studied economics would be wary of such a sound bite.  Depending on what economic model you adhere to, eminent economists differ widely on their predictions of the overall macroeconomic effects.  I particularly want to see data and research supporting the contention that tax cuts for the well-off will result in significant job growth.  If Bill Gates pays less taxes, is he personally going to go out and hire more people, and can this be quantified?  If my dentist already has a full patient load, is he going to go out and hire more hygienists with his tax savings?  Will private enterprise and private charities benefit from increased revenues, or are these tax savings just stuck into personal savings somewhere?

If it is claimed that these tax cuts will be of economic benefit, I would like to see the research underpinnings of such a contention so I can make up my own mind.  Sound bites from either the left or the right seem to be lacking such foundations.  I wonder if the GAO or other such organizations has published any research on this; I am not finding anything yet.
As said above, discussing Bill Gates in all this is foolish.  He already made his money.  All his wealth in in protected tax shelters or whatever his army of accountants and lawyers set up.  The target of these taxes is not the wealthy, but the people who are trying to get wealthy.  High taxes on the wealthy is essentially a barrier to becoming wealthy.  If you want to create an aristocrat class in the US and keep all those poor people poor, by all means tax the "rich".  It sounds good, but does not do what people think it does.  Same thing with onerous govt regulations.  Big business with larger staffs is more able to comply with regulations.  Small businesses have more difficulty.  Again, it is a barrier to entry of a market and ends up protecting big business.  

If a business owner thinks they might need to hire one more person to help the business, but taxes go up 10% on him, do you think he will hire anyone?  On the other hand, if taxes remain constant, he might hire that person and pay more in payroll taxes and increase productivity which generates more income and sales taxes.  

If an investor has some money in an asset and would like to sell it and invest in something else, he isn't going to do that if the capital gains taxes just jumped up to 35%.  However, if the tax rate was only 10%, he might go ahead and cash out, paying the lower rate, and invest in a new business which would hire people and generate income.  

A family business owned by the father is doing good, but doesn't make a high profit.  The father dies.  Does the family keep it going?  Or do they sell it off to pay the 50% inheritance taxes the govt imposes and shut the business down letting the employees go?  Which option generates more tax revenue in the long run?
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MechAg94

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #15 on: December 19, 2010, 01:17:38 AM »
Another example might be this:  A company like Dow Chemical or DuPont has a choice.  They can add on to a plant in the US to produce a chemical for profit or they can build a plant overseas and ship it here.  If the cost of doing business in the US increases because we raised taxes or added useless regulations, the answer becomes obvious and the jobs and investment in this country goes elsewhere.

IMO, a similar dilemma occurs with the threat of new taxes or new regulations.  If companies can't plan for the new future because Congress is constantly debating new taxes or extending taxes, it creates a lot of doubt and discourages new investment.  IMO, that is why extending the current tax rates was a mistake.  It only pushes the debate off a few years.
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makattak

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #16 on: December 19, 2010, 01:35:32 AM »
IMO, a similar dilemma occurs with the threat of new taxes or new regulations. If companies can't plan for the new future because Congress is constantly debating new taxes or extending taxes, it creates a lot of doubt and discourages new investment.  IMO, that is why extending the current tax rates was a mistake.  It only pushes the debate off a few years.

I've said this many times already, but I'll say it again:

The economy is forward looking. Businesses (at least successful ones) don't make their decisions for the future based off what the conditions are now. They base their decisions on what they think the future conditions will be.

Thus, even though taxes aren't going up right now (except the inheritance tax, and don't get me started on that stupidity), businesses won't hire or invest because Obama basically said: "Ok, you can keep your money now, but we're coming after you in two years."

You know what that means? Make as much money as you can in these two years, but don't plan long term. Just like we saw people buying houses like mad until the tax credit expired and then a total collapse of housing sales, we'll see a similar pattern. Companies will shift as much profit into the present as they can (yes, companies can do such things) in order to avoid the taxes in the future.
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Monkeyleg

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #17 on: December 19, 2010, 01:43:17 AM »
I've read time and again that the tax cuts in 1920, the Kennedy tax cuts, the Reagan tax cuts and the Bush II tax cuts all resulted in increased revenues to the .gov.

Here's one example of such an article: http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2003/08/the-historical-lessons-of-lower-tax-rates

To assess the accuracy of the article, it would be necessary to find out what other factors might have contributed to increased revenues that were completely independent of the tax cuts. The examples presented, though, do counter the argument that revenues decline.

The tax vs. revenue arguments, though, are mostly backwards. They start with the argument that tax rates are either too high or too low, and that revenues to .gov will increase or decrease. That's the wrong way to look at revenues.

I don't look at my own situation and say, "I need to raise my income this year." Rather, I look at my income and say, "this is what I can afford this year. If I need more of something, I'm going to have to figure out how to get more money."  This is not what the government is doing. Congress is saying "we need more money," and then they'll try to figure out where to spend additional funds if they get them. If you give them more money, they will spend it.

I haven't heard anyone in congress or the administration explain why the government needs more money in 2011 than it did in 2010 (except for Obamacare, etc). Why do we need to continually give the government more?

Quote
Companies will shift as much profit into the present as they can (yes, companies can do such things) in order to avoid the taxes in the future.

It's not just companies that do this. I'm trying to pay myself as much as possible in bonuses this month so as to take advantage of as many tax credits available to me for this year. I'll then lend the money back to the corporation on January 2nd, and take some out each month in lieu of salary for several months, "tax free".

It shouldn't require juggling acts like this to keep a reasonable amount of the money I make.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2010, 05:46:18 PM by Monkeyleg »

roo_ster

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #18 on: December 19, 2010, 09:08:37 AM »
Beware of GAO studies on the effects of tax changes, as they are required to assume no human re-action to the change in tax rates/law.  IOW, if tax rates go up 25%, they must report a +25% bump in revenue and if they go down 25%, they must report a -25% hit in revenues.  If they institute a new tax on something, they can not postulate any substitution effects.

Quote from: ML
It's not just companies that do this. I'm trying to pay myself as much as possible in bonuses this month so as to take advantage of as many tax credits available to me for this year. I'll then lend the money back to the corporation on January 2nd, and take some out each month in lieu of salary for several months, "tax free".

It shouldn't require juggling acts like this to keep a reasonable amount of the money I make.

Now, this shows how lame the above GAO/gov't requirement is.  ML sees the path ahead and does his best to optimize benefits to him, not fulfill the GAO's expectations.  Not to denigrate ML, but he is but one small player who has changed his behavior in response to gov't policy in a way to benefit him & his, rather than marching forward like a lemming or just turning like a cog in a machine.   The wealthier and bigger the taxpaying entity, the more they can afford to invest in folks to make such manipulations. 

OTOH, lowering tax rates makes such manipulations less lucrative, one sees less avoidance, and revenues don;t drop as much as expected. of them.  One fine example of this is Russia, which used to have a convoluted "progressive" tax system so byzantine, some earnings were taxed at greater than 100%.  Tax avoidance was rampant, pretty much a national pastime, like it is in other corrupt high-tax countries.  Russia then lowers the rate to a flat 15%...and sees revenues go through the roof.  If they were doing GAO accounting, they ought to have lost revenue, but so many folks who figured 100+% taxation was worth vigorous tax avoidance figured a 15% tax wasn;t worth the effort to avoid.
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roo_ster

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Daniel964

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #19 on: December 19, 2010, 10:07:39 AM »
From a personal point of view this is what not raising my taxes has done.

First off my wife and I are far from rich.

Between the two of us we make about 62,000 a year. We feel we are doing pretty good through hard work and saveing most of our spare cash by not wasteing it.

We took 200 dollars and bought food with it to donate to a homeless shelter. We will probably do other things throughout the year to help others.

If our taxes went up we would be less likely to donate to others that need the help as we would be more worried about ourselves at that point.

I'm not sure if thats the kind of info your looking for but it's how it affects us

roo_ster

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #20 on: December 19, 2010, 11:00:20 AM »
From a personal point of view this is what not raising my taxes has done.

First off my wife and I are far from rich.

Between the two of us we make about 62,000 a year. We feel we are doing pretty good through hard work and saveing most of our spare cash by not wasteing it.

We took 200 dollars and bought food with it to donate to a homeless shelter. We will probably do other things throughout the year to help others.

If our taxes went up we would be less likely to donate to others that need the help as we would be more worried about ourselves at that point.

I'm not sure if thats the kind of info your looking for but it's how it affects us

Nope, insight into human thought processes, reaction to incentives, and concrete action is worthless.  Unless you have "PhD" following your name and the data was published by either gov't functionaries or analogous folks at a university, it has no value.

Move along and pay the taxes your betters think appropriate!
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roo_ster

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MillCreek

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #21 on: December 19, 2010, 11:38:09 AM »
It only pushes the debate off a few years.

Boy, if this isn't politicians in a nutshell.  Push the problem out a few years since taking hard action now may get you unelected. I think of this every time I read about the Social Security system and how we should be taking some actions now to forestall a coming implosion a few years down the road.  But talking about cutting benefits, raising payroll taxes or pushing back the entitlement age is a third-rail of American politics.

My dad was an aeronautical engineer at Boeing for 40 years (1950-1990).  He retired at age 65.  On the day of his retirement, between his guaranteed Boeing pension and Social Security, he was clearing more per year than active employment at Boeing.  I have no guaranteed pension and my 401(k) has lost hundreds of thousands of dollars over the decades in various 'market corrections'. I just received my Social Security statement, and if I retire at 67 (16 years from now), I should be receiving $ 2330 per month.  I wonder if I will be collecting it.
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Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

drewtam

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #22 on: December 19, 2010, 09:15:11 PM »
Too late, the SS game is already up. There is no gentle landing option anymore*. In 2009 and 2010 SS has moved to giving out more than it receives. This is about 5-10years ahead of schedule, due to the depression we are going through.

It will not move into positive territory again, unless benefits are cut.
There is ample evidence that we are on the wrong side of the tax curve, raising taxes will not increase revenues to cover the short fall.
Our gov't is quickly moving into limits of market debt risk. So borrowing will not be an option to cover the short fall in a significant way.

Please return to your seat and buckle your seatbelts, we expect heavy turbulence ahead.


*Gentle landing options = transitioning to a defined contribution plan without cutting benefits for those people who have been given an expectation of benefit.
I’m not saying I invented the turtleneck. But I was the first person to realize its potential as a tactical garment. The tactical turtleneck! The… tactleneck!

P5 Guy

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #23 on: December 19, 2010, 09:17:16 PM »
In my mind, the question is moot.

The taking of another's wealth is immoral.  The question of how many golden eggs we can take from the goose without killing it does not apply when the goose is a citizen and not a resource to be managed like some sort of commodity.

People just shouldn't be taking other people's stuff.  Any other debate is a diversion.

DD

Wasn't BHO going to remove the cap on the payroll tax? And now BHO is giving us poor peons a "Payroll Tax Holiday"?
What kind of split personality does this guy have?

Doggy Daddy

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Re: Unbiased analysis of tax cuts for the well-off
« Reply #24 on: December 19, 2010, 11:12:33 PM »
Wasn't BHO going to remove the cap on the payroll tax? And now BHO is giving us poor peons a "Payroll Tax Holiday"?
What kind of split personality does this guy have?


He's just progressing forward omnidirectionally.

DD
Would you exchange
a walk-on part in a war
for a lead role in a cage?
-P.F.