Author Topic: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely  (Read 12458 times)

MicroBalrog

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #25 on: November 29, 2009, 05:27:43 PM »
Ah, now the argument diverts into a field I am better familiar with.

The whole issue is divisible into two parts:

1. The actual scientific credibility of a given theory.
2. The public credibility of said theory in terms of what actual people will think.

THe Climategate papers cannot, as far as I understand, impact the scientific credibility of AGW overall, but only inasmuch as it pertains to the scientific theories voiced and supported specifically by the CRU researchers. Other researchers may yet present other proof for AGW which may prove to be conclusive. However, the general public will likely not make this distinction, and thus the public credibility of AGW may be adversely impacted.

Consider now John Lott. The dispute in question has little to do with his main thesis (that more gun freedom = less crime, which IMO remains inconclusive). It had to do with a survey about how often firearms  are used to deter (Rather than injure or kill) attackers in self-defense scenarios. In a purely scientific context, this does not really impact his main point. However this (as well as his ostensible behavior as Mary Rosh) has probably hurt his renome.

With AGW, I am not qualified to judge its scientfic value, however, in my view, the cultural impact of the theory on Western civilization has been extremely adverse.
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doczinn

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #26 on: November 29, 2009, 06:11:46 PM »
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6936328.ece

Climate change data dumped
Jonathan Leake, Environment Editor

SCIENTISTS at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have admitted throwing away much of the raw temperature data on which their predictions of global warming are based.

It means that other academics are not able to check basic calculations said to show a long-term rise in temperature over the past 150 years.

The UEA’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU) was forced to reveal the loss following requests for the data under Freedom of Information legislation.

The data were gathered from weather stations around the world and then adjusted to take account of variables in the way they were collected. The revised figures were kept, but the originals — stored on paper and magnetic tape — were dumped to save space when the CRU moved to a new building.

The admission follows the leaking of a thousand private emails sent and received by Professor Phil Jones, the CRU’s director. In them he discusses thwarting climate sceptics seeking access to such data.

In a statement on its website, the CRU said: “We do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (quality controlled and homogenised) data.”

The CRU is the world’s leading centre for reconstructing past climate and temperatures. Climate change sceptics have long been keen to examine exactly how its data were compiled. That is now impossible.

Roger Pielke, professor of environmental studies at Colorado University, discovered data had been lost when he asked for original records. “The CRU is basically saying, ‘Trust us’. So much for settling questions and resolving debates with science,” he said.

Jones was not in charge of the CRU when the data were thrown away in the 1980s, a time when climate change was seen as a less pressing issue. The lost material was used to build the databases that have been his life’s work, showing how the world has warmed by 0.8C over the past 157 years.

He and his colleagues say this temperature rise is “unequivocally” linked to greenhouse gas emissions generated by humans. Their findings are one of the main pieces of evidence used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which says global warming is a threat to humanity.
D. R. ZINN

Waitone

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #27 on: November 29, 2009, 06:38:11 PM »
Interesting comments from a blogger
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/17336

Additional information
http://wattsupwiththat.com/
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drewtam

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #28 on: November 29, 2009, 06:51:42 PM »
...
THe Climategate papers cannot, as far as I understand, impact the scientific credibility of AGW overall, but only inasmuch as it pertains to the scientific theories voiced and supported specifically by the CRU researchers. Other researchers may yet present other proof for AGW which may prove to be conclusive....

I see several people stating this; but from my reading, this issue is much larger than many are willing to admit to themselves.

In what way do the Climategate papers not affect the scientific validity? If the data is missing, then there is no theory. If the model is hacked together with desired results hardcoded into the output, then there is no model.

These two elements (data and computational models) are the bedrock of understanding. Upon this bedrock hang a lot of other research papers which can no longer be trusted, up to and including the IPCC reports. Because those papers and reports will reference this junk science, and will depend on its veracity in order to build upon another floor of research (like a building on a foundation we just learned is sand).

Especially considering that the entire theory system was based on secret data and impenetrable models, no one was able to go back and check it. So they were required to proceed as if it was all true.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2009, 11:40:55 PM by drewtam »
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Waitone

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #29 on: November 29, 2009, 07:16:43 PM »
Quote
The "elites" might bitch about global warming but they arent doing anything to stop it - indeed the main use of the theory appears to be justification for trips to agreeable destinations around the world for entirely futile talking-shops.
I wish our Betters would limit themselves to trips and expensive meals.  We'd all have more money and freedom if they did.  Over here we are busy implementing the green agenda via legislation but more significantly through regulatory process. 

As an example our president in the campaign running up to his election said he intended to shut down the coal industry.  A significant statement when one realizes we get something like 1/2 of our energy from coal fired generation (I reserve the right to be wrong as to the exact percentage but the figure is large).  He gets into office and unheralded in any media he proceeds to federalize the approval process for coal mining permits in West Virginia something that previously was done by the state.  Net effect?  No new permits to mine coal in West Virginia.  What is so important about West Virginia?  West Virginia = coal.

The green movement spurred on by global warming claims is not a grassroots movement.  It has money and lots of it driving its progress.  If fully implemented it will shift huge sums of money in the economy and around the world.  The people fixing to benefit will not base their plays on statistical games.  They will use statistical games but include lots of other assets. 

Global warming is a global power play.
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- Charles Mackay, Scottish journalist, circa 1841

"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it." - John Lennon

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #30 on: November 30, 2009, 08:02:44 AM »
Global warming is a global power play.

The green tree has red roots.
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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #31 on: November 30, 2009, 09:01:36 AM »
I wish our Betters would limit themselves to trips and expensive meals.  We'd all have more money and freedom if they did.  Over here we are busy implementing the green agenda via legislation but more significantly through regulatory process. 

As an example our president in the campaign running up to his election said he intended to shut down the coal industry.  A significant statement when one realizes we get something like 1/2 of our energy from coal fired generation (I reserve the right to be wrong as to the exact percentage but the figure is large).  He gets into office and unheralded in any media he proceeds to federalize the approval process for coal mining permits in West Virginia something that previously was done by the state.  Net effect?  No new permits to mine coal in West Virginia.  What is so important about West Virginia?  West Virginia = coal.

The green movement spurred on by global warming claims is not a grassroots movement.  It has money and lots of it driving its progress.  If fully implemented it will shift huge sums of money in the economy and around the world.  The people fixing to benefit will not base their plays on statistical games.  They will use statistical games but include lots of other assets. 

Global warming is a global power play.

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HankB

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #32 on: November 30, 2009, 09:31:47 AM »
"Of all tyrannies a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victim may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated, but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." -C.S. Lewis
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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #33 on: November 30, 2009, 05:49:33 PM »
On another forum there was a post that showed other organizations temp charts with the same hockey stick uptick.

Are they all using the same data or is there more than one source for surface temps etc...?
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Monkeyleg

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #34 on: November 30, 2009, 06:43:06 PM »
Quote
Are they all using the same data or is there more than one source for surface temps etc...?

Al Gore's book.

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drewtam

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #36 on: November 30, 2009, 10:51:11 PM »
The argument, as I understand it, is these plots are not "raw data". But the processed data, all using the same kind of "tricks to hide the decline". All of the raw data is kept secret or destroyed.
+
Also notice that these graphs only focus on the past 100years. Which is not a serious presentation of climate behavior. One of the essential features of the infamous "hockey stick" chart is that it showed behavior for over a 1000years.
+
You'll notice that the CRU is the only one which goes earlier than 1890.
=
That graph/article is not a serious response and amounts to hand waving, smoke screen, and other choice words. :police:
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MicroBalrog

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #38 on: December 03, 2009, 10:10:05 AM »
The argument, as I understand it, is these plots are not "raw data". But the processed data, all using the same kind of "tricks to hide the decline". All of the raw data is kept secret or destroyed.
+
Also notice that these graphs only focus on the past 100years. Which is not a serious presentation of climate behavior. One of the essential features of the infamous "hockey stick" chart is that it showed behavior for over a 1000years.
+
You'll notice that the CRU is the only one which goes earlier than 1890.
=
That graph/article is not a serious response and amounts to hand waving, smoke screen, and other choice words. :police:

Which is my favorite GW thesis to pick apart.  The earth is believed, scientifically, to be over 4 and a half billion years old.  Someone help me with the math, here.  What percent of 4.5 billion years is 1,000 years (hockey stick graph).  And then, what percent is 130 years (anoteher popular Global Warming graph....).  Just sayin....
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Iain

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #39 on: December 03, 2009, 10:19:11 AM »
Ok, well I'm just sayin that is silly.

The behaviour of the climate over the last 100 years is what is represented for a reason, but there are also reconstructions dating back further. The point is that as best as is understood the climate has been driven over the last 100 years in a way that cannot be explained by the known forcings (milankovitch, solar cycles, PDO...)

This is not a case of only having knowledge of the last hundred years, the graphs present what has happened over the last 100 years due, as it is presently understood, to human activities.

drew - as has been pointed out several times, and by CRU a long time before this leak, some of the raw data that they were receiving FOIA requests for was not theirs to give out. They could give out processed data, but the raw data was not theirs to do that with.

edited - ice core reconstruction from 740,000 prior to 1950 - http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/domec/domec.html
« Last Edit: December 03, 2009, 10:24:38 AM by Iain »
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brimic

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #40 on: December 03, 2009, 10:56:50 AM »
Quote
Ok, well I'm just sayin that is silly.

The behaviour of the climate over the last 100 years is what is represented for a reason, but there are also reconstructions dating back further. The point is that as best as is understood the climate has been driven over the last 100 years in a way that cannot be explained by the known forcings (milankovitch, solar cycles, PDO...)

This is not a case of only having knowledge of the last hundred years, the graphs present what has happened over the last 100 years due, as it is presently understood, to human activities.

100 years of time and data is a tiny blip on the grand scale of geological time. It like me saying that its 10 degrees colder than it was yesterday and then extrapolating that in a little more than a month, all life on earth will cease as we approach absolute zero.
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brimic

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #41 on: December 03, 2009, 10:58:42 AM »
"now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb" -Dark Helmet

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richyoung

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #42 on: December 03, 2009, 01:18:16 PM »
Ok, well I'm just sayin that is silly.

The behaviour of the climate over the last 100 years is what is represented for a reason, but there are also reconstructions dating back further.

Those "proxies" for earlier temperatures is where most of the fraud, "adjusting", etc have occured.  The selected proxies, when examined NOW, via the same methods that are used to compute temperatures THEN, do not result in current observed temperatures.  This is the "divergence" thing they are trying to hide/smooth out.

Furhter, their premise is that increasing further the CO2 concentration will result in catastrophic warming - CO2 has continued to increase in concentration in the atmosphere, but temperatures have been steady or declined for 10-15 years.

Lastly, the WHOLE fake premise that AGW is based on ignores the extinction coefficient of Beer's Law, which actually IS science.

The whole thing is pure B.S. - you don;t have to lie, hide data, make up data, hide your methods/computer programs, cherry pick data, suppress dissent, etc, etc, etc, when you are telling the TRUTH....
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makattak

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #43 on: December 03, 2009, 01:27:07 PM »
Quote
The point is that as best as is understood the climate has been driven over the last 100 years in a way that cannot be explained by the known forcings (milankovitch, solar cycles, PDO...)

If climate scientists said THIS, I'd have no problems.

We don't understand what is happening is quite believable.

We don't understand what is happening and we suspect it may be the result of the influence of mankind's technology is quite believable. (Keep in mind correlation =/= causation.)

We don't understand what is happening but we are SURE it's because of the carbon released by man even though our models have been unable to predict the past ten years due to more things that we don't understand, but we need to ignore the fact that we don't really understand what is happening because we are sure man is causing it so we need to cripple the world and ensure the deaths of millions to stop what we don't understand and aren't really sure would be a bad thing... THAT'S where I part ways with these alarmists.
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drewtam

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #44 on: December 03, 2009, 07:35:23 PM »
Ok, well I'm just sayin that is silly.

The behaviour of the climate over the last 100 years is what is represented for a reason, but there are also reconstructions dating back further.

A remember the first hockey sticks to cover over 1000yrs of reconstructed history. This was important to show that the "current changes" are anomolous compared to significant history. Especially the rate of change for 21st century compared to history.

Ok, well I'm just sayin that is silly.

The behaviour of the climate over the last 100 years is what is represented for a reason, but there are also reconstructions dating back further. The point is that as best as is understood the climate has been driven over the last 100 years in a way that cannot be explained by the known forcings (milankovitch, solar cycles, PDO...)

This is not a case of only having knowledge of the last hundred years, the graphs present what has happened over the last 100 years due, as it is presently understood, to human activities.

drew - as has been pointed out several times, and by CRU a long time before this leak, some of the raw data that they were receiving FOIA requests for was not theirs to give out. They could give out processed data, but the raw data was not theirs to do that with.

edited - ice core reconstruction from 740,000 prior to 1950 - http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/domec/domec.html

"Scientific" raw data that is not shared, cannot be checked. Data that can't be checked independently, is not serious science. Much more than that, it is not a basis for international gov't policy affecting trillions of dollars and billions of lives. The poverty factor, in fact, makes it a case of life or death and should be held to the same stringency and transparency as a new drug. Regardless for the excuse for not sharing, the result is not acceptable.

We now know that "formatted" data has been manipulated in ways that are not honest. We now know that the model used on that data is corrupted. We now know that independent review of papers and skepticism has been repressed and prevented. We now know that the data was deleted rather than surrender it. Not only unethical, its illegal.

There is no excuse for the behavior. And it sets the field back at least 10 years, because of the work built on thier research is now also suspect. It all must be reviewed again to check for accuracy.
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cassandra and sara's daddy

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #45 on: December 03, 2009, 07:41:02 PM »
There is no excuse for the behavior

au contraire!  lots of excuses  some in this thread
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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #46 on: December 03, 2009, 07:46:49 PM »
Quote
"Scientific" raw data that is not shared, cannot be checked. Data that can't be checked independently, is not serious science. Much more than that, it is not a basis for international gov't policy affecting trillions of dollars and billions of lives. The poverty factor, in fact, makes it a case of life or death and should be held to the same stringency and transparency as a new drug. Regardless for the excuse for not sharing, the result is not acceptable.

We now know that "formatted" data has been manipulated in ways that are not honest. We now know that the model used on that data is corrupted. We now know that independent review of papers and skepticism has been repressed and prevented. We now know that the data was deleted rather than surrender it. Not only unethical, its illegal.

Denier! Stop wibbling and just accept that it's proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. Daring to question the dogma science is prima facia evidence that you are ignorant and backwards. Don't worry though, fed.gov will tell you what to think.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #47 on: December 03, 2009, 07:49:05 PM »
Can we all agree on just one thing?  jfruser gets mad props for the use of "contumely" in a thread title. 
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BridgeRunner

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #48 on: December 03, 2009, 08:15:34 PM »
So am I the only one of us who spent a day or so wondering what fiber density and weight has to do with climate science?

drewtam

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Re: Climategate Part Deux: A Tale of Code, Commentary, and Contumely
« Reply #49 on: December 03, 2009, 11:58:31 PM »
If you are talking about the context of trees, the growth (fiber, weight, size) of tree rings can imply various things about climate for that year. It implies things about temp, rainfall, animal life, etc. Using statistics on multiple trees and hundreds of rings, one can create some rough reconstructions of what past regional climates were. This is extremely useful, since some "civilizations" were still in the stone age a few hundred years ago and weren't writing down good daily measurements for us.
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