Trouble in Ukraine

[AJ Dual]

Quasi-persecution... whatever you want to call it. However I don't think for a second it had anything to do with social concerns over homosexuality in Russia.

[Balog]

Quasi-persecution... whatever you want to call it. However I don't think for a second it had anything to do with social concerns over homosexuality in Russia.

One law, prohibiting the spread of "gay propaganda" to children in public. "ZOMG THEY CAN'T TALK ABOUT THEIR SEXUAL CHOICES TO MINORS IN PUBLIC, IT'S LIKE THE INQUISITION!!!!!" But forcing Christians to take part and/or perform gay weddings and Catholic hospitals to pay for and perform abortions is totally cool, and anyone saying it might be an infringement of liberty and conscience (let alone persecution) is just a paranoid and hateful homophobic misogynist.

Not upset with you, but the whole situation is just eye rollingly ridiculous.

[roo_ster]

Don't you know?  It is World War G.  And World War T.  We must invade Germany Russia to save the Jews gays and gypsies trannies!(1)
http://isteve.blogspot.com/2013/08/world-war-gay.html
http://takimag.com/article/world_war_t_steve_sailer/print#axzz2rALcQYIc




(1) Sometimes the last couple centuries seem to have been the result of several games of Geopolitical Mad Lib.

[White Horseradish]

One law, prohibiting the spread of "gay propaganda" to children in public. "ZOMG THEY CAN'T TALK ABOUT THEIR SEXUAL CHOICES TO MINORS IN PUBLIC, IT'S LIKE THE INQUISITION!!!!!"

Given that the law does not actually define what this gay propaganda is (and, according to surveys, 90% of the country doesn't know what it is, either), it's a sort of a universal gag law. My favorite example, so far, was the complaint made under the law against a dairy company for having rainbows on their packaging. So, yeah. Not nearly as harmless as you might think.

[MillCreek]

But forcing Christians to take part and/or perform gay weddings and Catholic hospitals to pay for and perform abortions is totally cool.

I worked for many years for a very large Catholic healthcare chain, and I sure cannot remember the facilities there being forced to pay for and perform elective abortions.  There are some narrow therapeutic indications in which some Catholic hospitals allow some types of pregnancy terminations to be done at their facilities, usually in the context of saving the life of the mother.

[Balog]

Given that the law does not actually define what this gay propaganda is (and, according to surveys, 90% of the country doesn't know what it is, either), it's a sort of a universal gag law. My favorite example, so far, was the complaint made under the law against a dairy company for having rainbows on their packaging. So, yeah. Not nearly as harmless as you might think.

Meh, stupid laws are stupid. Hardly merits the zomg outrage.

I worked for many years for a very large Catholic healthcare chain, and I sure cannot remember the facilities there being forced to pay for and perform elective abortions.  There are some narrow therapeutic indications in which some Catholic hospitals allow some types of pregnancy terminations to be done at their facilities, usually in the context of saving the life of the mother.

That was then, this is now.

[MillCreek]

That was then, this is now.

OK, I am going to need to see some actual citations to this.  Or are you referring to abortion coverage being provided through the healthcare insurance plans for the employees of these hospitals, as is common for many insurance plans?

[Balog]

OK, I am going to need to see some actual citations to this.  Or are you referring to abortion coverage being provided through the healthcare insurance plans for the employees of these hospitals, as is common for many insurance plans?

The second, although I've frequently seen the same folks bemoaning Russia's treatment of gays (they usually don't mention the House of Saud's treatment of gays, guess it's racist to criticize brown folks who aren't republicans) who have no objection to forcing catholic hospitals to perform elective abortions.

ETA: and with the Catholics specifically there is also birth control via insurance.

[Hawkmoon]

Is Kerry on crack?

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/30/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Does this idiot really believe that Russia is in any way interested in a political solution? What's needed is for NATO to put a massive force along the new "border". We already diddled while Russia took Crimea.

I am disgusted.

[RoadKingLarry]

Is Kerry on crack?

Kerry's crack is Kerry. The man is so in love with himself and the sound of his own voice he makes a classic, text book narcissist look like Mother Theresa and Ghandi's love child.

[Boomhauer]

Is Kerry on crack?

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/30/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Does this idiot really believe that Russia is in any way interested in a political solution? What's needed is for NATO to put a massive force along the new "border". We already diddled while Russia took Crimea.

I am disgusted.

Butbutbut Imperialism! War mongering! Bush's fault!

[roo_ster]

Is Kerry on crack?

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/30/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Does this idiot really believe that Russia is in any way interested in a political solution? What's needed is for NATO to put a massive force along the new "border". We already diddled while Russia took Crimea.

I am disgusted.

Nato does not have many toys to bring to the game.  The only countries with decent heavy armor units in europe are the former easern bloc coubtries.  The ones that just wiped the floor with our strykers inthe war games late last year.

And i really dont want to be a party pooper but are serious people really contemplating starting a war with russia over their flipping a majority russian province and russias law against enabling pedophiles.  Putin is a right bastard but his actions thus far have precedent in kosovo.

[makattak]

Nato does not have many toys to bring to the game.  The only countries with decent heavy armor units in europe are the former easern bloc coubtries.  The ones that just wiped the floor with our strykers inthe war games late last year.

And i really dont want to be a party pooper but are serious people really contemplating starting a war with russia over their flipping a majority russian province and russias law against enabling pedophiles.  Putin is a right bastard but his actions thus far have precedent in kosovo.

Putin is a chess player. He knows that his opponent lacks will even though the US is militarily capable of putting him in his place.

So long as he doesn't rock the boat much, he can achieve his goals. My bet is he spaces his conquests out to give the furor time to die down. Probably will not wait as long after Crimea as he did for Georgia, though. I give better than 50% odds he has most of imperial Russia back before The Won's term is complete.

NATO? Half those odds that Putin shatters it (25/75). I seriously doubt that even a direct invasion of one of the new NATO signatories would bring military retribution on Russia. Europe doesn't actually care and Obama actively hates our allies.

I don't think Finland (as I read the "rumors" about his aims) is one of Putin's goals, but, at this point, the only thing that will stop him is his own capabilities for projecting force and holding the territory. No other country with the capability of stopping him has the will to do so.

[Nick1911]

Putin is a chess player. He knows that his opponent lacks will even though the US is militarily capable of putting him in his place.

So long as he doesn't rock the boat much, he can achieve his goals. My bet is he spaces his conquests out to give the furor time to die down. Probably will not wait as long after Crimea as he did for Georgia, though. I give better than 50% odds he has most of imperial Russia back before The Won's term is complete.

NATO? Half those odds that Putin shatters it (25/75). I seriously doubt that even a direct invasion of one of the new NATO signatories would bring military retribution on Russia. Europe doesn't actually care and Obama actively hates our allies.

I don't think Finland (as I read the "rumors" about his aims) is one of Putin's goals, but, at this point, the only thing that will stop him is his own capabilities for projecting force and holding the territory. No other country with the capability of stopping him has the will to do so.

I believe you nailed it.  Timeline might take a bit longer then that, but the general idea is sound.

MAD doctrine only matters if both parties are willing to fight.  If one isn't, the other has great leeway.

[RevDisk]

Putin is a right bastard but his actions thus far have precedent in kosovo.

The Kosovo precedent is a stretch. Realistically, there's zero chance of Pro-Western Ukrainians "ethnically" cleaning Pro-Russian Ukrainians. Serbia was fully intending on doing very bad things towards the local Albanians. Things have calmed down quite a bit, and the Kosovar Albanians haven't generally gone on a rampage killing or driving out Kosovar Serbs. There's some small scale neighborhood stuff, but generally not on the large scale.

Though, I suspect Putin will try to make the same argument. "Poor innocent Slavic brothers have been brutally repressed by evil pro-Western terrorists!" Mostly because the dude could care less if anyone outside the Slavic world believes it. 

Putin is a chess player. He knows that his opponent lacks will even though the US is militarily capable of putting him in his place.

So long as he doesn't rock the boat much, he can achieve his goals. My bet is he spaces his conquests out to give the furor time to die down. Probably will not wait as long after Crimea as he did for Georgia, though. I give better than 50% odds he has most of imperial Russia back before The Won's term is complete.

NATO? Half those odds that Putin shatters it (25/75). I seriously doubt that even a direct invasion of one of the new NATO signatories would bring military retribution on Russia. Europe doesn't actually care and Obama actively hates our allies.

I don't think Finland (as I read the "rumors" about his aims) is one of Putin's goals, but, at this point, the only thing that will stop him is his own capabilities for projecting force and holding the territory. No other country with the capability of stopping him has the will to do so.

Putin is also playing smart by only taking on folks he knows he can beat. Either by beating up on tiny countries, or invading places that are pro-Russian Slavs. He might flip his lid and invade, say Finland and/or Poland. But I doubt it. If he sticks to beating up tiny countries of no importance or annexing pro-Russian Slavic populations, he'll basically have free reign. Is anyone going to go to war over people that WANT to be annexed? Or are too tiny to matter?

Sure, part of his motivation is becoming Czar Putin the First of the New Greater Russian Empire. The other part is appeasing enough of the population to stay in power.

[roo_ster]

Putin is a chess player. He knows that his opponent lacks will even though the US is militarily capable of putting him in his place.

So long as he doesn't rock the boat much, he can achieve his goals. My bet is he spaces his conquests out to give the furor time to die down. Probably will not wait as long after Crimea as he did for Georgia, though. I give better than 50% odds he has most of imperial Russia back before The Won's term is complete.

NATO? Half those odds that Putin shatters it (25/75). I seriously doubt that even a direct invasion of one of the new NATO signatories would bring military retribution on Russia. Europe doesn't actually care and Obama actively hates our allies.

I don't think Finland (as I read the "rumors" about his aims) is one of Putin's goals, but, at this point, the only thing that will stop him is his own capabilities for projecting force and holding the territory. No other country with the capability of stopping him has the will to do so.

Folks forget that the Georgians started that particular mess.  Poke the bear and don't be surprised you get bit.

[seeker_two]

Give each NATO country bordering Russia ten tactical nukes....either short-range missles or demolition packages (i.e. suitcase nukes) to use in case of invasion. That should blunt the Russian appetite.

[Hawkmoon]

... the only thing that will stop him is his own capabilities for projecting force and holding the territory. No other country with the capability of stopping him has the will to do so.

That about sums it up.

[MillCreek]

So now the Kremlin says that ethnic Russians in Ukraine are calling upon the Russians to save them from harassment and danger from the Ukrainians.  This sure sounds like Hitler using the same excuse with the ethnic Germans in Central and Eastern Europe as a pretext for invasion.  Along with the increasing clashes in Ukraine, I am more and more convinced that an invasion will occur.

[RoadKingLarry]

Next up.

Ethinc Chinese in Tiawan call for help from mainland China giving them casue to rescue thier people and invade the island, Obama will speak sternly about it.

Ethnic Mexicans in Southern US claim opression, Mexico invades So-Cal and Texas. Obama will speak sternly about it and condem US citizens for fighting the foreign aid from Mexico and prosecute anyone who might have actively resisted.

[Perd Hapley]

The pastor of my church has been in Kiev all week. He's expected back on Tuesday.

Interesting timing.

[Hawkmoon]

So now the Kremlin says that ethnic Russians in Ukraine are calling upon the Russians to save them from harassment and danger from the Ukrainians.  This sure sounds like Hitler using the same excuse with the ethnic Germans in Central and Eastern Europe as a pretext for invasion.  Along with the increasing clashes in Ukraine, I am more and more convinced that an invasion will occur.

Russia will use this as an excuse to invade. And the western media won't point out that when Muslim separatists in certain areas of Russia did what Putin has instigated these Russian-speaking Ukrainians to do, Russia reacted with overwhelming force, and the west basically said, "Oh, yeah, turrurists, go get 'em, yay, rah."

Putin's hypocrisy is immense, but it's no match for the hypocrisy of the western media. And politicians.

[Hawkmoon]

Next up.

Ethinc Chinese in Tiawan call for help from mainland China giving them casue to rescue thier people and invade the island, Obama will speak sternly about it.

Ethnic Mexicans in Southern US claim opression, Mexico invades So-Cal and Texas. Obama will speak sternly about it and condem US citizens for fighting the foreign aid from Mexico and prosecute anyone who might have actively resisted.

Don't forget Quebec ...

[bedlamite]

Don't forget Quebec ...

So the French are going to preemptively surrender to Canada?

[Scout26]

Nato does not have many toys to bring to the game.  The only countries with decent heavy armor units in europe are the former easern bloc coubtries.  The ones that just wiped the floor with our strykers inthe war games late last year.

This.

We have ONE, count them ONE, Battalion of M1 Abrams in Europe.  Don't have any troops to man them (they are there for units to use when they rotate through for training at Grafenwoehr).  We have ONE, count them ONE, Regiment of Strykers.  Which as Roo_ster pointed out, got mauled by every single heavy armor unit from every NATO country in last years war games.  I mean good ol' fashioned *expletive deleted*ss-kickings.  We have, at last count 33,000 troops  in Germany.

Germany has THREE, count them THREE, Battalion of Leopards.  And three divisions.  The entire Heer (army) is 80,000 troops total. 

Not sure what the Poles have, but I can't see them as real ambitious to go to/through the Ukraine to protect them.  Especially with Russia friendly Belarus right on their border.

So to sum up:  There ain't much we or NATO could do militarily to Russia to stop what they are doing and any attempt to do so simply fills the Butcher's Bill for no gain/good purpose. 

And I really don't like the idea of Putin Sudetenlanding the Crimea and eastern parts of Ukraine, but we are to weak to stop it.

It's up to Ukraine to do what they can, should that result in an all out invasion, that *Might* change things.  But given the weak waffle we have in the White House, it's doubtful.