Italian scientist predicts quake and got silenced

[gunsmith]

the next time some European tries to tell you they have more freedom
tell them about free speech, why was his predictions removed from the net?

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L6566682.htm



Italy muzzled scientist who foresaw quake
06 Apr 2009 11:22:00 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Gavin Jones

ROME, April 6 (Reuters) - An Italian scientist predicted a major earthquake around L'Aquila weeks before disaster struck the city on Monday, killing dozens of people, but was reported to authorities for spreading panic among the population.

The first tremors in the region were felt in mid-January and continued at regular intervals, creating mounting alarm in the medieval city, about 100 km (60 miles) east of Rome.

Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor's anger.

Giuliani, who based his forecast on concentrations of radon gas around seismically active areas, was reported to police for "spreading alarm" and was forced to remove his findings from the Internet.

Italy's Civil Protection agency held a meeting of the Major Risks Committee, grouping scientists charged with assessing such risks, in L'Aquila on March 31 to reassure the townspeople.

"The tremors being felt by the population are part of a typical sequence ... (which is) absolutely normal in a seismic area like the one around L'Aquila," the civil protection agency said in a statement on the eve of that meeting.

"It is useful to underline that it is not in any way possible to predict an earthquake," it said, adding that the agency saw no reason for alarm but was nonetheless effecting "continuous monitoring and attention".

As the media asked questions about the authorities' alleged failure to safeguard the population ahead of the quake, the head of the National Geophysics Institute dismissed Giuliani's predictions.

"Every time there is an earthquake there are people who claim to have predicted it," he said. "As far as I know nobody predicted this earthquake with precision. It is not possible to predict earthquakes."

Enzo Boschi said the real problem for Italy was a long-standing failure to take proper precautions despite a history of tragic quakes.

"We have earthquakes but then we forget and do nothing. It's not in our culture to take precautions or build in an appropriate way in areas where there could be strong earthquakes," he said.

[AZRedhawk44]

Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor's anger.

Giuliani, who based his forecast on concentrations of radon gas around seismically active areas, was reported to police for "spreading alarm" and was forced to remove his findings from the Internet.

Big difference between just predicting a quake... and driving around in the Blues Brothers' mobile with a PA system, crowing about the end of the world.

He also didn't predict a date.  He just said there would be a quake.  I could go do the same thing along the San Andreas line, causing a panic, but with no real justification.  Sure, one will definitely come some day.  But probably not today.

The removal of his predictions was probably a result of his Blues Brothers tour around town and a quiet compromise to avoid getting arrested.

[gunsmith]

the driving around town with bullhorns is probably the old Roman style bulletin board, but yeah, annoying to us Yankee's, they're probably used to it though.
However, going on the net and removing his posted predictions, on his own website!
That's just plain wrong.  I guess they have a democracy over there but not as we know it
(its life Jim, but not as we know it)

Another thing, he was right wasn't he.

[AZRedhawk44]

the driving around town with bullhorns is probably the old Roman style bulletin board, but yeah, annoying to us Yankee's, they're probably used to it though.
However, going on the net and removing his posted predictions, on his own website!
That's just plain wrong.  I guess they have a democracy over there but not as we know it
(its life Jim, but not as we know it)

Another thing, he was right wasn't he.

K, so then the US is then repressive since I can't drive around town and shout about the end of the world using a PA system.  Sounds like Italians have more freedom of speech than we do.

I'm confused and searching desperately for a point somewhere in the midst of this...

[gunsmith]

K, so then the US is then repressive since I can't drive around town and shout about the end of the world using a PA system.  Sounds like Italians have more freedom of speech than we do.

I'm confused and searching desperately for a point somewhere in the midst of this...

I didn't say the US is repressing free speech, how the heck do you get that from my post?
The POINT was A he predicted it B They removed it from his own website!

When I lived in Ireland ( for two years ) I learned that different cultures have different ideas about freedom of speech and the press, and different ideas about noise pollution.  For instance when I lived in Ireland there were no laws against riding around yelling things out of a loudspeaker, I looked it up because the neighbors on the dole had noisy annoying "rave" music blasting all night every night!
I was the only one who cared and was annoyed, everyone else in the building simply ignored it.
The Gardai ( police ) told me they can't do anything about it as well.

Also, when I was over there, two guys were arrested for selling newspapers ( an phoblact, IRA newspaper)
again, free speech is different for us ( MEANING WE HAVE MORE FREEDOM NOT LESS, CAPP'S SO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT I'M SAYING THIS TIME )

[gunsmith]

As a side note, I used to pull the noisy tennants fuse when they were keeping me awake
I would put them back on my way out the door.

[AZRedhawk44]

I didn't say the US is repressing free speech, how the heck do you get that from my post?

No... you said Europe was repressive in their freedom of speech.

I demonstrated that he did something most of us consider disruptive of the peace (driving around with a PA).

You insisted that was acceptable behavior in Europe.

I proposed that Europe must be more enlightened than us in their view of free speech then, since we tend to not allow that behavior.  The point of that statement was to present an argumentum ad absurdum response to your statements that:
1.  Europe was repressing this man's freedom of speech, and;
2.  Driving around with a PA is normal behavior.

Regardless... the guy's a crackpot if he didn't give a date for his prediction.  Saying Radon=earthquake makes about as much sense as saying Globular Warming=Less Pirates.  He got silenced for making unfounded claims of doom and happened to get lucky in his prediction.

[agricola]

Saying there will be a quake in Italy is not exactly news, any more than it is in California one imagines.

[Teknoid]

Regardless... the guy's a crackpot if he didn't give a date for his prediction.  Saying Radon=earthquake makes about as much sense as saying Globular Warming=Less Pirates.  He got silenced for making unfounded claims of doom and happened to get lucky in his prediction.

According to the scientists, radon increase is a valid predictor of quakes. No wonder we're seeing more pirates. I always said that globular warming stuff was malarkey.

http://tc.engr.wisc.edu/UER/uer96/author3/index.html


There are a variety of geophysical precursors; however, only five of them will be discussed. The geophysical precursors that will be reviewed are the velocity of the P- wave changes, ground uplift and tilt, radon emissions increase, electrical resistivity of rocks decrease, and underground water level fluctuates. In addition, how these geophysical precursors relate to the five stages of an earthquake will be discussed. Figure 2 shows how four of the geophysical precursors vary during each stage of an earthquake.

[MicroBalrog]

I proposed that Europe must be more enlightened than us in their view of free speech then, since we tend to not allow that behavior

Gunsmith's argument was actually pretty easy to understand. He argued that the actual act of driving around with a PA and making announcements very loudly was acceptable in some countries outside the United States (I don't know about Ireland – in Israel vehicles with PA are very often used for door-to-door salesmanship, religious preaching and political campaigning), so, possibly, the man was being harassed by the authorities for the content of his speech rather than the manner of expression. I think gunsmith's point is reasonable.

[gunsmith]

No... you said Europe was repressive in their freedom of speech.

I demonstrated that he did something most of us consider disruptive of the peace (driving around with a PA).

You insisted that was acceptable behavior in Europe.

I proposed that Europe must be more enlightened than us in their view of free speech then, since we tend to not allow that behavior.  The point of that statement was to present an argumentum ad absurdum response to your statements that:
1.  Europe was repressing this man's freedom of speech, and;
2.  Driving around with a PA is normal behavior.

Regardless... the guy's a crackpot if he didn't give a date for his prediction.  Saying Radon=earthquake makes about as much sense as saying Globular Warming=Less Pirates.  He got silenced for making unfounded claims of doom and happened to get lucky in his prediction.

OK then, I guess you don't understand, but everyone else does, so I will try to make it even more simple.

I do not know if bullhorns are acceptable in ITALY.
I know they are not acceptable in the U.S.A.
I know DIFFERENT COUNTRIES have standards of behavior that are not acceptable here and I wonder if that is the case in ITALY wrt bullhorns.

THE ITALIAN AUTHORITIES REMOVED CONTENT FROM HIS WEBSITE

THE ITALIAN AUTHORITIES REMOVED CONTENT FROM HIS WEBSITE

THE ITALIAN AUTHORITIES REMOVED CONTENT FROM HIS WEBSITE

THE ITALIAN AUTHORITIES REMOVED CONTENT FROM HIS WEBSITE

THE ITALIAN AUTHORITIES REMOVED CONTENT FROM HIS WEBSITE

THE ITALIAN AUTHORITIES REMOVED CONTENT FROM HIS WEBSITE


THE ITALIAN AUTHORITIES REMOVED CONTENT FROM HIS WEBSITE
When I say that they took content off his website that means I am talking about his website, it doesn't mean I am talking about his use of bullhorns.

Again, just to make it as simple as I can for you.
ITALIAN
GOV'T REMOVE PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE FROM WEBSITE FROM A MAN WITH A WEBSITE.

ME AM NOT TALKING ABOUT BULLHORN ...
ME TALKING ABOUT INTERNET...
ME THINK GOV'T RESTRICTION ON FREE SPEECH IS BAD.
( ME THINK EXCEPTION FOR CHILD PORN CAN BE MADE BECAUSE CHILD PORN BAD)

IF ME NEED TO MAKE MORE SIMPLE ME NO KNOW IF ME CAN.

[gunsmith]

SO YOU SEE, oops, so you see, I could care less about the bullhorns, those crazy Europeans have different ideas then we do.

I really don't know if it acceptable to use bullhorns in Italy, I do not care!!!!
I don't care if he is a Mad Scientist or brilliant, I do not care if he was right or wrong as far as prediction goes. Well, since he was right maybe I am willing to give him the benefit of a doubt.

However, in the USA, if some gov't entity went on a private website and removed a quake prediction
there would be heck to pay.

[AZRedhawk44]

Testy, testy.  No need to resort to injun-pidgin-talk.

Let's disect fact from supposition:

ROME, April 6 (Reuters) - An Italian scientist predicted a major earthquake around L'Aquila weeks before disaster struck the city on Monday, killing dozens of people, but was reported to authorities for spreading panic among the population.

Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor's anger.

Giuliani, who based his forecast on concentrations of radon gas around seismically active areas, was reported to police for "spreading alarm" and was forced to remove his findings from the Internet.

He alarmed people by driving around in a van.  They were bothered/consternated/panicked by this method of communication and the message he delivered.  They riled up the city council and mayor.  Mayor needs to "do something" so he sends the police.

Here is my supposition and interpretation of events following:

Police present options:  Either be arrested for disturbing the peace, or shut yer trap.  Oh, by the way, take this stuff off your website.

Man WILLINGLY took stuff off his website.  Police didn't do it.  He didn't challenge the legal system to test the limits of his free speech.  He folded under a threat.

That has no bearing on freedom of speech in Europe.  Because it established no case law.  I could find lots of parallel stories in the US if I tried.  There was a college student in 2002 that got a visit from our Secret Service for checking out a copy of Mao's "Little Red Book" from the library.  Shall we interpret our own freedom of the press under that particular event?  No case law on that one either.

So, to slow it down a bit for you to get it...

HIM NO BRAYK NO LAWZ.  HIM NO GET UHRESTED.  HIM NO IN TRUBBLE.  HIM CAN TRANSFER WEBSITE TO US OR OTHER NON-EU HOSTING KUMPINY.  HIM CAN PUT IT BACK UP IN EU AND FIGHT DA MAN.

[gunsmith]

Testy, testy.  No need to resort to injun-pidgin-talk.

Let's disect fact from supposition:

He alarmed people by driving around in a van.  They were bothered/consternated/panicked by this method of communication and the message he delivered.  They riled up the city council and mayor.  Mayor needs to "do something" so he sends the police.

Here is my supposition and interpretation of events following:

Police present options:  Either be arrested for disturbing the peace, or shut yer trap.  Oh, by the way, take this stuff off your website.

Man WILLINGLY took stuff off his website.  Police didn't do it.  He didn't challenge the legal system to test the limits of his free speech.  He folded under a threat.

That has no bearing on freedom of speech in Europe.  Because it established no case law.  I could find lots of parallel stories in the US if I tried.  There was a college student in 2002 that got a visit from our Secret Service for checking out a copy of Mao's "Little Red Book" from the library.  Shall we interpret our own freedom of the press under that particular event?  No case law on that one either.

So, to slow it down a bit for you to get it...

HIM NO BRAYK NO LAWZ.  HIM NO GET UHRESTED.  HIM NO IN TRUBBLE.  HIM CAN TRANSFER WEBSITE TO US OR OTHER NON-EU HOSTING KUMPINY.  HIM CAN PUT IT BACK UP IN EU AND FIGHT DA MAN.

LOL!

Thanks for clarifying.

No need for them to panic though, just a massive earthquake that could kill over one hundred people and could cause millions of dollars of damage.
Nope.
No need to worry or alarm people over that.

[Hawkmoon]

Police present options:  Either be arrested for disturbing the peace, or shut yer trap.  Oh, by the way, take this stuff off your website.

Man WILLINGLY took stuff off his website.  Police didn't do it.  He didn't challenge the legal system to test the limits of his free speech.  He folded under a threat.

That has no bearing on freedom of speech in Europe.

Ummm ... I think I detect a slight logical disconnect here.

"Folding under a threat" = WILLINGLY in your lexicon? It doesn't in my lexicon.

BTW ... did anyone mention that he was correct? Yes, I thought someone had pointed that out.

[MechAg94]

Regardless... the guy's a crackpot if he didn't give a date for his prediction.

I'm sorry, but that is nonsense.  If he predicted the location and within a month or two, he is doing pretty good. Calling him a crackpot for not predicting the exact day and time is ridiculous. 

[Tuco]

Big difference between just predicting a quake... and driving around in the Blues Brothers' mobile with a PA system, crowing about the end of the world.

AzRedhawk gets the first laugh of the day.
Hey you - on the bicycle!

But, yeah, we've got it pretty good here.

[HankB]

Perhaps now the guy who made the predictions ought to put something else up on his website - a history of how the authorities squelched him, and the names and contact information of those authorities.

[gunsmith]

Perhaps now the guy who made the predictions ought to put something else up on his website - a history of how the authorities squelched him, and the names and contact information of those authorities.

He would face certain prosecution for that, you see, Europeans are very enlightened and they jail people who criticize local VIP's.

[RoadKingLarry]

Another thing, he was right wasn't he.

Being right when the government is wrong can be a dangerous thing sometimes.

[Iain]

He would face certain prosecution for that, you see, Europeans are very enlightened and they jail people who criticize local VIP's.

Tis a sad thing that the dialogue between Europeans and Americans so often consists of such statements as these. Sadder that often neither side can see that their statements are as bad as the others.

To the original prediction. I've seen these points outlined elsewhere:

1. Wrong date. Also...
2. Wrong location. There was a huge difference between the power of the earthquake at its actual epicentre and his predicted epicentre. Difference between rattling windows and destroyed buildings.
3. Largely abandoned methodology. Radon has not been a useful prediction tool and researchers have moved on to other techniques.

Definitely the first two (and probably the third) suggest that the prediction was never going to be useful in saving lives. In fact it has been suggested that if people had evacuated Sulmora, they might well have gone to L'Aquila. Now as he was out on the date I expect they would have gone home again by the time the quake hit L'Aquila. Maybe not though.

Reliance on what is supposedly a dated and unreliable metholodogy, coupled with getting dates and locations wrong might well indicate that if you predict often enough you might just get something close enough.

In terms of free speech - this is probably as analogous to 'fire in a theater' as it gets. Accurate predictions of earthquakes had better be in place before you evacuate a populace, especially at short notice. People sometimes die in those situations, even if the natural disaster never shows.

[gunsmith]

Ian, I know I was oversimplifying, sorry.

[MicroBalrog]

In terms of free speech - this is probably as analogous to 'fire in a theater' as it gets.

You do realize that ruling got thrown out, yes?

[Iain]

You do realize that ruling got thrown out, yes?

I wasn't. I was barely aware there was such a ruling. I was referencing a common APS response to claims of absolutely unlimited rights to freedom of speech.

[MicroBalrog]

I wasn't. I was barely aware there was such a ruling. I was referencing a common APS response to claims of absolutely unlimited rights to freedom of speech.

The phrase comes from a WWI-era ruling that prohibited people from protesting against the draft. It is not current law.