Author Topic: Do the math on CO2 emissions and Global Warming  (Read 802 times)

mountainclmbr

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Do the math on CO2 emissions and Global Warming
« on: April 09, 2007, 12:17:29 PM »
From Lorne Gunter
National Post

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=034028d4-8a4a-4103-8012-6445ac5ba715

-snip-
Think of the atmosphere as 100 cases of 24 one-litre bottles of water -- 2,400 litres in all.

According to the global warming theory, rising levels of human-produced carbon dioxide are trapping more of the sun's reflected heat in the atmosphere and dangerously warming the planet.

But 99 of our cases would be nitrogen (78%) and oxygen (21%), neither of which are greenhouse gases. Only one case -- just 24 bottles out of 2,400 -- would contain greenhouse gases.

Of the bottles in the greenhouse gas case, 23 would be water vapour.

Water vapour is the most abundant greenhouse gas, yet scientists will admit they understand very little about its impact on global warming. (It may actually help cool the planet: As the earth heats up, water vapour may form into more clouds and reflect solar radiation before it reaches the surface. Maybe. We don't know.)

The very last bottle in that very last case would be carbon dioxide, one bottle out of 2,400.

Carbon dioxide makes up just 0.04% of the entire atmosphere, and most of that -- at least 95% -- is naturally occurring (decaying plants, forest fires, volcanoes, releases from the oceans).

At most, 5% of the carbon dioxide in the air comes from human sources such as power plants, cars, oilsands, etc.

So in our single bottle of carbon dioxide, just 50 ml is man-made carbon dioxide. Out of our model atmosphere of 2,400 litres of water, just about a shot glassful is carbon dioxide put there by humans. And of that miniscule amount, Canada's contribution is just 2% --about 1 ml.

If, as Mr. Dion demands, we honoured our Kyoto commitments and reduced our current CO2 emissions by one-third -- which would involve shutting down all the coal-fired power generating plants in Canada (and living with constant brownouts and blackouts); or taking all the cars or all the commercial vehicles off the roads; or shutting down the oilsands; or some combination of all these -- we would be saving one-third of 1 ml-- the tip of an eyedropper.

And somehow, that is supposed to save the planet from warming; the tip of one eyedropper out of 2,400 bottles of water.

That might be true if carbon dioxide were the most toxic substance ever discovered by man. But it is not. We each expel it every time we exhale.

It's hard to imagine how such a tiny amount of a benign substance could cause the end of the planet. Maybe Mr. Dion could explain that in his next press release.

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El Tejon

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Re: Do the math on CO2 emissions and Global Warming
« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2007, 02:56:12 PM »
Save the planet, ban water!!!

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woodcdi

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Re: Do the math on CO2 emissions and Global Warming
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2007, 04:06:38 PM »
Figger this one out:

If we're making all this Carbon Dioxide, why aren't we depleting our Oxygen at a greater rate? Don't forget, for each molecule of Carbon Dioxide, it takes two Oxygen atoms! I haven't heard a word about that! And I've heard that the planet Mars' polar caps are shrinking lately. Can't blame that on the rovers! They're solar powered. Hmmm... Solar... Do you think? Could it be?

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Desertdog

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Re: Do the math on CO2 emissions and Global Warming
« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2007, 04:24:09 PM »
Quote
It's hard to imagine how such a tiny amount of a benign substance could cause the end of the planet.
That is not a benign substance, that is what green plants feed on.  They take in CO2 and expel O.  Eliminate CO2 and eliminate all animal life, including humans.  Is that the enviors plan?

mountainclmbr

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Re: Do the math on CO2 emissions and Global Warming
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2007, 05:28:19 PM »
CO2, carbon dioxide is a byproduct of the fermentation process such as making beer. CO2 is, therefore, good
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Antibubba

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Re: Do the math on CO2 emissions and Global Warming
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2007, 08:27:36 PM »
Whether or not I agree with arguments for or against global warming, it's a crappy analogy. 
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Iain

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Re: Do the math on CO2 emissions and Global Warming
« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2007, 02:00:02 AM »
Whether or not I agree with arguments for or against global warming, it's a crappy analogy. 

Not only that, it's wrong, and we've been through this before.

Whether or not anthropogenic CO2 is the problem or not, nobody with any real understanding of the issue would argue that CO2 itself is not a significant contributor to the (necessary for life as we know it) greenhouse effect.

When someone tries to describe the role of greenhouse gases in a short article which uses soda bottles as a 'teaching aid' why does the 'perhaps this is massively oversimplified and possibly even total bull***' alarm not ring?
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mountainclmbr

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Re: Do the math on CO2 emissions and Global Warming
« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2007, 05:53:57 AM »
I think that those who don't spot the global socialist agenda behind the GW scheme needed a pretty simple explanation. I would like to see the statistics for man-made GW believers and non-believers for two groups:

1. Atmospheric scientists who rely on GW grants

2. Atmospheric scientists who don't rely on GW grants

There are other data records that point to periodic glacial and interglacial periods (Ice Ages) with another smaller fluctuation with roughly a 1500 year fluctuation, but with some variability. It is impossible to argue that this cycle could be caused by human activity so it gets conveniently swept under the rug. I have never seen any mention for alternate climate change theories on television such as the solar activity theory.
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mountainclmbr

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Re: Do the math on CO2 emissions and Global Warming
« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2007, 06:14:02 AM »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3869753.stm

Sunspots reaching 1,000-year high

By Dr David Whitehouse
BBC News Online science editor

Sunspots are plentiful nowadays


A new analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years.

Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star's activity in the past.


They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth's climate became steadily warmer.


This trend is being amplified by gases from fossil fuel burning, they argue.


'Little Ice Age'

Sunspots have been monitored on the Sun since 1610, shortly after the invention of the telescope. They provide the longest-running direct measurement of our star's activity.


The variation in sunspot numbers has revealed the Sun's 11-year cycle of activity as well as other, longer-term changes.


In particular, it has been noted that between about 1645 and 1715, few sunspots were seen on the Sun's surface.


This period is called the Maunder Minimum after the English astronomer who studied it.



Ice cores record climate trends back beyond human measurements

It coincided with a spell of prolonged cold weather often referred to as the "Little Ice Age". Solar scientists strongly suspect there is a link between the two events - but the exact mechanism remains elusive.


Over the past few thousand years there is evidence of earlier Maunder-like coolings in the Earth's climate - indicated by tree-ring measurements that show slow growth due to prolonged cold.


In an attempt to determine what happened to sunspots during these other cold periods, Dr Sami Solanki and colleagues have looked at concentrations of a form, or isotope, of beryllium in ice cores from Greenland.


The isotope is created by cosmic rays - high-energy particles from the depths of the galaxy.


The flux of cosmic rays reaching the Earth's surface is modulated by the strength of the solar wind, the charged particles that stream away from the Sun's surface.


And since the strength of the solar wind varies over the sunspot cycle, the amount of beryllium in the ice at a time in the past can therefore be used to infer the state of the Sun and, roughly, the number of sunspots.


Latest warming

Dr Solanki is presenting a paper on the reconstruction of past solar activity at Cool Stars, Stellar Systems And The Sun, a conference in Hamburg, Germany.


He says that the reconstruction shows the Maunder Minimum and the other minima that are known in the past thousand years.


But the most striking feature, he says, is that looking at the past 1,150 years the Sun has never been as active as it has been during the past 60 years.


Over the past few hundred years, there has been a steady increase in the numbers of sunspots, a trend that has accelerated in the past century, just at the time when the Earth has been getting warmer.


The data suggests that changing solar activity is influencing in some way the global climate causing the world to get warmer.


Over the past 20 years, however, the number of sunspots has remained roughly constant, yet the average temperature of the Earth has continued to increase.


This is put down to a human-produced greenhouse effect caused by the combustion of fossil fuels.


This latest analysis shows that the Sun has had a considerable indirect influence on the global climate in the past, causing the Earth to warm or chill, and that mankind is amplifying the Sun's latest attempt to warm the Earth.



I see that they did manage to get two plugs in for contribution of CO2. But, if they don't know the mechanism from sunspot activity, how can they separate the effect of CO2. I am sure that even a butterfly flapping its wings will have some effect. The problem is that there is no way of measuring it. The global socialists have to get their plans implemented before the temperature cycle swings the other direction and ruins their party.


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Leatherneck

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Re: Do the math on CO2 emissions and Global Warming
« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2007, 06:30:41 AM »
Quote
Not only that, it's wrong, and we've been through this before.

So where is the error of logic or math, Iain? I must have missed that memo.

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