the Housing Market

[Art Eatman]

http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Archives/20060505.html

As has been said before, the crunch is not everywhere--but where it's crunching, there're a lot of crushed nuts.

Art

[BozemanMT]

I'm supposed to feel bad about this?  You play with fire, you get burned.
When they say it's different this time, ti's not different.
And who the heck pays 600k for a condo?

"What is becoming apparent, market watchers say, is how big a part speculators played in the region's real estate boom of the past few years. Not just condominiums, but also townhouses and single-family houses, were snapped up by investors using no-money-down financing and nontraditional loans. They helped send prices soaring at unprecedented rates. And now many are trying to sell, or rent at a loss. Some may eventually dump properties at low prices to get rid of them. That could weigh down values for everyone.

duh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mtnbkr]

*They've* been screaming "bubble" for the past 3-5 years and now things are finally slowing down in the housing investment market.  Unfortunately for my coworker, who believed the predictions 3 years ago, he missed out on the $200k+ he would've made had he bought a house when he first moved up here and sold it today (or simply having a lower mortgage payment compared to buying today).  

On the other hand, my parents' house sold in less than 24hrs last week in SW Va, a "depressed" region of Virginia.  Not only did it sell, the buyers offered more than asking price.  This is in a mature neighborhood (30yo+ houses) and not the "trendy" part of the county.

Chris

[The Rabbi]

As has been said before, the crunch is not everywhere--but where it's crunching, there're a lot of crushed nuts.

Art

This is just the beginning.  As rates rise or stay higher buyers will disappear.  With homebuilders having gone nuts over the last 3 years there is huge inventory that isnt even on the market yet.

[Art Eatman]

I read one squib, maybe a year back, that some 68% of interest-only loans in California were made to sub-priime borrowers.  People who normally would not be allowed to borrow the money.

If these people start getting repoed, there's gonna be blowback on such as Fannie Mae.  And Fannie Mae is already in trouble...

Interesting times.

Art

[cfabe]

Since I have just been in the house market, I did some reading into this to make sure I was not buying at a bad time. I found a website zillow.com that aggregates county sales data for real estate nationwide. Neat site. One of their tools was an average market value thing that showed me this:


Notice the spike in the US data, and the distinct lack of it in both the ohio and the local area I'm in. I'm comfortable that in my area, the 'bubble' is not about to burst, but rather it's a market with stable growth.

[Sylvilagus Aquaticus]

I'm glad I live in DFW where it's at least relatively stable (and, for me, affordable) in the old 'burb I live in. Right, jfruser?

My house was a smokin' deal when I bought it in January. Got it for less than it was on the market for 3 years ago. A lot less.

Regards,
Rabbit.

[Bogie]

Hey, look at the bright side. In some areas, you're talking $600/square foot.
 
Too many folks have been investing in too few things. The _really_ interesting thing is going to happen when all the folks who got adjustable mortgages at 3% get hit with 8% rates... Gonna be a LOT of repos...
 
Bogie
6.25 fixed

[doczinn]

The _really_ interesting thing is going to happen when all the folks who got adjustable mortgages at 3% get hit with 8% rates... Gonna be a LOT of repos...

That's when I may finally be able to afford a house.

[K Frame]

Given the rate of growth in the DC area since September 11, and the projected rate of growth for the forseeable future, this market at least should hold its value longer than other areas.

Last year the area added over 77,000 new jobs in the Federal sector alone, and many of the contractors around here are growing by leaps and bounds as money comes in from gov't contracts.